Source: Transformation Investor
Editor's note: The original title was "Cold Thinking at the Time of the Blockchain Counterattack-In-depth Dialogue between Meng Yan, Mr. Newton and Wang Wei"
On October 24th, the General Secretary delivered an important speech during the eighteenth collective study, establishing the positioning of the blockchain as an important breakthrough in independent innovation of China's core technology, and requested that the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation be accelerated. This shows that China has elevated the blockchain to the height of its national strategy.
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For the previously controversial and even suppressed blockchain practitioners, this news instantly stirred a huge response. On the one hand, of course, it was joy and encouragement. Everyone was flexing their muscles and preparing to fight. On the other hand, people are still very sudden and even confused about this change. Why did this happen? What are the core goals and intentions of the national development blockchain strategy? Why is it suddenly recognized that the blockchain can play a corresponding role? What will happen to the Chinese blockchain industry? How should we choose a breakthrough and a strategic path so that we can best support the national strategy? Despite the two weeks that have passed, many of these issues remain lingering and lingering.
The Digital Asset Research Institute is a professional private institution that studies blockchain, digital assets, digital finance, and the digital economy. At a time when the blockchain industry is still murky, is not understood by many people, and is not to be seen, the institute organizes insightful people in the industry to conduct in-depth research on many issues. When the international blockchain and digital finance competition bureaus are developing in a direction that is not conducive to China, the research institute speaks out loud and actively offers advice to relevant departments.
In order to gain a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of the country's guiding program for the development of the blockchain industry, three members of the Digital Asset Research Institute Meng Yan, He Baohui, and Wang Wei conducted a closed, long-term discussion in the suburbs of Beijing. The focus of the discussion was how to understand the speech of the general secretary and predict the changes in the blockchain industry. Several important points in the discussion are collated into text in order to communicate with the industry and get advice from insightful people.
Here is a brief introduction to the identities of the three interlocutors.
Mr. Meng Yan is the vice president of technology and academics of the Digital Asset Research Institute, the vice president of CSDN and a partner of Ruixin Capital, and an early advocate of China's token economy. .
He Baohui is the Secretary-General of the Academic and Technical Committee of the Digital Asset Research Institute. He has conducted in-depth research on digital economy, conceptual economics, and self-help organizations on the blockchain. He has published many articles under the pseudonym "Mr. Newton", which has aroused great response.
Mr. Wang Wei is a member of the Academic and Technical Committee of the Digital Asset Research Institute and the founder of Beijing Zhiding Technology Co., Ltd., a cross-border talent in technology and finance. He once worked as the main architect to develop the world's largest distributed bank accounting system at the time. He has been studying blockchain technology for a long time, and turned to the blockchain direction three years ago. He has developed multiple supply chain finance and industrial Internet-related blockchain solutions.
After the writing of this dialogue, under the guidance and adjustment of famous economists Professor Zhu Jiaming and Professor Huang Jiangnan, Dr. Shao Qing of the Digital Asset Research Institute also provided valuable opinions.
1. Are you sure that "your blockchain" is the blockchain advocated by the general secretary?
Meng Yan (hereinafter referred to as "Meng"): When the general secretary's speech was reported, my first reaction was incredible. At the time, I was in a meeting. When I saw the newsletter, I immediately suspended the meeting and opened the full text for colleagues to read it verbatim. The expressions on everyone's faces were almost the same, and it was hard to be surprised in the joy. No one expected this to happen. Almost instantly, the blockchain changed from a controversial and even stigmatized industry to a national strategy. Just a few weeks ago, when I was gathering with my old classmates, someone still advised me to do it in 360 lines. Why did I have to build this unclear, almost cross-street blockchain? "Qing Benjia, how can you be a thief? Some friends have persisted in the blockchain industry for a long time, but then they really can't see the future and can't stand the pressure and leave the industry. I didn't expect such a flip to happen suddenly, it was too sudden and too dramatic.
Wang Wei (hereinafter referred to as "Wang"): A project I just delivered was a blockchain project, but when the news was released, the partners insisted on taking down the word "blockchain" and replacing it with unknown language. The "digital economy" is very depressing. I asked them, could not even mention the pure and pure "blockchain"? They said that in order to avoid suspicion and less trouble. If it weren't for the general secretary to speak, I estimate that in another year and a half, people will be very secretive and embarrassed about the blockchain. The word "blockchain" will completely disappear from the mainstream public view. China will completely miss this round of technology Applied change opportunities.
He Baohui (hereinafter referred to as "He"): Yes, the entire blockchain industry was indeed misunderstood a lot. Just in June of this year, I also wrote an article "Blockchain Practitioners: Being Insulted and Damaged" "People", trying to rectify the names of those who are serious about doing things in the blockchain industry and the industry. At that time, it felt like a small group of people in the boundless snow-capped mountains warmed up in groups. Now everything has changed. To paraphrase a buzzword, the entire industry of the blockchain "counterattacks" instantly.
But apart from the excitement of being recognized, I am more worried about it, because any industry must have the essence and dross. Whether it is a one-size-fits-all blockade or a dead end pursuit, it is unhealthy and irrational behavior. Recently, many people outside my industry mistakenly believed that the promotion of blockchain is the promotion of digital currency. After this news came out, some old classmates who have not contacted me for a long time asked me how to download digital currency exchanges and what currency is recommended. It can also be found that the "Air Coin" and "MLM", which had been a little quiet before, have become active again.
Because the word blockchain has surpassed a technical term that was originally born, and has become an industry term. And this industry is not as concrete and independent as fishery and mining, but has relationships with almost all other industries like the Internet. In addition, the blockchain technology itself is still developing, and the outer edge of the concept of this industry is constantly expanding. Therefore, in the understanding of the public, digital currencies, private currencies, public chains, exchanges, crypto securities, distributed databases, etc. All belong to the "blockchain". In other words, the public believes that advocating blockchain is advocating all of the above.
In the face of this problem, I think we need to "qualify" before discussing the rest, first to clarify the basic concepts, and to clarify what the blockchain advocated by the general secretary contains and does not include.
Meng: Yes, what can be done? What can't be done? Where is the red line? This is the problem that we must first figure out in the next step when we engage in blockchain in China. I also remind the General Secretary to personally determine the blockchain strategy and promote the development of the blockchain. Governments at all levels will do their utmost to ensure that this strategy can be properly implemented without distortion, and individuals will never be allowed to misrepresent their ideas. Some people think that when the General Secretary speaks, he can do whatever he wants. I think the opposite is true. After governments at all levels have clarified their strategies, they will take more severe and resolute measures against acts that undermine the overall situation. The more this time, the more cautious you are, the more fearful you should be.
Wang: The question you are talking about is indeed the first question. Compared to other popular technologies such as AI and the Internet of Things, the understanding of blockchain is much more difficult. People who do n’t understand are the same and do n’t understand. People who claim to know it are 1,000 different. Understanding. So now there is a problem of re-understanding about the blockchain, and even a certain degree of convergence and unification. If the problem is not solved, it must be all kinds of monsters. How to solve the problem? I think we still have to learn and understand the speech of the General Secretary. In this speech, the following aspects are clearly stated:
The first is the technical means of data sharing. At the level of government affairs information and some social basic information, blockchain has been effectively used as a technical means of data sharing, especially the ability to combine data sharing and privacy protection. The unique advantages of chain technology will definitely make it a basic element for the construction of a new generation of data sharing system, which should be led and strongly advocated by the government.
The second is the infrastructure of the trusted system, which is the intended meaning of "blockchain +". As we all know, the Internet as a social information infrastructure has greatly improved the efficiency of information transmission in the entire society. However, the identity authenticity, data validity, and contractual and credit relationships of all social subjects such as governments, enterprises, and individuals cannot be confirmed at the Internet data level. Therefore, we have seen the construction of social credit systems, inter-company e-commerce and financial services Demands in such fields are not fully met in the Internet age. Blockchain is exactly a set of technology systems based on digital identity and data signing / encryption, which can promote the evolution of information infrastructure to a trusted system infrastructure and achieve higher overall social efficiency on the "Internet +".
The third is a model for improving collaboration efficiency, which is an advanced form of blockchain application. Collaboration depends on sharing and credibility. Establishing synergy based on the above two can quickly confirm the identity of the partner and the authenticity of the data, and can confidently submit its data to relevant parties without worrying about privacy leaks. In the event of a dispute, it can quickly obtain the support and ruling of the government, courts and regulatory agencies, thereby greatly reducing the transaction cost and market friction of the entire society, and achieving the ideal state of social coordination.
Finally, from the discussion of “ensuring the orderly and efficient flow of production factors in the region”, you can feel that the speech is clear on the areas where blockchain technology is best at — asset generation, management, transfer, and transaction. Supportive attitude. In the words we are familiar with, it is the use of "tokens". On the other hand, judging from the definite term "in the region", it is implicitly expressed that for the use of the national and even the global scope, such as the digitization of the renminbi, it is still necessary to plan and deploy uniformly.
He: Pharaoh has refined the points advocated by the General Secretary in his speech, so I will elaborate on the most misunderstood part from another angle.
Private digital currencies are not within the scope of this initiative. Although some illegal financing activities such as ICOs use blockchain technology, they have nothing to do with the blockchain advocated by the general secretary, and the government has previously clearly expressed resistance to these activities.
Please note that I specifically used the term "private digital currency". Because when everyone talks, they are used to the word "digital currency", but from our contacts, we find that people in different circles have completely different understandings of the term "digital currency", which has led to many misunderstandings. For example, when people in the traditional currency circle mention digital currencies, they will directly think of native digital assets such as BTC and ETH; while officials mention digital currencies, in fact, they specifically refer to legal digital currencies issued by the central bank.
In recent months, the central bank has frequently voiced support for digital currencies, and some speculators in the currency circle have also taken this opportunity to sell their digital currencies to unknown "eating people". Many people are deceived. The state allows the manufacture of knives, but it is naturally not allowed to cut people with a knife. From the previous writing on the paper to the on-chain record, changes in technology alone cannot change the nature of illegal financing or ringing money. We must be alert to these illegal acts under the guise of blockchain.
We must clearly see that the current state supports legal digital currency, digitalization of assets based on blockchain technology, and the circulation of digital assets that meet the requirements of the regulatory system and promote economic growth.
Meng: I have read the speech of the General Secretary dozens of times. It is really rich in content and full of words. It is not easy to fully understand. I feel that there are some directions where the current positioning is unclear.
Such as mining power. Computing power mining is a common mechanism adopted by global blockchains such as Bitcoin. The large scale of computing power means that it has the power to speak internationally and make rules. In this sense, as long as Bitcoin is still the most recognized digital currency in the world, the mining industry should at least allow it, and even support it. On the other hand, the government-involved, real-oriented blockchain does not require hashing power at all. From the perspective of the token economy, computing power is not a good standard for measuring contribution in most incentive models. In addition, the energy consumption in this field is huge, and it has been criticized a lot. Not long ago, the National Development and Reform Commission removed virtual currency "mining" activities from the "eliminated industries" list, but this does not mean that this is an industry encouraged by the national strategy. At present, China's virtual currency mining industry chain is growing in excitement, and a large amount of capital is lining up to enter it. Instead, I think there is a crisis in it.
The second uncertain direction is native digital currencies and their transactions. In the future, there will be a large number of compliant digital assets that have undergone strict audits and certifications, as well as compliant and licensed digital asset exchanges in various industries and across industries. Existing securities and futures exchanges are also likely to increase the number The type of asset transaction. However, the status of native digital currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as their trading behavior, especially the exchange, will determine how the government will position itself in the future. Not long ago, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission issued a position paper on the supervision of virtual asset trading platforms, which may provide a solution to this problem. Generally speaking, I am optimistic, and I believe that the regulatory authorities will come up with a set of supervision methods to allow native digital currency transactions within a framework. But whether this industry will shuffle is worth paying attention to.
The third ambiguous direction is the public chain. Because Academician Chen Chun who gave a lecture to the Politburo this time expressed on many occasions that the public chain is not suitable for China's supervision, the outside world generally believes that the blockchain that the country strongly advocates is mainly the alliance chain. But in the blockchain industry, there is fierce debate on this issue. In the first two years, proponents of the public chain criticized the alliance chain as a pseudo-blockchain. In addition, the alliance chain couldn't come up with a successful case in particular, so the alliance chain was dying. Now that the situation has reversed, the proponents of the public chain's turn need to prove their supervisability. If this work is not done well, the public chain may be suppressed in the short term.
He: At the end, I would like to make a summary. It does not include ICO, private digital currency, supply chain finance, legal deposit, government affairs and other "industrial blockchains" that are closely integrated with the real economy. The three major hot spots of the blockchain industry are still unclear.
2. What exactly does the country want to do with blockchain?
Meng: After the news was announced, there were some ridicule and sarcasm overseas, saying that the blockchain is useless, and this time it was upgraded to a national strategy. It is inexplicable that the leadership has been "flickered" and will repeat the " P2P ". I think these arguments, in addition to the inherent malicious derogation against China, still reflect the surprise and incomprehension of this major decision. So we should analyze how this major change happened? What is the logic and core intention behind it? What do you guys think?
Wang: In this regard, I really haven't made a particularly thorough and comprehensive analysis. I can only talk about the phenomena I have observed and some personal feelings.
The first feeling is that after this speech, not only did each of the participants in the previous blockchain field have their own different interpretations, but many people who had not worked in this field in the past also quickly responded to "blocks." "What is a chain, what can it do, and what should it do" to discuss and explore, as if the number of evangelists suddenly increased significantly. I think in general, we should still feel the determination of the country on this matter, and catch up. The industry is still so small and we have more strength to join. It is also a blessing.
Secondly, there are indeed many interpretations that are biased from our perspective. For example: Some people think it is to stimulate the economy in the short term. Probably because Xinhua News Agency's report clearly stated that "it is necessary to clarify the main attack direction and increase investment". In other words, the state will allocate a certain amount of financial resource support to promote the development of the blockchain industry from a strategic height, and it will definitely drive social funds to invest in this direction. However, if this is understood as a short-term economic stimulus, then the leadership's strategic positioning and strategic patience on the blockchain will be underestimated. The blockchain industry is still very immature. Strictly speaking, it can not be called an industry. It is not an area with a strong employment pulling effect. If the economy is to be stimulated in the short term, the blockchain is by no means preferred.
There is a more interesting point, which is that it is nonsense to advertise the forthcoming central bank digital currency DC / EP. Not to mention that the central bank does not need to advertise when issuing digital currencies. Even if it is to advertise, there is no such high standard.
As for the risks, it must be risky to be realistic. For example, "P2P" is an example of a situation where the objective laws of finance are not fully grasped, and it is difficult to end in the end. Of course, we do not want to repeat it in the blockchain industry. In addition, the blockchain industry also has a special feature, which is what you and Baohui mentioned above. Many of the discouraged and unclear content are also part of this big industry, which adds a lot of uncertainty. So whether the blockchain industry can avoid the same mistakes and prevent food waste is indeed a serious challenge.
In short, I think the blockchain is by no means a potent medicine, but a slow medicine. In the speech, the general secretary explicitly proposed "blockchain +", which is to use the blockchain in various industries and make use of the blockchain. To solve some persistent problems in the Chinese economy from the perspective of structure and production relations. In a project at the beginning of the year, partners said: "We have accumulated data on the blockchain for three years, and when it comes out, everyone must recognize its value." This is the attitude that should be adopted to implement blockchain. And determination.
He: Although this decision came earlier and more violently than we expected, the overall picture is logical. First of all, I declare that I do not have any so-called insider of this major decision, but just do some logical analysis based on public information. I talk about three points, one is "can't be stuck", the other is "going out to form alliances", and the third is "exercising internal strength".
First, do not get stuck: the decentralized nature of the blockchain is to go to the US technology monopoly center.
We must realize that China's external environment is the most complicated and severe in decades. To put it plainly, the United States has told the world very clearly that it is necessary to contain China. For us, competition with the United States is a basic situation that our generation of Chinese will face in the next few years and even decades. There is no need to be lucky.
In the Sino-US trade war we are experiencing, we have seen various tactics such as tariff increases, purchase restrictions, and sales restrictions in the United States. If we say that increasing tariffs and restricting the purchase of Chinese products can be solved through market competition or even abandoning the US market, although it will harm the Chinese economy, it will not be fatal. So restricting sales to China, especially the cooperation and sales of products in the high-tech field, has made Chinese entrepreneurs and leaders feel a deep sense of weakness.
On April 16, 2018, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will prohibit U.S. companies from selling any electronic technology or communications components to Chinese telecommunications equipment manufacturer ZTE. 20% ~ 30% The components without substitutes are missing. In a split second, this second largest company in the field of telecommunications equipment manufacturing in China with revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan is facing life and death issues. For China, In the game that globally seized the 5G market, it was easy to kill a leading player. However, this is the beginning. In May 2019, Huawei, hailed as "fortunately, we have a Huawei" by the Chinese, was also cut off by American technology and parts.
On the other hand, when the United States imposed sanctions on Iran, it cut off SIWFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) from serving the Iranian central bank and blocked the bank's communication with other banks around the world. Cutting off all the blood vessels that flow to an organ in the body is just as severe.
Chips, lithium batteries, the Internet, the financial system … I really found out when I was fighting with myself, because of the limitations of various card-neck technologies, no matter how big and proud the business giants are, they are like towering into the cloud but the foundation is Stable and dangerous building. At this time, both the entrepreneur and the leadership have realized that they must break the boat, no matter how much the cost, there must be core technologies for independent innovation.
Speaking of which, it is not difficult to understand the importance of blockchain decentralization. Blockchain can disintegrate the centralized financial system that the United States has meticulously operated, build a new system that does not require permission, and freely participate in and leave freely. For the next generation of infrastructure-level technologies, we must participate in and even guide the development of technology from the beginning, insist on independent innovation, and no longer be constrained. So I remember that the Secretary General ’s speech just came out that day, an entrepreneur in the United States tweeted that blockchain is a space race of our generation. I don't think it's excessive to say so.
Second, go global and form alliances: establish a China-led economic cooperation body.
Since Trump came to power, he has been "retreating" and repeatedly using American hegemony to suppress other countries. Under this pattern, many people predict that China will have to go, and also must establish a system parallel to the US-led, similar SWIFT, similar chips, similar medicine, and so on. Of course, there are not many such systems, and it is likely that in the end the world will only form two sets of systems led by the United States and China.
In such a system, relevant countries need to work closely together. How to build trust and reduce transaction costs has become the biggest problem. This is exactly the characteristic of the technology such as blockchain. The blockchain-based digital economic system is open, transparent, and scalable, and can effectively connect value information between different economies; while blockchain-based digital currencies and tokens can be conducted through incentive compatibility. The optimal allocation of resources within the economy tends to be Pareto optimal.
In addition, the economy formed based on the blockchain will break through the traditional geographical latitude restrictions and tend to be vertical industrialized. An industrial economic community is formed in a part of an industry, and the industrial economic communities are superimposed across different regions, which promotes multi-dimensional and close cooperation of the regional economies, and eventually forms an economic cooperation body led by China.
Third, practice internal skills: promote China's transformation and upgrade to a higher level of digital economy.
China's digital economy accounts for one-third of GDP and is at the forefront of the world in many fields. This is also one of the proudest achievements of ordinary Chinese. Because we ourselves are overtaking in this area, we need to pay special attention to how to maintain our advantage. To maintain the advantage, there is no other way. We must adopt advanced technology and invest more force to accelerate development than our competitors, even those who seem to be behind us. Go ahead bravely.
With the advent of the blockchain, the contours of the next-generation global digital economy and digital finance have gradually emerged. Blockchain can raise the integration of information to a new level, so it can greatly reduce transaction costs, promote collaboration between different stakeholders, and effectively monitor and regulate participants. This is exactly what is needed to promote China's digital economy upgrade. I think the decision-makers should see this.
In general, this is the inevitable result of open discussions and open exchanges on blockchain and the digital economy since June.
Meng: I would also add that. Blockchain is a weapon to modernize the national governance system and governance capabilities.
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee proposed the modernization of national governance system and governance capacity. Many people say this is the fifth modernization. My experience is actually to strengthen China's soft power, unleash the potential of China's system, and meet severe challenges.
The blockchain strategy should be understood at this height. The level of corporate and social governance in our country is not high enough. Many people think that the Chinese government has great power and strong execution ability. In fact, it means that the government is very efficient in the things it focuses on. For the management of a large number of daily affairs, in fact, there is still a large gap compared with the level of advanced countries.
Blockchain technology has very different meanings for civilian use and government use. The government enters the blockchain consensus system with public power, which can greatly accelerate the efficiency and authority of consensus formation. For example, if a blockchain for talent education and education and training resumes is to be done by the people, slowly accumulate credit and attract more partners to join, it may take ten or eight years to slowly form a consensus. However, if the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security participate, a consensus can be quickly formed. The government's participation can push the blockchain into many previously inaccessible areas, forming an efficient global social governance network system.
Of course, many people will worry that such a governance network is still highly centralized, but in fact, due to the characteristics of the blockchain itself, nodes in the network can have governments, as well as supervisory agencies, enterprises, media, universities and other societies Institutions, everyone can build, manage, govern, collaborate and share benefits based on rules. It is also hoped that the government can recognize that the blockchain represents this intelligent and more advanced governance model. Tools change, so do methods.
From a governance perspective, this tool is certainly very efficient. Let me give an example. The General Secretary said that "the deep integration of the blockchain and the real economy should be solved, and difficulties in financing small and medium-sized enterprises' loans, difficulty in controlling risks in banks, and difficulties in supervision by departments" should be resolved. Many people don't understand, how can a blockchain achieve this? In fact, today's SME loan financing is difficult, largely because banks can only issue loans based on collateral or guarantees, and SMEs often have no collateral, and no one wants to guarantee him. More importantly, the accounts of SMEs It is often confusing. Banks want to issue loans based on real trade backgrounds, but it is difficult to determine the authenticity of evidence such as contracts, warehouse receipts, and bills of lading. Risk control in banks is difficult, and natural loans for SMEs are difficult.
This matter is also a problem abroad. How to deal with it? The key is "cross data validation." Recently, General Electric was shorted, and the short-selling survey report has a significant difference from similar surveys in the past, which is the introduction of "cross-data validation". The report clearly states that short sellers paid for the use of data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) and AM Best, a leading US rating and insurance data agency, and interviewed eight of the major insurance companies among GE counterparties The statutory financial statements submitted to the relevant state insurance committees found that the data on both ends were not at all correct. In other words, the cross-validation of the data of the eight companies exposed GE's fraudulent behavior.
If you can identify the fake, you can prove the true. If we build a blockchain that integrates supply chain, logistics, transportation, warehousing, commercial contracts, invoices, financial statements and other elements based on the blockchain, multiple nodes and authoritative information sources are required to cross data on corporate accounts and real trading behavior. Verification, then the cost of counterfeiting will be too high to bear, the real information will be identified, and financial institutions such as banks can safely and boldly support enterprises based on the real information.
Therefore, through this global network, not only can it be well regulated and governed, but it can also serve enterprises and the public. When a country makes a decision, it can promote implementation with very high efficiency, and promote reform and transformation. Everyone worked hard for more than ten or twenty years to build China's most efficient and powerful blockchain business and social governance infrastructure in the world, which can fundamentally change the governance mechanism of Chinese society and create the best in the world. Business, entrepreneurship and living environment will also greatly improve the integrity of our society. This matter is really a century-old plan, and it is worth the efforts of our generation.
He: It can be seen that the blockchain has strategic significance both internally and externally. Internally, it can achieve smart government affairs to improve governance, and externally, it can weaken hegemony and establish a new economic community.
3. Why is it a good thing to promote blockchain to a national strategy?
Meng: After the speech of the General Secretary, the entire industry was in jubilation and it felt like spring was coming. However, some people are worried that when ordinary people and even most government officials and entrepreneurs are still unfamiliar with the blockchain, the country uses such high specifications and strength to publicize and promote, it is easy to inspire Huge industry bubble. I think this is a question that we blockchain people should answer positively.
He: I think this kind of worry is normal. This is actually a universal problem. Many people are fundamentally opposed to the industrial policies of any country. Controversy between two top economics professors also occurred in previous years. I guess, the person you said that thinks that doing so undermines the market mechanism, also thinks that Internet companies burn money to undermine the market mechanism. But now we look back. If Didi, Meituan, and Hungry hadn't burned billions or even billions of dollars, would these companies still be alive today? It must have been killed by competitors. Therefore, I think that the "Great Leap Forward" behavior of burning money is not terrible. As long as you see the direction clearly and can afford the risk of failure, you should invest, and you should invest vigorously.
I also talked about just now that blockchain is a space race of our generation. It cannot control the core technology. It will still face the risk of being stuck at the neck again in the future, and it is not just a "cracking neck", it may be "broken neck "It will be fatal. I believe that the general secretary must have carefully studied and judged the team to understand and firm this direction. Now that the direction is clear, it is better to invest heavily at the beginning of the industry than to mature the industry in the future. It is better to invest again when sanctioned by other countries.
Indeed, as many people have said, the mention of national strategic heights in the early days of the industry will definitely create market bubbles. But just like the development of the Internet, the development of any industry will actually go through an irrational bubble period. After this period, most companies will be eliminated and washed away, but what remains will be the future bulls. Mentioning the height of the national strategy will not change the bubble period itself, but it will accelerate the bubble period to come earlier and have a shorter duration. For leaders at this time, it is a "probability of spending money to accelerate gambling". There is not a large deviation in the probability of a sufficient number of samples. After the bubble period is accelerated, independent innovation and the world's leading blockchain infrastructure can be precipitated.
And the improvement of this national strategy is definitely good for the blockchain practitioners who have made some achievements in serious work. On the one hand, rectifying the name, not being too afraid to talk to anyone who is doing blockchain, and people around them are more able to understand and support; on the other hand, it also means a lot of traffic, whether it is capital flow, business flow, or talent flow I believe that in the next year, there will be an influx of madness, and practitioners should seize this time window.
But this also means that the giants will enter the market one after another, and their advantages in human, capital, technology and other aspects will reduce the opportunity space for small entrepreneurs. In other words, the industry has left few opportunities for grassroots.
Wang: Logically speaking, many people worry that bubbles are worried that the bubble can't keep anything in the past. The essence is that they can't understand the unique value of blockchain technology.
The world's technology can be roughly divided into two categories, one is "good work" technology, and the other is "good governance" technology. The technique of good work is to improve the efficiency of a single point, and people can understand it at the first sight. Good governance technology is to build and coordinate relationships between people and improve overall collaboration efficiency. Many times, the improvement of overall collaboration efficiency is inconsistent with the interests of the individual. Therefore, don't say that this technology is difficult to imagine when you don't see it. It's not easy to understand when you see it. The entire market economy system and monetary system can be considered as typical representatives of good governance technologies.
Blockchain is also a typical good governance technology. Its way of improving efficiency is counter-intuitive. In short, it is to sacrifice local efficiency and pay seemingly unnecessary costs. However, the resulting trust relationship promotes the overall efficiency of social collaboration. Promotion. The specific means are that the identity can be confirmed, the data cannot be forged, and the behavior needs to be responsible. Isn't this very similar to the constraints on legal entities in a market economy? It is just that the blockchain has used technology to solidify these models.
We can see that the cutting-edge information technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things mentioned by the General Secretary in this speech have all been mentioned at the national strategic level. Because the development of the economy mainly depends on improving efficiency, the technology of "good work" is relatively easy to be upgraded to the level of national strategy, and it has indeed seen significant results. However, in terms of social governance, such as the construction of credit systems, SME financing, and intellectual property protection, we have always lacked effective technical means.
Today, the inefficiency of social collaboration has become a major shortcoming. In this case, it is useless to increase the local efficiency. You mention efficiency at the highest point at every point. If the cooperation between the two is still stumbling, the overall social operation cost is still high.
Blockchain technology is just the best candidate to make up for this shortcoming, so it is a very correct and timely decision to promote it to the national strategic level.
History has shown that people are particularly difficult to recognize the superiority of such rules and institutional technologies, and they need vision, foresight, and great wisdom, and even more time. For example, in a planned economy system, there are some imbalances and shortages. Managers will naturally think that management is not enough and not tight enough. Instinctively, they will strengthen management and control. No one can think of another idea and relax. For a moment, it is more effective to plan and control a market economy and let the market mechanism work. I think this is also a misunderstanding of most skeptics of the blockchain. These questions can only be solved through practice, especially the use of incentive mechanisms in practice, not purely administrative means to implement, otherwise Depart from the original intention of this technology.
Meng: Because most people are a small part of economic activities, they only analyze the gains and losses from the scope that they can see. Therefore, they cannot understand the technology that improves the overall efficiency of the blockchain, nor can they understand what Baohui said. The "probability of betting on the whole will eventually accelerate the maturity of national infrastructure construction."
From the perspective of the overall situation, we must proceed from the overall perspective, so we have the same view, and believe that upgrading the blockchain to a national strategy is generally a good thing! And the government's ability to advance vigorously without being understood by most people also reflects the wisdom and determination of our national leaders.
4. Where are the opportunities?
He: So where are our opportunities? Or in which direction should I go?
Wang: I think that the application fields related to the corporate credit system, especially the SME credit system, will have the earliest and fastest development, such as supply chain finance, intellectual property protection and transactions. On the one hand, because the blockchain technology matches these scenarios, for example: data on-chain and smart contracts can promote cross-data verification and provide effective data support for supply chain finance; real-time data certification can help intellectual property original companies in a timely manner Registration and confirmation of rights, simplifying the provision of evidence and promoting active trading.
On the other hand, the incentive mechanism of these application scenarios is relatively clear. For example, accounts receivable financing and warehouse receipt pledge directly provide enterprises with "liquidity incentives", and enterprises only need to pay for lower operating costs of timely data on-chain. Intellectual property rights are stored on the chain in a timely manner, just like purchasing insurance, usually paying some small costs, winning lawsuits or selling for cash at a critical moment, and obtaining large gains. These models are consistent with the concept of token incentives. Things that conform to economic laws must develop faster.
Meng: I'm in the token economy. The nature of the token economy is an organizational management model, which is characterized by the ability to motivate contributors fairly, efficiently, and transparently with trusted digital assets and trusted algorithm rules within a collaborative body in the Internet space, thereby expanding collaboration. Scale, improve collaboration, and create greater value. I have always firmly believed that the token economy is the most important, sexiest application of the blockchain, and has the closest relationship with ordinary people. It is also the focus of entrepreneurs. During the period when the blockchain was at its lowest point, the token economy was still able to figure out a set of legal and compliant play, and proved its effectiveness in practice. I believe that the improvement of the external environment will allow the token economy to stretch its muscles. Make a difference.
He: The maturity of the blockchain technology infrastructure will definitely accelerate the large-scale implementation of the organizational form from the Association of Organizations (ACO)-an algorithm (not manual) to allocate resources within the organization. The organizational boundaries of the traditional company system will be broken, and the number of people in an organization will tend to be dynamic. Compared with the original company, the number of people is likely to grow exponentially. Such organizations will go beyond geographic latitudes and move toward industry latitudes. It is conceivable that each of us will belong to multiple such self-help organizations at the same time in the future. The token is the blood in the sub-organization. I believe next, we will see some enterprises transition to the form of self-organization.
5. Technology is still developing, learning still needs hard work
Meng: In fact, the current blockchain technology is still under development and the infrastructure is not mature enough. The whole society will definitely invest huge resources in the field of blockchain infrastructure to support its development. Pharaoh, what other main directions do you think blockchain has on the technical level?
Wang: The theoretical research on infrastructure, core technologies and new types of collaboration will usher in a golden period of development. I think there are several technical goals.
The first is digital identity. Based on the blockchain's Self-Sovereign Identity and its management system, this is the core, most basic, and most important technical infrastructure and digital resources in the blockchain era.
The second is a high-performance, highly scalable blockchain. Without this infrastructure, the blockchain cannot enter a truly large-scale application area.
The third is blockchain security technology. This point was elaborated in the speech of the General Secretary. Without sufficient security, the entire system of the blockchain will collapse.
The fourth is the theory and norms of asset standardization, digitization and tokenization. Without this system, real-world physical assets cannot be mapped onto the blockchain.
The fifth is the design of the token incentive model. The design of the token incentive model is actually an upgraded version of the game theory mechanism design. At the current level of game theory mechanism design, it is possible to write a dissertation, which is not enough to guide the practice of commercial competition. Now the blockchain and the token economy have suddenly brought this issue to the enterprise. Enterprises need to use it now because of competition needs. So a big breakthrough is needed in this field.
The sixth is related to the economics and monetary theory of digital currency. This will be a highly complex hot issue.
These are the few I can see, and certainly not comprehensive. It is precisely because such "good governance" technologies such as the blockchain have appeared very little in history, so it is difficult for everyone to find other cases as a reference for his development goals, evolution paths and final forms. For example, too much emphasis on improving performance is likely to be a development misunderstanding. Only if the whole society clearly uses it for technology governance, can it find more effective application scenarios, put forward reasonable requirements for the development of the underlying technology, point out the right direction, and the development of infrastructure can be more efficient and benign interactive.
He: It can be seen that blockchain technology is still in its early stages of development, and there are still a lot of exciting innovations waiting for us to discover. We must continue to learn so as not to get out of the car. (Finish)