With only 10 days left in 2019, what new variables will be in 2020?

Original: Five Fireball Leaders

As usual, in addition to making a summary of this year at the end of the year, we also have to make some forecasts for next year.

In the world of blockchain, 2020 is destined to be a very different year, because this is the first year of the second decade of the blockchain, and it is the first half year that most people in the circle experience It is the year when the two major star technologies "cross-chain" and "Filecoin" are officially launched. It is likely that the ETF will pass the year, and it may be the year when the national digital currency is born …

So, let ’s take a look at them one by one.

01 Market articles Halving, Bitcoin ETF

I. Halving

This is perhaps the first halving year that most of us have experienced. At present, the market consensus seems to be that halving will inevitably bring a bull market, mainly due to the following three reasons:

  1. Two halvings in history have brought about a bull market shortly after the halving.
  2. After halving, the miner's reward will also be halved, and there will be less selling pressure on the market. According to the supply and demand relationship, the supply will decrease, the demand will not change or even increase, and the currency price will rise naturally.
  3. If the price of the currency does not rise, many miners will make ends meet and choose to shut down. The computing power of the entire network will drop drastically, resulting in a decrease in network security. For Bitcoin, this is a disaster, a small probability event.

This sounds reasonable, but you can also look at it the other way round, saying that this halving will not bring a bull market at all , and you can also find sounding arguments:

  1. After the last two halvings, there was a bull market. Will there be a bull market after the next halving? This is not statistically valid because the sample is too small.
  2. The last two halvings were largely unknown, and this time almost everyone knew them. So even if the halving is good, it is already reflected in the currency price in advance because there are too many people who know it.
  3. In the past two halvings, compared with the circulation in the market, miner selling pressure is the main force of the seller. With 18 million currently mined, miner pressure is no longer relative to daily liquidity, so it may not make sense in terms of supply and demand.
  4. The most important point is the 28 rule of the investment field: If everyone knows that halving is a good thing, it will bring a bull market, then who will we "take over" after halving?

There is no investment market where everyone makes money. The new users in the short term are basically overrun in the 2017 wave of crazy cows.

So you see there is a very serious survivor bias. Because when things do n’t happen, it ’s true to say the opposite. And when the result is determined, there will always be some people demeanor, and some people will beat their faces, just like the habit.

Bitcoin ETF

The reason why bitcoin ETFs are so intriguing is simple: after the gold ETF went public in 2003, it has been advancing all the way and has been in a bull market for 10 years. As the "electronic gold" of the benchmark gold, it naturally wants to replicate this trend.

However, this has become the most "difficult" thing in the circle.

What many people don't know is that in 2013, an institution submitted an application for a Bitcoin ETF and was ruthlessly rejected. Starting in 2016, over the four years, various agencies have persistently submitted more than a dozen applications to the SEC in various ways, and the results have been rejected without exception.

Every time the Bitcoin ETF is approved, the market will be regarded as a small benefit, and now there is no wave. After all, "the wolf is here" is shouting too much, and everyone is numb.

Will 2020 be the year when the wolf really comes? No one knows, but at least there are more hopes than in the past few years. After all, in 2019, another "difficult child" Bakkt has been launched, and the first Blockstack in the circle to issue Tokens through SEC supervision has been launched in various countries. Compliance in investment, trading, taxation, etc. is also gradually deepening, and the adoption of Bitcoin ETFs should only happen sooner or later.

All I can say is that hope is next year.

02Technical articles DeFi, cross-chain, IPFS

I. DeFi

At present, many projects have begun to attract DeFi 's popularity . Among them, there are some well-known public chains. Even the public chain leader ETH has transformed from "World Computer" to "DeFi settlement layer". After all, in the current blockchain circle, DeFi is almost the only thing that can be profitable and doesn't look so "air".

Many people say that 2020 will be the year of DeFi, but in fact 2020 is more like the year of life and death of DeFi. What DeFi really needs to prove in 2020 is that it is not a "pseudo-direction" of the blockchain, because its predecessor DApp will not improve in 2019.

No one around you really uses DeFi, and the number one daily MakerDAO is only three or four hundred. Like DApps , DeFi's main users are mostly speculators.

What needs to be alert is that DeFi is essentially leveraging and creating subprime loans. Now DeFi is almost entirely based on Ether. If ETH drops to 90 dollars, nearly half of the MakerDAO CDP will be liquidated, and if 68 dollars, 90% of CDP will be liquidated. It can be said that this is the collapse price of DeFi. If it can't really serve the real economy, DeFi will still be a serious “bubble” area.

The most likely thing to see in 2020 is that with the improvement of cross-chain technology, BTC has gradually entered the world of DeFi, slowly replacing ETH as the largest collateral.

Cross-chain + IPFS

A sentence often said in the circle is: "Technology is always overvalued in the short term, but undervalued in the long term." This sentence is often used to guide and describe investment, let everyone hold it, long-term optimistic, but short-term Overrated, like the crazy bull market of 2017.

In fact, there is another word. The development speed of good technology is often overestimated in the short term. Cross-chain double-males (Cosmos and Polkadot) and IPFS are strictly speaking projects in 2017.

After more than two years, the Cosmos mainnet is finally online, but the most important IBC agreement has been dragging on and off. This year is no good. We can only count on 2020: Polkadot originally planned to go on the mainnet in the fourth quarter of this year. It has to be delayed until the first quarter of next year. The core cross-chain technology of relay chains and parachains is the same as Cosmos's IBC protocol, just one word: wait!

IPFS is also two years later, and finally launched a test network at the end of 2019 … As for ETH2.0, a conservative estimate is that the transition period of 3 to 5 years …

Then, these are the blockchain technologies that are really worth looking forward to. After two years of "uninteresting" competition between the consensus mechanism and TPS, think about one-click chaining, cross-chains formed by the isolation of various blockchain islands, and the new type of addressing and distributed storage brought by IPFS. Mechanism, this is the blockchain version of Web 3.0 we want.

In 2020, it should be the year when Web3.0 is on the rise.

03Environmental DCEP, Compliance

First, DCEP

According to media reports some time ago, DCEP plans to pilot a small-scale closed scene by the end of 2019, and may launch a large-scale promotion and pilot in Shenzhen next year . Replaced by the World of Warcraft that year, the internal beta is about to end, and the public beta is just around the corner. Will it be far from the date of full release?

Looking at it now, we see that DCEP is a high probability thing in 2020, and the impact of this matter is self-evident.

Compliance

If the blockchain is to be supervised, the most important part is the digital asset financial platform, the largest application at present.

It's good to have a “road to compliance” in 2020, and assets will be much safer.

——End——

"Disclaimer : This article is the author's independent opinion, does not represent the vernacular blockchain position, nor does it constitute any investment opinions or suggestions. The copyright of the article and the final interpretation right belong to the vernacular blockchain. A