Against the halving market, 6500 at the end of this year is 3200 at the end of last year

Source: BlockVC

The core point:

  • The bottom of the policy is not the bottom of the market. Bitcoin has strong support at the 52-week moving average position, which has continuously strengthened the bottom. The "market bottom" space of the $ 6,500 front line has been proved.
  • Under the conditions of improving risk appetite and loose liquidity, we are optimistic about the halving market in the first two quarters of 2020. Mid-January 2020 will be the best time window for halving the market. It is expected that Bitcoin will rise to 13,000 in May 2020. The dollar was at a front high.

💲1 MILLION PER BTC BY 2020?

It is about to enter 2020. Next year is the time when John McAfee predicts that Bitcoin will rise to 1 million US dollars. Based on the current market price, Bitcoin will rise by at least 13,200% next year.

Now, no one will think that Bitcoin will rise to one million US dollars in the next year or even in its lifetime. Nor will anyone even think that the halving of the most critical bitcoin next year will generate a new round of market, affected by policy changes and speculation expectations. Decline, the market suffered the strongest cold wave in two years since 2018.

The traditional capital market has always said "the policy bottom is not the market bottom". The policy bottom is often very much ahead of the real bottom area. The market bottom is generally formed by the "policy bottom", "market bottom", and "fundamental bottom". This law still applies to the digital currency market, and the halving event will become the iconic "fundamental bottom."

At the end of October, BlockVC Strategy Research released a strategy weekly report, "Emergence of the" Mind of Mind ", and the" Market Bottom "in November is expected." It is believed that the market mentality is close to the bottom. According to market rules, Bitcoin will naturally find the bottom in November. At the bottom of the $ 6900-7000 line. However, due to the huge positive effects of national policies released at the end of October, the distribution structure of chips in the field was damaged due to uncontrollable external factors. The domestic market has almost all the funds stored in the market. Subsequent funds have been severely inadequate with the increase in volume, and there have been serious diversions of funds from projects such as domestic public chains, which will inevitably fall into a situation of killing more and setting a new low.

According to the BlockVC strategy study, after 2 months of decline adjustment, the minimum price deviates from MA200 by 45%, which is close to the historical limit of 60%. Bitcoin has retreated from a high point to 50%. Currently, it is $ 6300-6400. The bottom has been basically ascertained. However, since the previous period was mainly in the negative volume, the turnover was not sufficient, and it still needed shocks to build the bottom.

Bitcoin 6,500 USD at the end of 2019 is 3,200 USD at the end of 2018. Mid-January 2020 will be an important window of opportunity for the market to halve the market.

Review 2019

I knew this was like a dream

The past 2019 has inevitably become a roller coaster market again, condensing the three-year market price of the traditional capital market into one year, and completed the entire "quiet water flow-peak circuit transfer-chaos cloud crossing-infinite scenery- Out of the hustle and bustle-down the stairs-knowing not to stop . "

As of now, bitcoin ranks first among mainstream currencies with an annual rate of return of 88.63%. The annual rate of return of LTC is 33.3%, the annual rate of return of ETH is 14.6%, and the annual rate of return of BCH is about 0. From the perspective of the MVIS layered index, the large market value currency index has achieved a positive annual return of 45.19%, while the small and medium market value currencies have recorded negative returns of -21% and -34%, and the market differentiation is very obvious.

Data source: Coinmetrics

Data source: MVIS Index

Still water deep January to February 2019

Since December 15, 2018, when Bitcoin saw the last round of adjustments at the lowest point of 3,200 US dollars, the entire market has continued to moderately pull back, making two bottoms in about two and a half months. The market chips have basically changed hands, and most currencies have been in the same period. After completing the bottom, BNB and other exchange platform currencies benefited from the 1E0 bonus and started ahead of the market. This is an indifferent opening, but I didn't expect to kick off the crazy market in 2019 since then.

Peak return to February-April 2019

Since the beginning of February, Bitcoin has led the entire market to start the shocking consolidation of the bottom, and the volatility has continued to decline. Until April 2, Bitcoin broke out of the long-lost single-day close to 20% of the violent Changyang and completed the bull and bear The effective breakthrough of the dividing line MA200 confirmed the start of the mid-line trend market. Chaotic Clouds Fly Over April to May 2019

Although April to May is not the time when Bitcoin has the highest increase, it must be the two golden months with the strongest money-making effect in 2019. April is also the month when Grayscale Bitcoin Trust positions begin to become steep. Grayscale purchases more than 11,000 bitcoins in a single month, accounting for 21% of the entire month's supply. Grayscale Trust shares begin to have a premium of nearly 20% relative to Bitcoin positions. New funds were added for running, and FOMO's mood to raise funds began to ferment. Since the end of April, NYAG has announced that Bitfinex uses Tether funds to make up for the deficit, and rumors have spread that USDT does not have a sufficient fiat currency mortgage. Panic sentiment about the USDT storm has further led the price of Bitcoin to pass through the threshold. Coin exchanges such as Binance saw huge premiums.

Infinite Scenery June 2019

Bitcoin has been oscillating with US $ 8,100 as the hub from mid-May to mid-June. During this period, Facebook announced plans to issue Libra, which stimulated the market to choose to accelerate the summit. The mainstream currency followed the summit, and the market volatility increased sharply. Over the same period, the Fed ’s interest rate cut expectations are heating up, bitcoin and gold prices have formed a resonance rise, the daily trading volume of BitMEX has increased tenfold, the number of open positions has doubled, and speculative sentiment has been abnormal. However, since mid-May, a large number of small and medium-sized market value currencies have peaked and started to fall in advance. Bitcoin and other mainstream currencies released high levels at the end of June, and market liquidity began to dry up.

Out of the hustle and bustle June to September 2019

The end of June is the turning point of the full-year market in 2019. Since the end of June, speculative sentiment has begun to ebb. Exchange platform currencies have begun to decline. Algorand and other projects have performed poorly after the launch. Mainstream currencies have double-top declines. The loose recession in various countries has started, real interest rates have risen, the capital market represented by the collapse of WeWork valuations has experienced a shortage of liquidity, and the digital currency market has been affected by the contraction of liquidity.

Taking the next step September to October 2019

Since the end of June, bitcoin has experienced a rare high-declining triangle. After the volatility hit a new low in October 2018 (a monthly drop of 49%) and a large increase in March 2019 (a quarterly increase of 2.17 times), the market Then it broke down sharply, the volume of Bitcoin and mainstream currencies fell, and the cumulative quarterly callback of ETH and EOS exceeded 50%. The long-awaited Bakkt went online at the end of September and failed to reverse the downward trend. The market continued to shake downwards to find the bottom.

Knowing the best from October to December 2019

Since October, the market has apparently turned into a depression, and the contract positions of various derivatives exchanges have greatly reduced. Most long and fixed-investment investors have begun to shake. Forward contract premiums have turned into discounts. The sentiment index has dropped to freezing points. Investor mentality has begun to turn to despair.

On October 24th, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee conducted the eighteenth collective study on the current status and trends of the development of blockchain technology. The market interpreted this news as a heavy boost. Bitcoin has risen up to 35% for the second consecutive day, driving domestic public chains. The concept currency rose sharply. However, Bitcoin failed to break through MA120, followed by weak funds and tight market liquidity. The market once again fell into a multi-kill situation, continued to break new lows, and temporarily stabilized at the $ 6,500 front line.

Looking forward to 2020

Meet the halving market

Bitcoin sword points to $ 13,000 without suspense

At present, the market investor's mentality is generally sensitive to the decline, and has been numb to the rise. Bitcoin has completed the "mind of mentality" and has clearly walked out of the "policy bottom", "market bottom" and "fundamental bottom" deduction logic. BlockVC strategic research believes that the current bitcoin price of US $ 6,500 has formed a market pattern equivalent to bitcoin's US $ 3,200 at the end of 2018. The overall trend in 2020 is likely to be similar to that in 2019, but it continues to rise at the bottom.

Overall, Bitcoin is expected to be completely consolidated at the bottom of the box in mid-January and will begin to halve the market. It is generally on the rise from February to April and will challenge $ 13000-14000 before the halving event in May. Due to the sadness of the previous high of 20,000 US dollars, there was not much room for increase before the halving. After the halving, it is expected to fluctuate for 5-6 months and continue to open new rising prices. The core points of judgment are as follows:

Successive bearish hits the bottom, the "market bottom" space has been proven

The bottom of the policy is not the bottom of the market, and the bottom hit by the bearish is the bottom.

Since the country's release of the favorable multi-kill market, bitcoin prices have continuously bottomed out. During the bottom-out period, exchanges have closed, rectified, shut down, or Plustoken shipments have negatively hit the market. On November 22 and On December 19, two consecutive large-scale sales fell to the US $ 6500 front-line, and the negatively-smashed transaction volume gradually decreased, and the kinetic energy of the selloff was obviously depleted; and the US $ 7,100 front-line was the 52-week weekly moving average of Bitcoin, and the support strength was very considerable. Data source: Bloomberg

Judging from the sentiment index of the BlockVC strategy study, the market has been hovering at the bottom of the freezing point for nearly two months since the sudden outburst of sentiment on October 24, and reached a new low around December 17, the current market sentiment is sensitive to decline The rising numbness is already a typical bottom mentality, but the short-term rebound has been too fast and too high recently, and the sentiment has rebounded strongly. It is expected that there will still be a shock and a downward trend in the short term.

Data source: BlockVC strategy research

Spring will remain restless, global risk appetite picks up

The turn of the first quarter to the second quarter of 2020 is expected to be the month with the best performance of all types of assets in the world and the most comfortable month for investors.

Since the central banks of major countries in the world restarted their easing expansion one after another in the third quarter of 2019, the economies of various countries will start to recover slowly in 2020, and risk appetite will begin to pick up. Moderate macro environment, abundant liquidity, and admission for the new fiscal year Funds will drive the rise of various types of assets, so the spring turmoil in the first and second quarters will be the most secure and comfortable season. Bitcoin will benefit from Risk-On's sentiment, and risk appetite will drive the price of Bitcoin up.

From the perspective of Bitcoin's volatility structure, the long-term and short-term volatility of Bitcoin is close to the bottom at the same time, and the structure is quite similar to the beginning of 2019, so it is expected that the trend structure will also be similar.

Data source: Bitpremier

The biggest event in 2020, only 140 days away from halving

Since the big bear market in 2018, all digital currency investors have paid close attention to the big event than the halving event that Bitcoin will take place in mid-May 2020. Although the halving event has doubts about the true impact of the Bitcoin price, it is undoubtedly a huge positive signal to stimulate the hype, and after Bitcoin halved, the demand and supply relationship is indeed true when the demand is unchanged or even rising It needs to be rebalanced by rising prices. From historical data, the price of Bitcoin did indeed increase very significantly before the halving time, and after a period of volatile adjustment, the price of Bitcoin will continue to reach a new high. According to historical experience, this market is expected to continue By mid-October 2021.

Data source: TradingView BlockVC strategy research

Clarify digital gold positioning, stored value role attracts new funds

In addition to the shocking impact of the birth of Libra in 2019, Fed Chairman Powell stated in the U.S. Senate testimony that "Bitcoin has increasingly replaced gold as a means of value storage in the global economy." Consensus products such as digital gold, which can be used for value storage, can be recorded in history.

As monetary easing and the potential recovery of the economy may lead to rising inflation, concerns about growing government debt will prompt smart investors to constantly seek viable tools of value storage. Under the influence of macro factors, the linkage between Bitcoin and gold will continue to be maintained.

Data source: Bloomberg

At the same time, benefiting from the wider application of Libra and other stablecoins, the completeness of encrypted financial infrastructure such as DeFi, the channels of compliant exchanges such as Bakkt, and the development and application of digital currencies by central banks in various countries, the penetration rate of Bitcoin will continue Upgrade, attract more off-site funds.

Data source: Bitcoin Visuals

However, with the entry of the central bank and regulators, market compliance and improvement of investment channels, small and medium-sized market value currencies that lack investment themes will be further suppressed. It is expected that BTC Dominance will continue to rise to a level close to 70%. BlockVC strategy research suggests that investors should mainly hold bitcoin, reduce transaction frequency, and avoid short-term transactions as much as possible. January 2020 will be the best time window for halving the market.

There is still about 140 days before the halving today. This is the time it will take for Bitcoin to increase from $ 3,200 to $ 13,000 in 2019, and it will also be another time to hit $ 13,000 from $ 7,000. The current $ 6,500 is 2019. At $ 3,200, investors who have shorted Bitcoin at $ 3,100 will step into the same river twice?