Author: Yanyao Ping
Source: Shallot Blockchain
On December 25th, at the "Constructing Unbounded Trust-Digital Token Summit Forum and SLA Year-end Ceremony", Zhu Youping, a blockchain economist and deputy director of the China Economic Network Management Center of the National Information Center, discussed "the future direction of the blockchain" Gave a keynote speech.
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The blockchain thinker, known as the "first person in the chain reform" industry, has long worked in the frontline of the national science and technology and economic research sector, and has unique insights into the development situation and prospects of the Chinese economy. The development of the blockchain and the digital economy has produced many forward-looking views. Last month, Zhu Youping's article in the China Banking and Insurance News, "All financial companies in the future will be blockchain companies," even triggered a shock in the financial circle.
In this speech, Zhu Youping highlighted the tremendous energy of the blockchain “all industries are available and accessible by all people”, elaborated the basic logic behind the reason why the blockchain can transform the world, and demonstrated the blockchain from multiple perspectives. The blockchain and digital economy are the new directions for global wealth in the future, and it is pointed out that the development of blockchain technology in 2019 is the right time.
Xiao Onte organized Zhu Youping's speech so that readers can quickly understand his interpretation and prediction of the future development trend of the blockchain.
Blockchain energy far exceeds 5G
Zhu Youping believes that the speech made by the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee on October 24 this year has two main highlights.
- First of all, until now, there are still many misunderstandings about the blockchain in the society, and the blockchain itself has a lot of negative energy, but why such a blockchain will rise to the national strategy at once is worth thinking about.
- Secondly, reviewing the topics learned by the General Secretary in the Politburo over the years, 2016 was "Cyber Security", 2017 was "Big Data", 2018 was "Artificial Intelligence", and 2019 should be "5G" according to industry speculation, because 5G Technology is very, very heavy throughout 2019, but in the end it is the "blockchain".
Therefore, Zhu Youping believes that at least two conclusions can be drawn from it.
The first conclusion is that the energy of blockchain and its effect on society are beyond 5G. Even though some blockchain investors have been a little messy in the past, the amount of economic development and wealth creation involved has greatly exceeded other technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence, and 5G, so they can only get the highest leadership of the central government. Favor.
The second conclusion is that the logic of "blockchain empowering the real economy" is correct. Under the guidance of the general secretary's speech, the provincial party committee secretaries, state-owned enterprise leaders, and the general public are interpreting and understanding the spirit of his speech, and have begun to promote the landing of the blockchain industry and promote its various applications in various industries. It can be seen that the future blockchain will greatly empower the real economy.
"The spring of this industry is coming. The industry has grown slowly in the beginning, but now it has reached an era of very rapid growth," said Zhu Youping.
Digital currency still has at least 100 times value added space
Blockchain development logic needs to add new content
Zhu Youping pointed out that after 11 years of development, the blockchain industry has accumulated some technologies and foundations. By 2019, although there are still many problems, it can basically go to large-scale commercial use, and it has basically formed a blockchain. Business ecology, this ecology has laid a very good foundation for the further development of the blockchain.
However, he believes that there is still a problem in the blockchain industry. In the past, the logic did not form a complete closed loop. In the past, the logic was mostly to issue a coin, and let the leek in the back pay the leek in front.
"By 2019, the development logic of the blockchain should be supplemented with new connotations, and this logic must be combined with physical applications," said Zhu Youping.
Blockchain is a new direction for future global wealth
Zhu Youping compared the value of global wealth with the value of digital currency, and pointed out that the value-added space of blockchain and digital currency is huge, and it is a new economic growth point in the digital age.
At present, the global derivatives market is worth US $ 532 trillion, the global debt market is approximately US $ 247 trillion, and global securities (stocks) have accumulated approximately US $ 77.7 trillion (China's US $ 8 trillion and Hong Kong's US $ 3 trillion). USD 217 trillion, and the global currency (M2) has accumulated USD 95.7 trillion.
At present, the value of digital currency is about 200 billion U.S. dollars (more than 50% is bitcoin). The fire of stars can ignite the original, and the digital currency market will grow. There may be many multiples in the future. Zhu Youping believes that there is "at least 100 times more space" , And this is so promising for two reasons.
One is the huge prospect of the blockchain digital economy explosion.
Second, because of the various problems of traditional businesses, growth momentum has reached the ceiling.
For example, oil, as China ’s fuel vehicles are fully transformed into electric vehicles, the demand for oil will drop sharply, and there will be little room for value addition; real estate has reached a development bottleneck period; the debt market, due to the global economic downturn, many banks have negative interest rates.
What is the logic behind the blockchain transformation world? Why is the blockchain "available to all industries and accessible to all"?
According to Zhu Youping, the reason why the blockchain can transform the world is because it has huge energy, which is embodied in four value support points. This is exactly the "four beams" in the concept of "four beams and eight pillars" of the blockchain proposed by Zhu Youping. : One is technological innovation, the other is financial reform, the third is digital transformation, and the fourth is community sharing.
Technical innovation: "The greatest ability of the blockchain is to be able to build a secure and trusted platform"
"Technological innovation is mainly reflected in the fact that the blockchain has anti-counterfeiting and tamper-resistant functions. The biggest ability of the blockchain is to build a secure and reliable platform that is reliable enough to transfer money on the blockchain," said Zhu Youping.
In the Internet era, money cannot be transferred directly through the network. Because it is easy to be tampered with and attacked by others, some people call the blockchain the "second generation" of the Internet, also known as the "upgraded version". The Internet solves the effect of information transmission, and the blockchain solves the effect of value transmission. Information transmission is important, but value transmission is more important, because everyone gets up early and is greedy for the sake of earning more income. Blockchain helps us to improve efficiency in this area. This is where its value is significant.
"Future blockchain will be combined with quantum computing, 5G, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies to build an infrastructure of wealth in a" digital society / digital era ", Zhu Youping emphasized, because blockchain is The "strong" item is not good enough in efficiency. It needs to be complemented by technologies such as quantum computing and 5G.
Financial change: "People's finance and self-finance will have better development"
"In financial reforms, the greatest ability of blockchain is 'code credit'," Zhu Youping said.
The current financial system is authoritative institution credit. Banks / securities are backed by national credit and authoritative credit. However, investigating through the code credit (or objective credit) of the blockchain will produce stronger progress for the current financial system. .
"The formation of 'dual credit' can not only improve the credit of the existing financial system, but also increase the speed of the existing financial system and reduce the cost of the existing financial system."
The simplest example is that the introduction of blockchain and digital currency can solve the problems of long time, high fees and complicated processes in cross-border remittances. He asserted that in the future, all financial companies will be blockchain companies. In the future, they will do banking on the blockchain. Now these beautiful bank buildings and complex business environments will be saved, and costs will be greatly reduced.
The second major impact of the blockchain on the financial sector is that the banking institutions can build the best risk control mechanism for the financial system of the bank through the platform built by the blockchain. With the immutable data on the blockchain, it is possible to effectively avoid some human risks in the process of putting money into the real economy and improve risk prevention.
In addition, Zhu Youping believes that the prospect of blockchain in the financial field is more worth looking forward to, and that private finance and self-finance will have better development. He explained that three years ago, the Central State Council announced 28 articles to support the development of the private economy, one of which is to support the private sector to run finance. In the future, we can also run banks ourselves, and we may also run digital exchanges. In the case of control, maybe you can also send some digital currency yourself, these are all worth looking forward to.
Digital transformation: "Blockchain can effectively solve the problem of 'overcapacity' in the late industrialization period"
"Blockchain will catalyze digital transformation and effectively solve the problem of 'overcapacity'."
Zhu Youping pointed out that at present we have reached the late stage of industrialization. One of the biggest problems in the late stage of industrialization is "overcapacity", because the standard of personal demand is higher and more and more inclined to personalization. The products produced in the industrial era are In the case of unified and batch production, "unified production" meets "personalized demand", and there will be "excess".
He believes that blockchain can help solve this problem, mainly in two aspects.
- First, through anti-counterfeiting and tamper-resistant data, the blockchain can accurately convey consumer information to producers, so that producers can effectively supply according to consumer needs, and solve the masses without sacrificing industrial production batch efficiency. Personalized needs.
- Second, through the role of the blockchain credit platform, excess money in the financial system can be effectively diverted to platforms that support the real economy. A blockchain credit platform is needed to help achieve this goal. This is called digital transformation. Digital transformation is an effective way to transfer the wealth growth model of the structural industry era to the new model of wealth growth in the digital era.
Social sharing: Blockchain is the newcomer of the "community model"
It is worth mentioning that Zhu Youping also pointed out that the blockchain has brought about changes in the social organization model. In the past, most of the organization of wealth was based on enterprises, according to the boss-employee system, and in the blockchain era, it was based on the community. The model is organized and appealed.
He believes that this "community sharing" organization and operation mode is similar to the previous "community system" and is a shared, win-win, and shared model.
Under this model, it is possible to realize that consumers are investors. This was not possible before. In the Internet era, it can only be rebated through discounts. In the blockchain era, not only can it be rebated, but it can also enjoy project value-added through tokens. Gains.
At the same time, the "community sharing" model brought by the blockchain will move towards a different ending than the commune model.
Although the commune model of "Big Pot Rice" has proven to be invalid in the past, Zhu Youping believed that "that was because there was no blockchain and no token at that time", and it was impossible to accurately record individual contributions and effectively inspire everyone.
"In the new community sharing model, individuals work for themselves and become the masters of the projects themselves. Together with the accurate records and effective incentives of the blockchain, it is a perfect combination that can well overcome the drawbacks of the original" big pot rice ". "It can also overcome the" labor and capital opposition "in the early period of capitalism," Zhu Youping said.
2019 blockchain is right at the time
Because the blockchain has value support in technological innovation, financial transformation, digital transformation, social sharing, etc., the feasibility and logic of the blockchain to transform the world are very solid and stand the test. Blockchain is a This kind of infrastructure is "available by all industries and accessible by all people." Almost all businesses can be upgraded with blockchain.
Because of this, Zhu Youping proposed the "chain reform" as early as 2018, calling on all sectors of society to actively use blockchain technology.
He believes that the blockchain represents the digital age, and the digital age is the foundation of a century of wealth. Therefore, the blockchain has a long period of prosperity, "maybe more than 50 years", and now it has just gone through 11 years. All belong to the "first mover".
In addition, he proposed that according to the development law of the Gartner curve, 2019 is the best time window for entering the blockchain and deploying the blockchain. "The development law of the new technology reflected by the Gartner curve has been verified by the logic of the Internet, and it will be proved again by the logic of the blockchain. There is nothing new in the sun, and it will be this law."
After a new thing is born, it will go through a bubble period. Bitcoin was at the apex of the bubble when it was $ 20,000 (about December 17, 2017). In 2018, it started to wash the bubble. Zhu Youping believes that the current development of the blockchain is equivalent to the era of the Internet around 2000. "At present, it is the best time window to enter the blockchain."
In the end, Zhu Youping also shared the "concept" deviations that the general public showed in the face of the tide of the digital age, that is, "don't know, don't believe, don't know, don't dare to do it and don't rush."
1) Don't know: The vast majority of people in the world "do not know" what a blockchain is. There are 7 billion people in the world, including 3.9 billion people on the Internet, and less than 100 million people on the blockchain.
2) Do not believe: Many people do not believe that the blockchain can show so much potential. Few people recognize that the blockchain is a machine for creating wealth and is the direction of the future world. Even if the center speaks for the blockchain, most of them People's thinking can not keep up, not only need to learn, but also need to change cognition.
3) I do n’t know: There is a certain threshold for the technology behind the blockchain. Many people do n’t understand the logic of the blockchain, and they do n’t understand why the blockchain is a thing that the public can use to start businesses.
4) Don't dare to use it: Because you are afraid of taking risks, you dare not use the blockchain easily. But in fact there are risks in putting money in banks, 10% inflation, negative interest rates and so on.
5) Do not rush: "Do not rush" was proposed by Ma Yun, but Zhu Youping pointed out that Ma Yun has done no business with e-commerce, and now it is obviously "don't rush" to operate under the Internet thinking, but in Under the blockchain thinking, it is "just right" .