On December 20th, at the 2020 Digital Technology Annual Conference and the January One Financial New Finance Annual Conference, Zhu Jiaming, Dean and Economist of the Digital Asset Research Institute, took the title "The Decline and Inspiration of Wall Street, Silicon Valley, WTO, and IMF". Speech.
The following is a compilation of speech content, organized and released by Babbitt.
good morning, everyone. First of all, before I start my keynote speech, I would like to ask you, as 2019 is about to pass today, if you choose, what are the 3 major events that will affect the future in 2019?
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My answer is:
The first thing is Elon Musk ’s satellite launch plan. In May, November, and December of this year, he launched more than 10,000 satellites into the space 400 kilometers above the ground. Astronomers are very angry about this, because it creates an unprecedented pollution of space, which makes it difficult for them to observe space. But this matter is very significant, changing the spatial distribution of human communications.
The second thing is the Libra white paper that Facebook released in June. There is only one white paper that has aroused the attention and discussion of all circles in the world. Because Libra represents the concept of a new type of stablecoin under the digital economy and the possible impact on the existing world currency system.
The third thing is that Google announced in October a "key milestone" in quantum computing, including the latest Sycamore processor with 53 superconducting qubits that can run the world ’s most powerful supercomputer Summit in 200 seconds. Calculations that can be completed in 10,000 years have realized "quantum hegemony". Although IBM questioned them, however, quantum computing was pushed to a new stage in history,
Judging the significance of historical events, you can't stand at that time, you need to judge after several years what happened to you right now. Does it still have influence? I think these three things are still important next year, next year, three years, five years, and even ten years later. It has changed the course of science and technology, changed the economic form and the basis of people's daily life.
In this context, I have entered today's theme: the decline and inspiration of Wall Street, Silicon Valley, WTO, and IMF. I chose four symbolic symbols. Wall Street represents capital, Silicon Valley represents a combination of technology and venture capital, WTO represents the framework of a global world economic order, and the IMF represents the world financial order . What changes have happened to these 4 symbolic symbols?
In the mid-1980s, I first came to New York. I first walked from Columbia University to Wall Street and it took more than 2 hours. Because at that time, when talking about China's economic system reform, it was necessary to understand the capital market and Wall Street. Wall Street has a history of more than 200 years from 1792 to today. Its representative figures include Rockefeller and Morgan. The movie "The Wolf of Wall Street", released several years ago, reflects the people and affairs of Wall Street not long ago.
Wall Street, as a symbol of capital, maintained its 100-year-old glory in the 20th century. However, Wall Street has and continues to decline. Looking at the Nasdaq's index, Wall Street peaked in 2000 and then began to weaken. Although it has rebounded, the recession trend has been difficult to reverse.
What we want to discuss is, at what point did Wall Street begin to turn? The bubble of the IT industry in 2000 changed the technical foundation that supported Wall Street. The financial crisis triggered by the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis also changed the institutional foundation that supported Wall Street. A representative photo is the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States on August 15, 2008.
The cause of the decline of Wall Street is very profound. The fundamental reason is that the companies, technology and capital that support Wall Street cannot continue to combine in the original way. The traditional capital model is under increasing pressure to change, however, it has lost its internal mechanism and new forces to achieve change.
It was in this context that the occupation of Wall Street took place in 2011. An in-depth discussion of this movement is the intensification of the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States. It is also because of this movement that the concept of "inclusive finance" has begun.
The lesson from Wall Street is that capital markets and financial institutions themselves are facing internal and external pressures from technology to institutions. The spatially highly concentrated model of capital exchange markets and financial institutions will not only continue to decline, but will most likely enter history in the not-so-nine future.
Silicon Valley gathers the world's most important companies. If the GDP generated by Silicon Valley is aggregated, it is equivalent to the 19th largest economy in the world. Supporting Silicon Valley is technology, culture, and capital, which have achieved effective or even perfect combinations. However, today's Silicon Valley has entered a middle-aged crisis and is difficult to reverse.
Now the biggest problem is that with the development of science and technology, the general Internet technology has no great value, the high-tech represented by Silicon Valley has become ordinary technology, and Silicon Valley itself cannot complete the technology system with the Internet as the main industry to hard technology and update , Higher technology changes.
The combination of technology and venture capital represented by Silicon Valley has completely broken. Because of the high cost, the motivation for innovation is seriously insufficient. The stock market that represents and influences Silicon Valley has been in a prolonged downturn. Yahoo's decline is the earliest sign, and both HP and Apple are facing such problems. With the massive loss of talent, Silicon Valley has begun to decentralize, and talent has migrated to Seattle, Vancouver, Los Angeles, and even emerging market countries.
On the other hand, a big change is the rise of the black technology army represented by Musk. Silicon Valley has traditionally not paid enough attention to imagination and solving human survival problems, and Silicon Valley has not realized the "hard technology" proposed in science fiction.
What did Silicon Valley's decline tell us? Yesterday's hard technology may become soft technology in a few years. Yesterday's high technology may become low technology in a few years. This is the most characteristic and vitality of science and technology. It becomes increasingly difficult to deal with. Changing this passive state is a prerequisite challenge for modern scientific and technological progress and economic development.
Then we need to think about which technologies are "hard technologies" that can have a direct impact on human future development? I made a simple list: artificial intelligence, aerospace, biotechnology (including fund technology, brain science), optoelectronic chips, information technology (content subscience, blockchain, IoT, big data), new materials, new Energy, smart manufacturing.
The WTO (World Trade Organization), formerly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade signed in 1947, together with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, has become the "three pillars" of today's world economic system. Before China's entry into the WTO, there was a fever in the WTO. Many universities have even established related research institutions, and everyone is discussing and studying the WTO. In fact, China has also become a beneficiary of WTO entry.
However, in recent years, the WTO has encountered and is facing unprecedented challenges. Its influence is not increasing, but decreasing.
why? If we look at the basic structure of the WTO, we will find a major flaw in the design of the WTO. The WTO is only applicable to traditional, physical products-based trade, and cannot complete the essential problem of the current world trade's transition from physical trade to service trade. For example, intellectual property trade is becoming an important part of world trade. However, the WTO framework cannot carry out fundamental reforms for this purpose.
In addition, from the analysis of the WTO system, it cannot adapt to the new market countries, especially China's changing status in the world economy, lags behind the new pattern of world economic development, and cannot adapt to the new trend of economic development. The Sino-US trade war has revealed the flaws in the WTO's system and operating mechanism. China has also proposed three major crises of the WTO.
What is certain is that the WTO is indeed declining. Fundamentally speaking, the WTO is going through life and death in terms of how to maintain global free trade.
The IMF was born in 1944 and was established with the World Bank after the Bretton Woods conference. The difference between the World Bank (WB) and the IMF is that the World Bank initially solved the problem of loans to post-war reconstruction countries, and later focused on solving the problem of long-term development projects in developing countries. The IMF mainly solves the problem of maintaining world financial stability, especially after 1971, coordinating the exchange rates of countries around the world to keep them under control.
In the design framework of the IMF, there are fundamental flaws: the structure of fund shares and voting rights shares basically cannot adapt to the actual development of the world economy, resulting in a serious disconnect. In particular, the status of an economic entity such as China in the world economy and the status of the IMF are completely out of balance. In addition, the IMF's financial and monetary resources are insufficient, and the cost of obtaining financial and monetary resources continues to rise. At present, the loan capacity is only $ 1 trillion. In terms of system design, the IMF organization is controlled by the United States and the European Union. The highest positions have been in the hands of Europeans for a long time, so it is difficult to gain the trust and respect of most countries in the world.
In recent years, both the World Bank and the IMF have paid little attention to the rising digital economy and digital currency, and have few objective and scientific research, even full of arrogance. They were unable to cope with the goals of "financing financial inclusion", including the Libra white paper, and did not even make any valuable and influential voices. This means that the IMF is falling behind.
The final conclusion: Wall Street, Silicon Valley, WTO and IMF are declining, and the speed of decline is still accelerating significantly. The post-war "capital-technology-trade-currency" combination represented by Wall Street, Silicon Valley, WTO, and IMF is shaking, even showing signs of disintegration, with the support of capital, technology, trade, and monetary order. The essential reason for the decline of Wall Street, Silicon Valley, WTO, and IMF is that the chain of interests they constitute has seriously hindered the possibility of reform and change, and was unable to adapt to changes in the shape of capital, technology, trade and currency.
Finally, it is important to emphasize that among the many challenges to Wall Street, Silicon Valley, WTO and IMF, the development of science and technology, especially the development of hard technology, has played a direct role in the decline of Wall Street, Silicon Valley, WTO and IMF. This is The system designers of the year did not fully anticipate and underestimated the existing policy makers.