2020 forecast (overseas version): USDT will become third in market capitalization, Ray Dalio announces holding BTC …

Compilation: Orange Book

Source: token daily

Editor's note: This article has been deleted without changing the original intention of the author.

At the end of each year, token daily invites KOLs from foreign crypto circles to make predictions for the new year. Basically, the people who are invited are good, and the quality of the answers is also very high. The Orange Book translated this prediction, which is regarded as a reference for foreign communities.

Pick some more bright predictions:

1. 2018 is a stablecoin, 2019 is DeFi, and 2020 is a "crypto bank" that combines the two to make a product.

2. At least one DAO will be taken over by malicious collusion voters with a profit of more than one million dollars.

3. The platform currency of the exchange will continue to be the most attractive investment target.

4. NFT (non-homogeneous tokens) usher in a big explosion.

5. Due to mounting political tensions, Ray Dalio announced that he holds BTC.

6, USDT will become the third place in the total market capitalization.

7. Options trading volume increased by 10 to 100 times.

The following is the text:

Tyler & Cameron Winklevoss, Winklevoss Capital

Bitcoin's halving should be reflected in the price, but it has not yet appeared (in fact, it has never appeared earlier), so it will bring a large-scale bull market (always). NFT's non-homogeneous tokens will become one of the most exciting fields in the crypto space, driving mainstream users to embrace cryptocurrencies. Without a licensed exchange, development opportunities will gradually shrink globally, and for licensed operators, the opportunities will become more. China will launch its own stablecoin, which will greatly benefit the entire crypto industry and bitcoin.

Sunayna Tuteja, TD Ameritrade

There will be a new change in startups and developers, from the development of "technology-based products" to "user experience-based products." Because more attention is paid to user needs, simple and smooth user experience and solutions will make great progress.

Balaji Srinivasan, investor

After ten years of dust settled, it is clear that Bitcoin is the best investment product since 2010. Not technology companies like Uber, Airbnb or Snapchat. In retrospect, the theme of the past ten years has been infrastructure construction. This is true of mining, exchanges, digital currencies, and communities. Not just from 0 to 1, but from $ 0 to $ 100B. The next decade will be a decade of decentralization. All the technologies being built in the industry-from zero-knowledge proofs, DeFi to new consensus algorithms and capacity expansion solutions, these technologies will be used to decentralize existing large services. Finance, IM tools and social media are the earliest representatives. Due to the relatively low bandwidth of Twitter and Craigslist, they may be the first targets of this decentralized movement.

Linda Xie, Scalar Capital

I think we will continue to see the expansion of Decentralized Finance (DeFi), mainly stablecoins and borrowing. Other financial products (such as insurance, mutual credit, options, and bonds) will have more builds and uses. It essentially recreates the basic components of a traditional financial system in a more open and composable way.

Mohamed Fouda, Token Daily Capital

The third halving dynamic of Bitcoin will be significantly different from the previous two halvings. The Lightning Network will continue to grow and we will see many UX improvements / abstractions. Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 will be completed in Q1 and Q2, but phase 2 will not happen in 2020. Many newly launched smart contract platforms (public chains) will struggle to capture any potential energy, either shrinking or transforming.

Yele Bademosi, Binance Labs

In 2020, a very powerful new narrative will be launched around African cryptocurrency use cases. Many projects will focus on the African region, and a number of products will complete the PMF (product market fit). Price prediction is difficult, but I can expect the lowest price for BTC in 2020 to be higher than the annual low in 2019 (~ $ 3,300).

Meltem Demirors, CoinShares

1. Bitcoin continues to dominate.

2. Bitcoin halving looks different from the previous two. Will get weird. Last time we halved, we didn't have directionality (which means that short selling is not easy, most people basically go long).

3. Bitcoin is more and more like banks and traditional finance. Expect more cash-settled derivatives. Expect more middlemen. For example, deposit Bitcoin into a custodian, and then they will give you a depositary receipt, which you can use for all transactions on the platform. The custodian will use the currency to borrow money.

4. The theme for 2020 is transaction fees. If the Internet is just "monetizing" eyeballs and traffic, then crypto networks are monetizing blockchain activities by charging transaction fees. This situation will become more apparent by 2020. We will see exchanges and companies with liquidity continue to earn 90% of the industry's revenue. More companies will switch to this business model. As spreads become smaller and smaller, it becomes more and more difficult for traders and investors to make money.

5. Companies that cater to "institutional investors" will need to find new buyers. Many companies will transform into "digital asset" services. However, "digital assets" are still largely limited to "liquidity", it is not as simple as listing assets, but about price discovery, tradability, exchangeability, and other more relevant to drive desire Esoteric factors (prestige, exclusivity, etc.).

6. Governments will continue to strengthen the concept of "CBD" (digital currency issued by the central bank), but we will not see any real information except for a large number of press releases, a large number of summits, roundtable discussions and private meetings. deploy. Can someone please figure out if Petro really exists?

Alexander Leishman, River Financial

I think 2020 will be the year when most Silicon Valley venture capital firms realize that their understanding of "Web 3.0" is incorrect. Some of the much-hyped blockchain projects will be launched, but far from their initial promises. Popular narrative themes will continue to gather around Bitcoin, and people will realize that decentralized protocols like Lightning Network and Discreet Log Contracts are more promising, but also more difficult to invest directly.

Colleen Sullivan, CMT Digital

The Silvergate Switching Network (SEN) introduced by Silvergate bank enables customers to send USD 24/7/365, which actually provides the function of instant clearing for USD. Before the launch of SEN, trading companies could only complete U.S. dollar transfers every 5 days within the bank's working days, which obviously had problems with the cryptocurrency market that traded on 24/7/365. Of course, ironically, we still don't have Bitcoin's instant settlement function.

Regardless of on-chain activities, exchanges, or OTC platforms, there is a need to confirm the settlement of Bitcoin transactions, but Bitcoin settlement still takes an hour to complete. From a transaction perspective, this efficiency is very low. I believe that by 2020, we will see the use of the Lightning Network for trading purposes, especially exchanges and OTC platforms, where they can establish private channels with each other for transactions in order to complete the settlement of Bitcoin transactions immediately.

Although the main use cases for Lightning Network will eventually be small transactions, business transactions, and payments between machines, I think it will take some time to achieve it. In the United States, there is some friction in our tax system. In order to collect taxes, we treat bitcoin as a kind of "property". When consumers use Satoshi to buy a cup of coffee and expect a cash-like transaction to generate business tax, this method is not The best option, trading friction does not really exist. And because proprietary trading companies do not manage third-party capital, they are more receptive to the risks of using emerging technologies such as Lightning Network, especially when there are tangible benefits and benefits.

I also want to see more emergence of derivatives targeting cryptocurrencies, such as derivatives on mining difficulty, derivatives on transaction costs, and derivatives on staking.

Hasu, Deribit

We will learn more about the security models of Bitcoin and other unlicensed blockchains. More and more people are realizing that these systems need sufficient block rewards to survive. As a result, high transaction costs are increasingly seen as an important indicator of network security, somewhat similar to "heartbeat."

Nic Carter, Castle Island Ventures

Fiat-backed stablecoins face strict regulatory scrutiny as regulators realize that issuers are performing minimal monitoring of the network. Binance will be forced to leave Malta in search of a new base again. The SEC's victory in the lawsuit against Kik set a regulatory precedent and resulted in the immediate dissolution of dozens of similar token projects. A major exchange in the United States will launch a user-oriented reserve certification agreement.

Jill Carlson, Slow Ventures

The theme of 2020 will continue to be developers, developers, or developers. We will see more and better developer tools, protocols, and platforms being built, but there is still a big question: Who are we building for?

Charlie Noyes, Paradigm

At least one DAO will be taken over by malicious collusion voters for more than a million dollars in profits.

Steve McKeon, Collaborative Fund

Ethereum will continue to be the main unlicensed smart contract platform, but Tezos will grab some market share, especially through STO. The increase in DAO activities will drive research and development of proxy voting solutions. With more cases, we will also make regulation clearer in 2020.

Johnny Dilley, Mempool Partners

Everyone forgot to halve. When we halve, fomo will join.

Dani Grant, USV

1. Bitcoin will continue to lead.

2. Some people will develop and release breakthrough crypto consumer products. I predict that the first such application will be very interesting, social and gamified, and then DeFi and other more serious applications.

3. Many new chains will be launched at the end of 2019 and will be launched in 2020 (Polkadot, Algorand, Dfinity, Flow, etc.). These new chains will attract talents in the current Ethereum development community and stimulate developers' tools and applications. The new ecology challenges Ethereum's leading position as an application platform.

James Prestwich, Summa

My prediction for 2020 is very simple:

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Cryptocurrencies will continue to inject a lot of money and time into the Rust ecosystem.

Jinglan Wang, Plasma Group

2019 is the year of research. 2020 is the year of delivery. By 2020, we will see more promising testnet releases than the sum of the past three years, and integration between existing projects will increase.

Joey Krug, Pantera Capital

By the end of 2020, we will see more than $ 2 million in bets per week on Augur.

Avichal Garg, Electric Capital

2020 is the first year that cryptocurrency projects have shown PMF-entrepreneurs and VCs outside the circle are starting to notice this area. However, because too many people are bearish in the short term, few people will notice that some applications have real product market fit and that institutional capital is finally here.

Katherine Wu, Notation Capital

1. Design! Although it has been said for a long time, I really think that 2020 will be the year when better, people-oriented designs emerge. Many complex and difficult-to-use product experiences will be abandoned, resulting in more intuitive product designs. One way is to make more and more useful tools available, so that designers outside the circle can easily design decentralized products.

2. Regarding regulatory tensions: Many predictions from the SEC / IRS / CFTC are enough to dampen the enthusiasm of American entrepreneurs / investors. I think that by 2020, we will see many companies / projects avoid users / customers in the US when they go online.

Ari Nazir, Neural Capital

1. The exchange's platform currency will continue to be the most attractive investment target.

2. Broker service companies will become the default way for traders to interact with cryptocurrencies. The remaining OTC platforms will be merged into several players, and the smaller OTC platforms will be transformed into companies that support transactions.

Val Wallace, Square Crypto

More games integrated with the Lightning Network appear, the rise of AMP, consolidation of the Schnorr / taproot proposal, and steps to streamline the core review process.

Jeremy Welch, Casa

In 2020, the best developers will ignore price fluctuations and continue building. Like 2019 and every year before.

Matt Lucas, Collaborative Fund

The most significant event related to cryptocurrencies in 2020 is not the changes in our small industry (existing digital assets and the infrastructure that has sprung up to support them), but the impact of cryptocurrencies on other economic systems. Expect to see major technology and financial companies launch major initiatives in open source development, open API access, and "protocolization" (yes, even some blockchains), as they try to adapt to and seize the rapidly changing landscape.

Su Zhu, Three Arrows Capital

Bitcoin broke an all-time high at some point during the year. As BTC is added to DeFi and average transaction costs increase, BTC transactions on sidechains (such as Ethereum, Liquid, etc.) will become more attractive. Options trading volume has increased by 10 to 100 times, as CME and Bakkt's option products have brought considerable institutional benefits and liquidity.

Matt Corallo, Square Crypto

Increasing regulatory conflict-does not necessarily mean that things will pass.

Casey Caruso, Bessemer Venture Partners

1. The enthusiasm for Web 3.0 will continue to diminish, because people realize that if this huge cultural change takes place, it will take at least years or even decades.

2.The community will realize that DeFi is a wrong term because most "decentralized finance" projects are actually centralized.

3. Consolidation of financial products (derivatives, loans, etc.). Many independent projects will be merged into subsidiary functions of large companies.

4. Because the value is not enough to convert the POC into an annual contract, it will be difficult for the enterprise blockchain to obtain considerable income

5. BTC will continue to maintain the position of top cryptocurrency.

Jacob Horne, Coinbase

1.If 2018 is the year of stablecoin and 2019 is the year of DeFi, then 2020 will be the year when "crypto banks" combine the two to make products. Agency develops products.

2. We will see that mainstream DeFi teams have successfully decentralized their protocols, removing the team from the role of manager.

3. There will be a DAO managing more than $ 10 million in funds. There will be more than 10,000 DAOs.

4. The total market value of personal tokens will exceed $ 10 million.

5. USDC's outstanding supply will exceed $ 1 billion.

Imran Khan, Token Daily Capital

1. Most institutions have allocated a small number of positions for Bitcoin. After halving, we will see that these institutions' positions double.

2. Facebook's Libra will receive limited approval from US regulators, but will not affect the entire crypto market in the short term.

3.Games will be one of the successful use cases and will spawn a new smart contract platform to compete with Ethereum.

Anthony Lusardi, Advisor

The next wave of Bitcoin adoption will come from U.S. small businesses and countries excluded by U.S. banks. Ethereum 2.0 will fall behind in the market, because wrong decisions are made between sharding and smaller states, PoS staking and keeping PoW, and it will be under pressure from large exchanges participating in staking.

Ash Egan, Accomplice

DeFi will continue to soar, with the total value of locks increasing five-fold to $ 3 billion. In DeFi, the Automated Market Maker (AMM) will emit light and heat, and is better than Phase 0 of eth2 in locking Eth. In parallel with the development of the Ethereum ecosystem, 2020 is the year that layer1 is launched-the winners will be those who create new sandboxes and experiences for users, and other players will die. I expect that increasing political tensions will trigger Ray Dalio's announcement that he holds BTC.

Bram Cohen, Chia

My prediction for the 2020 price is: USDT will become the third place in the total market capitalization.