Babbitt Column | Development in the Blockchain Industry Starts with Finding Your Own Belief
The blockchain industry is an emerging industry and a rapidly developing industry. Because it is an emerging industry, all future development directions and paths are not clear; because it is a rapidly developing industry, the changes are very drastic. At present, there are very few industries on the market that have such a large cognitive difference in the minds of people like blockchain. One is considered as a MLM industry, the other is considered a strategic emerging industry; the other is considered It was because the air couldn't land. For a while, all Internet companies seemed to be involved. These fluctuations corresponded to the price. The overall market rose more than 10 times, and the decline fell more than 90%.
In such a volatile industry, if you don't want to get lost, and then find your own direction, the most important thing is to find the starting point of everything. I call this starting point: believable.
Reliance sounds like a word in success studies, but success studies generally say believe, not trustworthiness. In my opinion, there is a little difference between believing and believing. In many cases, believing is useless. Only believing is useful. What is faith? In Li Xiaolai's words, believing is 120% belief, and even if 20% is hit, it is still 100% belief.
Those who have faith are totally different from those who do not. Without believing, you can only follow the flow. All your understanding can basically only come from the media and the outside world. People who have believing have found their certainty in a certain place, and found a real foothold. From this standpoint, you can build your own principles and values.
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So in this era of high-speed blockchain change, what are the things that can become our faith?
2. Some people believe in the laws of science and technology development.
Some people believe in science and technology. They believe that the development of science and technology is traceable.
As Kevin Kelly said in the book "Necessity", "The form of the Internet-a worldwide network of networks-is a necessity, but the specific implementation of the Internet we use is not necessary. The Internet It may be commercial, not non-profit; he may be national, not international; he may also be private, not public. Phone systems that transmit voice information over long distances are inevitable, but the iPhone is not Four-wheeled vehicles are inevitable, but SUVs are not; instant information is inevitable, but Twitter is not. "
These "necessary" things are the track of the development of science and technology, and the future that science and technology will definitely reach.
Back in real life, if the nature of the Internet is connection, the biggest benefit that the Internet brings to us is that the cost of information transmission approaches 0; then the blockchain will take this connection one step further, and its biggest The advantage is that the cost of value transfer approaches zero and the transaction cost approaches zero. Many people's whole-hearted investment in blockchain stems from their conviction.
If we believe that the core function of the blockchain is value transfer, which is to reduce transaction costs to zero, we can continue to deduce based on this: If we want to make transaction costs zero, then there is a first condition: The assets themselves must be digitized. Only digital assets can be efficiently circulated, and transaction costs can become zero. If the assets are still paper-based, or rely on paper-based in many aspects, and the transfer and confirmation of assets need to be confirmed offline, then this cost is too high, the friction of the transaction is too great, and it is difficult to be effective Reduce transaction costs. So through the initial conviction, we can roughly deduce the direction of future asset digitization.
Similarly, if the transaction cost of assets is to be reduced to zero, there is also a premise that there must not be too many obstacles when transferring assets to assets, that is, there cannot be too many centers and intermediaries. Because basically every transaction goes through a center, the efficiency of the transaction will drop a lot. If a process needs to go through 3 to 5 centers, the efficiency of the entire process may be orders of magnitude lower. For example, I often give examples. When we buy or sell stocks, we must first go through the exchange, then through the central securities registration and settlement agency, and then through the bank. When I have to wait for T + 1 to get the account, where is the business card? Stuck in stock settlement. When we send money across borders. Can be real-time in China, why does it take so long for cross-border remittances? Stuck there? Stuck in cross-border settlement.
In fact, from a purely technical perspective, these problems should not exist, and these businesses should be processed in seconds. However, because the business has crossed too many centers, in the future, if this transaction is to be made smoother and the transaction cost is reduced to zero, Then these intermediate levels should be greatly reduced. Under this premise, it is necessary to ensure that the entire business process still needs to go through. This requires business stakeholders to share a database on business-related aspects. When needed, it is only necessary to call relevant data through smart contracts. No need to pass around, no need to pass from one center to another. Therefore, through the most primitive belief, we can roughly deduce the development direction of the public database.
In fact, it can be further deduced. For example, when the center and the intermediary have been greatly reduced, the original ownership of the data stored in the center belonged to the center. Who then owns the current ownership? At that time, naturally, it can only belong to the user himself. The user owns the data. When the other party needs to use your data, you need your own authorization. All this is natural.
When you find a faithfulness, you can derive it based on this faithfulness, and launch a lot of directions based on this point. A believable letter can deduce several directions. When you find several believable letters in the industry, these several believable letters are superimposed, and you may build your own thinking model and framework, and find your own certainty. This certainty is the reassurance that you are sitting firmly in the Diaoyutai in a fast-growing industry. The more rapidly the industry changes, the more you need to find this certainty.
Some people believe in national policy
After all, there are few people who know technology. Some people don't understand technology, but they can also find their own faith, for example, they believe in national policies.
A country's promotion of a policy must be determined after a detailed and thorough investigation. It must be determined after a high-level national invitation to many think tanks for research and discussion, and after many field project inspections. In many cases, the country ’s understanding is better than our own. Reliable and rigorous.
An industry that can be promoted at the national level, such as the blockchain, has raised the blockchain to the height of national development and innovation, which indicates that the country has conducted a full investigation of the industry and has recognized its future value. If our ordinary people do not understand technology or so many advanced terms, at this time, we only need to believe in the policies of the country and the power of the country.
There are a lot of friends who know about stock speculation through the news network, so I don't need to say more.
Some people believe in time and anti-fragility
In Taleb's "Anti-Vulnerability", he said, "A company that has been in existence for 100 years is likely to continue to exist for 100 years; all the difficulties and obstacles to the development of the company are reflected in time; the longer the company exists, It represents the more tenacious the vitality of this company. "
These words are the same when applied to the blockchain. Taking Bitcoin as an example, Bitcoin has existed for more than 10 years. Of course, more than 10 years is certainly a short time compared to the entire human history, but it is relatively In terms of history, it is no short history. We must know that the entire Internet has only really developed in recent decades.
In the past ten years, Bitcoin has gone through many difficulties. It has been banned by the United States government numerous times and declared dead numerous times. It also encountered many technical BUGs in the middle. At the time, it caused major panic. I have encountered situations such as forks and segregated witnesses that have caused great community discussions and divisions, and there have been countless price drops of more than 90% in the middle, but all these difficulties and dangers have not really defeated Bitcoin, and every time Bitcoin can Strong rebound, strong return, and more powerful.
According to anti-fragility, if a company has existed for 10 years, then it has a high probability that it will continue to exist for another 10 years. A project like Bitcoin that has been around for 10 years, of course, we have reason to believe that it will continue to exist.
Moreover, the first 10 years of Bitcoin are from scratch, the most critical 10 years from small to large. The difficulties encountered in this may be much more than the difficulties that will be encountered in the future. The current market value of Bitcoin, After the ecology and influence have become so large, we have reason to believe that it will continue to develop for at least 10 years, and it will grow stronger and stronger. These most primitive ideas are indeed the simplest belief of some people.
5. Some people believe in mathematics
Some people do not like concepts such as policies, anti-fragility, and the necessity of technological development, indicating that they do not understand. The only thing they believe in is mathematics. They believe that mathematics alone will not lie.
In fact, mathematics can also be found in the investment in the blockchain field. For example, the principle behind the investment method "fixed investment" is the harmonic mean in mathematics. The harmonic mean is the mathematical mean, geometric mean, etc. The lowest, applied to life, it can ensure that your investment long-term holding costs are as low as possible, which is why the fixed investment method can beat many other investment methods in the long run.
And from the historical statistics, not only the digital currency market, basically all investment markets are like this, they are both short and long. The longer the bear market, the lower the cost of our fixed investment. The mathematical nature of this fixed investment, combined with the statistics behind the fixed investment, constitutes the mathematical basis for investing in this industry.
Of course, there is also a premise for fixed investment. The premise is that your fixed investment is a long-term promising industry, and the fixed investment is a growth company. For example, when the fixed investment is mentioned in the stock market, it basically refers to the fixed investment of index funds, but not the fixed investment of stocks. This point also requires attention.
No matter how drastic the external environment is and how fiercely others question it, some people can always calm down and work steadily. The root cause lies in their faith.
Find a faith that truly belongs to you. This faith has gone through many thoughts and repeated arguments until it becomes the certainty in your life and the starting point of your entire thoughts and actions.
What's even more amazing is that when you have true faith, you will definitely ask yourself to act in accordance with this faith, rather than just stay at the level of ideas.
So dear friends, do you have faith? What is your faith?
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