Yesterday, someone sent me a Weibo private letter, asked me about the mining of the Bell chain, told him that his friend had been pulling him, he was very profitable, and his friend earned more than 100,000 last month and has been re-investing. I replied directly to him: the scam, your friend is pulling you to pick up, and your friend will eventually lose his blood.
Why is his friend always in a state of frenzy?
The most basic nature of mankind is the luck of those who participate in the P2p fund disk, the Punjab scam and all kinds of pyramid money, knowing that it is a scam, but they are not willing to believe that the last one is themselves. How can the unlucky one be himself?
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The facts are always cruel, and in the end will tell you that you are the fool before you know who is the last fool.
There is a concept of probability weight in the world. One of its core is: "The rich man's thinking is to abstract each specific choice into a probability. As long as there is an advantage in probability, if there is a chance of winning, it will always bet."
For example, they think that big cities have a higher probability of finding development opportunities than small cities, and they will move to big cities without considering a small loss at present; they will find opportunities to go to emerging industries when they judge the opportunities in emerging industries. Employment, and will not care about the loss of wages for a few hundred pieces per month; they judge that it is possible for a startup to get stocks and options, they will go to a startup to seek employment, and will not consider how this company can’t get on the market. They think that they need to learn a little more skills, and they may be useful in the future. They will not care about the current money and time. For those who have been betting like this, the chances of winning will be much greater.
To say that it is gambling, in fact, is not gambling in nature, because the probability of success is higher than that of gambling, because they have the right to probability, so instead of buying a very low probability fund and pyramid money like the poor thinkers.
In March 2016, Google’s artificial intelligence AlphaGo defeated the top human chess player Li Shishi in the Go game. At that time, some people analyzed that the reason why artificial intelligence machines can win is that there are many reasons: it is powerful in computing, it is extremely diligent, and it plays a lot of games with itself every day. But the most important point is that because it has mastered a probabilistic algorithm, that is, it calculates its own probability of winning in the current situation when it plays each move.
Artificial intelligence thinking
We humans are playing with artificial intelligence on the chess board. This victory and defeat has been fixed, and we can never defeat the machine.
If you learn its computing speed and storage capacity, human beings must not catch up with the machine, and humans must learn from artificial intelligence thinking.
What is the way of thinking about artificial intelligence?
Go under the machine, it calculates the probability of winning in the current situation every time the next hand. For it, each decision point is independent. This step has nothing to do with the previous chess. It starts from this step and calculates the probability of winning.
The machine never tangles, ignores the cost of sinking, never uses emotions, and does not have luck with the future. It just focuses on one thing: winning chess. It measures itself with only one criterion: probability.
To put it simply, the time, energy, and money that you spent on one thing in the past are all sunk, and should not affect your decision at this moment.
For example, if you buy a currency, after a period of time, it has been falling. Are you rushing to pay for the meat or continue to hold the rich?
According to empiricism, since I have held the currency for a while, the cost has already occurred, and then it will rebound. However, if it is handed over to artificial intelligence to make decisions, each decision point of artificial intelligence is independent and has nothing to do with the previous things. It will start from the moment and calculate the probability of winning, so artificial intelligence will definitely get up and leave, because my purpose is to get money. Since it is a spicy chicken coin, why should I always hold it?
Why are we so stupid? This is related to the operating mechanism of our brain, which is based on experience. The things that have been experienced in the past, as well as the remaining memories, have a great influence on our current judgment. On the bright side, this increases the speed of our decisions and reduces the burden on the brain.
For example, if we have ever suffered from the loss of a local person, we have formed an experience. Whenever we meet people from this place, we will avoid dealing with them as much as possible, and we should say bad things about them.
However, on the bad side, the way this brain works also makes us a slave to experience. We cannot objectively judge the current situation. We always let the past things kidnap ourselves.
The philosopher Schopenhauer said: "The obstacles that hinder people from discovering truth are not the illusory illusion of things, nor the defects of people's ability to reason, but the prejudice that people have accumulated before."
American novelist Mark Twain also said something similar. He said: "It is not ignorance that makes us in trouble, but the truth is not what we think."
What is even more terrifying is that human beings still have the ability to explain their own opinions based on false prejudice to be grandiose and self-rational.
All these stupid behaviors are because we continue the past and rationalize it.
But artificial intelligence won't. It uses probability to think about problems, cuts off past experiences, and makes decisions at every step independent. At this point, those powerful people, those who have rich thinking, are very similar to artificial intelligence.
If he doesn't love someone, he won't pay because he has already paid a lot for this person. He analyzes a currency. If he doesn't like its future, he will decisively sell it instead of saying: "Oh. I am still losing money. When I come back, I will sell it again."
First, science recognizes that it is ignorant, and does not say that the ancestors and prophets have told us all the truth. The pursuit of science is falsifiable, willing, and even pursuing being proved by others that "I am wrong."
Second, science seeks truth from facts. It only looks at logic and evidence, and does not care about the background and esteem of the proponents. You are the master, you are the Nobel Prize winner, you are always the same in the past, then what is wrong, it is wrong now.
Jobs has a famous saying: Stay hungry, Stay foolish. stay Hungry Stay Foolish.
Before every investment decision, you must tell yourself that this decision and each of the previous decisions are independent, and there is no direct relationship, that is, even if the last decision of the meter is wrong, you will not be affected by this. Once you judge the current situation based on the current situation, it is not determined by your position. After all, we always know that the position determines the head. If we are optimistic about a coin, we will be crazy and optimistic. If we don’t like a coin, we will sing crazy and then go all the way.
Investment is to compete with instinct. Our instinct is to enter the market when the bull market is in the market. When the bear market cuts off the meat, the anti-instinct is different. The bear market is opened, the bull market is leaving, and it will not be profitable immediately after the bull market. Under the premise of the trend, the short-term chasing and falling is a very stupid thing, and the more painful is the initial profit-taking, and seeing that all the way to the air can not help but the highest position, the last operation, Going into Baoshan and returning empty handed.