Every four years, the block reward that Bitcoin miners can receive is reduced by half, which is the "half event". The last halving occurred in July 2016, and the next halving is expected to occur in May 2020. According to calculations by Bitcoinblockhalf.com, there is currently 141 days before the next halving. Although the price of bitcoin has been fluctuating horizontally without any major ups and downs recently, some people in the community believe that the halving may make its price soar, but some people also think that the result of this halving may be "unexpected". Now that the date of halving is getting closer and closer, the community is hotly talking about this topic again.
Image source: bitcoinblockhalf.com
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Opinion 1: Halving will bring more infrastructure and more purchases
Speaking of expectations of halving, Spencer Bogart, general partner of Blockchain Capital, revealed in a recent interview that he was at a loss as to what he said: "In the truest sense, the industry has no risk-free returns." In this sense, he is 100% determined to be priced in (the market reflects the corresponding price after digesting the information). Many are convinced that the price of Bitcoin will skyrocket after halving. According to Bogart, this is a very subtle idea. He said that there are two main factors that should be taken into account,
"One of them is that halving represents some kind of deflation, right? The natural point of integration of capital is on the sidelines, and you are interested in distributing bitcoin. So you know, a lot of money is in this situation today."
Bogart revealed that they conduct a survey every 18 months and found that 27% of respondents (33% of those aged 18 to 34) stated that they are likely to buy Bitcoin within the next five years. He pointed out that people are considering buying bystander capital for Bitcoin. He added,
"But all of a sudden, when people start talking about halving new circulation, this will drive more purchases and a virtuous circle, and really drive the bitcoin market. Prices will drive more infrastructure, higher computing power and Cybersecurity, better liquidity, all of which will lead to price increases. "
Opinion 2: Halving is not directly related to price increases
On December 23, the crypto media LongHash issued a post " How Bitcoin halving leads to mining disasters ", saying that due to the general expectation that Bitcoin halving will promote price increases, many people have joined the mining industry and purchased mining equipment to mine, This has caused Bitcoin's hashrate to continue to grow. But according to historical records, there is no direct clear correlation between Bitcoin price and halving. The continued increase in computing power has increased the mining costs of miners. There is no reason to believe that increased mining costs will push up prices. The price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand. If the demand is low, the price may fall regardless of the cost of mining. Computing power continues to rise, miner rewards will be halved again, and miners are under pressure. At the same time, this pressure will also put pressure on miner manufacturers. In view of the current difficulties faced by the top miners, Bitmain and Jianan Yunzhi, if the market does not appear as scheduled, I am afraid that there will be huge pressure on the entire bitcoin mining industry, and there may even be an unprecedented "mine disaster" .
Opinion 3: I don't believe that a super mining disaster will happen, every halving of the market is worth looking forward to
On December 23, Jia Nan Blockchain CEO Shao Jianliang stated in a program that he did not believe in the occurrence of the super mining disaster. He believed that this must be a game between some smart miners and some miners without the strength. The process repeats itself, with similar rotations each time. But every time something unexpected happens. It is worth looking forward to every halving of the market . At the same time, Shao Jianliang also mentioned that bitcoin mining is actually the process of buying bitcoin at a cost price. Non-compliance is a staged product and does not mean forever.
Opinion 4: BTC prices may not rise after halving, there is no directionality before halving
Cointems Chief Technology Officer Meltem Demirors recently tweeted several times that after halving, BTC prices are likely not to rise. For the first time, Bitcoin has seen a strong derivative (futures, options) market. Most companies that want to speculate on Bitcoin trade a derivative, not Bitcoin itself. One theme of other commodity market research is how to price. Bitcoin can be said to be a digital commodity. Usually, the producer determines the price of the commodity. When derivatives take off, producers lose their pricing power. Taking the changes in the oil market over the past 20 years as an example, derivatives have dominated the transaction. Most companies speculate on oil prices by trading paper contracts, and the market is driven by speculation. The more Bitcoin becomes an investable asset, the more the price is decoupled from its value and supply and demand. Bitcoin has become another stagnant pool of speculative games around the world. It became "financialized" and became related to the macro market. Today, the Bitcoin derivatives market is still small, but the market will grow rapidly. People are always talking about whether Bitcoin has been priced. (May 2020) The difference between Bitcoin halving is that before the halving, the crypto market has no direction.
She further explained that in the past people could only be “fundamentally” long bitcoin, but now derivatives markets including CME and Bakkt are performing strongly. Therefore, it gives traders more options for derivatives trading. Demirors also emphasized that although the price response may be different this time, one basic factor will remain the same, which is the decrease in Bitcoin production. She even pointed out that considering the trading activities of Square's Cash App, Grayscale's products, etc., the demand for cryptocurrencies is growing.
Opinion 5: Bitcoin halving market is not expected to be optimistic, miners need to be prepared for risks
On November 21, Yuchi CMO Qing Qing said in an interview that two months ago, he would be looking forward to it, but now the currency price has been in a downward trend. In the first half of the future, the currency price will not be optimistic. If Bitcoin is halved, for investors, they need to strengthen their risk awareness and be prepared for the winter. Bitcoin halved, mining revenue will also be halved, Antminer S9 and Avalon A8 will shut down, and some miners may be out .
Opinion 6: Halving does not immediately benefit Bitcoin
Cryptocurrency analyst and trading legend Peter Brandt believes that the halving of Bitcoin will not immediately benefit Bitcoin. He believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach $ 5,500 in July 2020. This price will mark the bottom of the long-term downtrend.
Opinion 7: 56% of respondents believe that halving Bitcoin will not affect prices
Morgan Creek co-founder Jason A. Williams recently tweeted that Grayscale released the results of the Bitcoin halving survey. 56% believe that the upcoming reduction in mining rewards will not be reflected in the price; 27% are sure that the market has factored the event into factors that affect prices; 17% are not sure. However, Pomp, another Morgan Creek founder, previously stated that the halving of Bitcoin in May 2020 will not have any impact on the price. This will be an irrelevant matter.
Opinion 8: Halving will be the catalyst for the next Bitcoin bull market
Charles Hwang, a managing member of Hedge Fund Lightning Capital and a part-time lecturer at Baruch College, stated that by 2021, demand for Bitcoin will stabilize at 633,000 BTC, while mining returns will fall from the current 657,000 BTC per year. 328.5 thousand BTC per year. This sudden shift in the supply curve is likely to be the catalyst for the next bitcoin bull market.
Opinion 9: Bitcoin price is expected to reach $ 100,000 after halving
Crypto Einstein, a cryptocurrency enthusiast, recently tweeted a chart showing how the price of Bitcoin has risen after each halving. In the chart, Crypto Einstein confirms the time when the Bitcoin price rose sharply in December 2017, allegedly related to the halving that occurred in the previous year. According to its published chart, after halving next year, the price is expected to eventually reach $ 100,000, which will be the highest price level to date.
Opinion 10: Bitcoin price could fall to $ 4,500 before halving in May next year
Cryptocurrency analyst Tone Vays said the price of Bitcoin could drop to $ 4,500 before halving in May next year. He then added, "I can foresee that if the price of Bitcoin falls from $ 8,000 to $ 5,000, it may even reach $ 4,500, but it will return to $ 9,000 or more than $ 10,000 within a few weeks."
Opinion 11 : Bitcoin may currently be running at the end of the big C or B wave
Some analysts believe that Bitcoin is currently in or will be in the midst of a big C wave. An analysis by Tradingview analyst imkeshav shows that the total market value of digital currencies is currently in the midst of a large C wave, and the lowest point may fall below the 2018 low (Similarly, Bitcoin will also fall below the 2018 low) . However, some analysts believe that the big B wave rebound trend this year is not complete. Weibo user "Old Chihuahua" believes that there is still room above the big B wave rebound (may match the halving market in 2020 ), and the B wave rebound is over That is, running the big C wave trend.