On December 27th, the world's first blockchain year-end speech "Ling Listening 2020" was held in Hangzhou Canal Culture and Art Center. In a 3-hour uninterrupted immersive speech, Tang Xialing, vice president / editor of Babbitt, and the founder of Lingting Blockchain, focused on “the sense of certainty—finding the fulcrum in chaos ” with 100 pages of PPT, summarizing 2019, and looking forward 2020. Look at the trend from the cycle, look for the right mindset in chaos, and find a way to the future.
Meng Yan , the Deputy Dean of the Digital Asset Research Institute and the founder of the Token Thinking Lab, Tao Rongqi , the founder of X-Order and a partner of NGC Ventures, and Lu Yifan , the general manager of the blockchain business of Ping An Finance The same speech also gathered 378 super listeners from 44 physical industries around the world. Most of them were core management of the enterprise. They stood out from more than 1,000 registered guests. At the junction of the old and new years, they thought deeply and listened together.
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Data + events, a panoramic scan of the blockchain industry in 2019
• The current market value of bitcoin reaches $ 130.4 billion, and if it is an analog company, bitcoin can enter the global top 100.
• The cumulative total of 10 years of global blockchain investment is roughly equivalent to the investment volume of the Chinese Internet market in a quarter.
• The industry is small, but the prospect is great; there are few investment targets, and there is a lot of room for growth; all parts of the world are being deployed, and listed companies have begun to appear.
• Review of the top ten news events of 2019 :
1) Admission to traditional financial institutions such as JP Morgan Chase and Fidelity
2) The rise of DeFi
3) Libra releases white paper
4) The central bank's digital currency DC / EP is ready
5) The CPC Central Committee issued an important speech on blockchain
6) Jia Nan Yunzhi goes public
7) The rise of privacy technology
8) Alliance chain welcomes spring
9) The rise of industrial blockchain
10) Regulators from many places have spoken: Take the right path of the blockchain and stay away from virtual currency speculation
Big factory layout, how does blockchain change life?
• The layout of the large factory has three characteristics:
1) Three steps in the layout of the big factory: do the underlying protocol, do BaaS, and do the application;
2) Technical service + cloud service, 2-3 teams explore together;
3) Starting from the stock capacity, the application of landing is different.
• Weizhong Bank: Open source is like a streak. It opens the technical threshold, and even the psychological threshold.
• Ant Financial: Blockchain is the most ideal technical solution to "solve trust issues."
• In the technological innovation of blockchain, the big factory is now more like a flexible fat man.
Census: Blockchain Stock Talent and Wealth View
• Small and medium-sized enterprises are the main force for recruiting blockchain posts; the talent gap is large and the compound talents are scarce.
• The majority of highly educated mature professionals. The technology category is the main one, and the sales category has not yet been measured.
• Early-stage companies plus mature talents test the wisdom of management.
• Blockchain wealth concept has nothing to do with wealth, but the value standard of everyone's heart.
• Wealth in the form of money is just a digital return of all your efforts and efforts. Money earned by luck will be lost by strength.
• Our society is moving from the era of super organizations to the era of super individuals.
Trend judgment, what do you need to pay attention to in 2020?
• What is the position to monitor? Don't send email at the post office
• What is the position to embrace regulation? Dodging? Kneeling? Stand up!
• There are three trends to watch in 2020: data, regulatory sandboxes, and licenses.
• Engineering realization capability will become a key competitiveness.
• Industry is more important than blockchain.
Imagine the future, how can we grasp the times of the times?
• Those who are interested in the blockchain are the value chassis of the blockchain.
• Bring your curiosity and courage to go for a small chance with high probability.
• γ201, which determines the true value of emerging technologies. Are you γ201 today?
The following is the full text of Ling's 2020 New Year's speech:
Complex world, simple Ling listen. Hello, this is Tang Xia Ling. Welcome to Ling Ting.
Every friend at the scene, thank you for coming.
In the current season, making a New Year's speech requires great wisdom and courage. Because it is not wise to give any definition and conclusion to an early new thing.
But because of the early days, because of chaos, and because of uncertainty, mutual discussions and exchanges became precious.
Socrates said that an unexamined life is not worth living. Looking at the past year, what have been forgotten and what should be remembered? At the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, on the last weekend of 2019, we got together, summing up, looking back, for a better start.
Correct positioning makes effort meaningful. I position myself as an expressor, expressing what I have seen, heard, and thought of in the past year. Tonight, there is no project PR, no deliberate marketing, no technical terminology, no selling anxiety, no pushing people to extremes, and no easy value. Everyone got together, telling stories, cases, and data rationally, sincerely, and peacefully. Pay tribute to the past and paint the imagination of the future.
Today's theme is sense of certainty . Many times, a large part of anxiety comes from uncertainty. For example: I'm not sure if my boss agrees, I'm not sure if this business can be negotiated, if this idea can be verified by the market, can I ? Impossible, can't it? Seems to be OK. Each one's certainty and uncertainty constitute our specific and trivial life every day.
Following my inner feelings, I found some basis.
I consulted the editor-in-chief of the largest psychological self-media in the country, and he told me that there is a professional term in the psychological field: fuzzy situation :
This concept was proposed by American psychologist Frenkel brunswik:
Vague situations refer to our inconsistent, complex, and unfamiliar situational clues. We become anxious when individuals face fuzzy situations but lack fuzzy tolerance.
The pace of the times is getting faster and faster, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for us to predict tomorrow's life. Today, in this three hours, I hope that through our expression, we can let everyone find certain feelings and find the value anchor of everyone's heart in an era of uncertainty.
I. Cycles and Macroeconomics
2019 is a year of ups and downs. In the third quarter, China ’s GDP growth rate fell to 6%. The general sentiment in the market is that the entrepreneurial environment is tight, the business environment is difficult, investors are not easy to sell, and there are not many good new projects on the market. Come. The overall feeling is: baby is so hard. (It doesn't matter, they seem to be these words every year.)
In the international environment, Sino-US friction has also affected the steady and rapid progress of the economy to a certain extent. The world and China are facing unprecedented changes in a century.
But on the other side, our consumer market is booming. Young friends are still discussing entrepreneurship and talking about dreams in cafes. China is still the second largest economy in the world. This is the real world in which we live. Hardship and hope coexist, and determination and uncertainty make up our most real life.
If you want to use color to express, what color is your 2019?
I think it is red, enthusiastic and unrestrained, excited and curious, and may go to work every day; it may also be gray, the truth and scam are intertwined, making money and losing money, love and not love, meeting and leaving; also It might be blue. Blue represents business and reason, right. Most of my life is filled with work. Every day is time management, progress follow-up, and effect feedback.
I think my color for 2019 is avocado green, everything is full of hope, and I am curious about everything that is coming.
What color is your 2019? Just give yourself an answer. do not tell me. Tell someone you love.
Cycle, we often talk about the economic cycle.
The economic cycle was originally a very common and proven phenomenon of economic activity, with four distinct stages of prosperity, recession, depression and recovery. However, such an economic cycle has been completely broken in the past two or three decades. The turning point of the cycle is actually becoming less clear.
Why was it disrupted? First, technological progress has become the most important force in breaking the economic cycle. On the other hand, the entire human internal system is undergoing profound changes, and major changes are taking place in government and markets, individuals and organizations.
If the Renaissance era from the 13th to 16th centuries was the era in which humanities and arts led the natural sciences, the leaders of those eras were bankers and entrepreneurs who dominated the development of the industrial revolution. In the 20th century, it was science and technology. Leading the era of the humanistic spirit, this is the era of mathematicians, physicists, biologists, and computer scientists.
We are at the meeting point of these two eras.
In such an era of great change, great ideas, great companies and great people will be born. So, what role will blockchain play in the middle? There are also countless people who have over-defined the blockchain. I won't go into details here, but give a brief overview.
1.Blockchain is a distributed ledger
2.Blockchain is a trusted machine
3.Blockchain is the Internet of Value
4.Blockchain is the infrastructure of the next-generation information Internet Human beings are entering a new era in an irreversible way. Blockchain provides a possibility for us to enter this world. What is the status of the blockchain in the big cycle? Let's look at this picture. The famous Gatner curve, also known as the technology maturity curve, Gatner is a world-renowned IT consulting company.
Let's see what stage the blockchain is in:
So, how big is the commercial value of blockchain? This picture of Gartner can give you some reference. The value of the blockchain business shows a typical double-peak growth model of emerging technologies.
Data + events, 2019 panoramic scan of blockchain
The above is about the future in ten years. Let's see what happened in the past 10 years. Let's take a look at the 10-year bitcoin market. Before 2016, nobody was unknown, and after 2016, it began to enter the public eye. There are three key points. Let's first perceive it: $ 19,500 in December 2017, $ 3,209 on December 15, 2018, and $ 12,700 on June 27, 2019. These three key points are buried in everyone's mind first, and the market trend largely determines the flow of talents and funds .
OK, look at the numbers below. Forgive me, the next step is to enter a long list of numbers:
Market Cap: $ 195.88 billion
Bitcoin market cap: $ 130.4 billionProportion: 66.6%
As of today
Alibaba's market value: $ 537.752 billion
IBM market cap: $ 123.54 billion
China Merchants Bank market value: 129.26 billion US dollars
If it's an analog company, Bitcoin can also enter the global top 100 (about 64-bit).
2.1 Blockchain Stock Talent
This year, it seems that many big factories have entered the bureau. How many people in big factories are doing blockchain? The following picture was asked by the human flesh of the company one by one. This is the number of employees in the blockchain department of relatively well-known large companies that are now open. Here are the full-time employees of the core blockchain department, excluding some who do the blockchain application layer in the business department of large companies. And the people needed by the temporary project team:
We often complain that we cannot recruit people. Lack of talent is not a case. As of June this year, there were 3328 blockchain-related job vacancies in the United States, and this number was 1775 in August 2018. That is to say, the US blockchain employment in the past year The number of job requirements has doubled.
In fact, it doesn't matter, not only you can't recruit people, even big factories like Ant Financial can't recruit excellent talents. Jiang Guofei told me in the interview that he used to bring a 150-person Ph.D. team in the United States, and he could n’t recruit people when he started business after returning home and abroad. So every time someone asked him to go out for a lecture, he would see who to listen to first. Then, each lecture brought several talents back, and these people have now basically become the core backbone of the Ant blockchain.
The picture below may help you understand why it is so difficult to find someone. The blockchain is not really new. Its underlying layer is the fusion of many technologies. Blockchain is a cross-disciplinary product. It involves a wide variety of disciplines, including mathematics, computer science, cryptography, economics, and law, and may also involve politics, philosophy, and even religion. Thank you to Babbitt Technology, who provided this picture.
Next we look at the stock of talent.
Small and medium-sized enterprises are the main force in recruiting blockchain posts
Among the companies participating in the recruitment of blockchain positions in 2018, 40.1% of the companies were less than 100 people, and the largest number were less than 499 people, accounting for 72% .
· There are many senior professionals in the workplace, and those with more than 5 years of work experience are the backbone.
Among the blockchain talents, 31.77% have 5-10 years of work experience, 23.89% have more than 10 years work experience, followed by 26.15% with 3-5 years work experience, 16.79% from 1-3 years, 1 The proportion below the year is 1.40%. It can be seen that the stock market talents are relatively experienced, and their corresponding job selection should be more precise and prudent.
Blockchain inventory of talents is generally high
The majority of the existing talents have a bachelor's degree, accounting for 56.18%, and a master's degree or above accounting for 18.57%. Bachelor degree or above accounted for 74.75% . Blockchain practitioners are a very creative group. From the perspective of professional development, he has been a very senior professional for 5 years. Understand the rules of the workplace, have certain professional requirements, have certain professional capabilities. I have strong growth and want to do my best. It's relatively rational, and it doesn't have a strong impression of solidification. It will not have the same high training and education costs as the newcomer who has just started, and the emotional, personality and professional abilities are relatively stable. This is a very lively group.
But such a group of outstanding people brought together a great challenge to the company's management. Because the more excellent people, the less you need to control. If the company's growth and development speed cannot match the needs of this group of people, it will cause team instability. But most blockchain companies are early stage companies. There will be great challenges here, which will test the wisdom of the bosses.
2.2 Blockchain Industrial Park
Let's look at the national blockchain industrial park:
As of the first half of 2019, the blockchain industry parks that have been established or under construction nationwide have covered Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Guangzhou, Qingdao, Chongqing, Wuhan, Changsha, Nanchang, Haikou, Ganzhou, Loudi, Liaoning, Nanning, Tangshan There are more than 20 blockchain industrial parks in China, Xinjiang, and other five major regions. Among them, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Pearl River Delta are relatively dense.
Globally, according to the incomplete statistics of the report of the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology, as of September 2019, there have been 154 blockchain projects promoted by governments around the world , involving financial, government archives, digital asset management and other field.
2.3 Blockchain investment and financing
Look at the size of the money again:
2017-2018 is the most active period for investment and financing of the blockchain industry. Capital fever is declining in 2019, not just the blockchain, but overall investment is tightening.
Two data are found, which is very interesting. From 2009 to 2019, the cumulative investment and financing capital of the global blockchain industry was 10.369 billion US dollars. However, the amount of China's Internet investment and financing in Q2 2019 was US $ 8.13 billion. In other words , the cumulative total investment of the blockchain over the past 10 years is roughly equivalent to the investment amount of the Chinese Internet market in a quarter.
There is a second data: in the first 8 months of 2019, there were 273 seed rounds, angel rounds, and round A investment transactions for blockchain companies, with a total of 673 million US dollars, all lower than the 374 and 969 million US dollars in the same period last year. And in the past year, only 200-300 early stage companies have received financing.
Look at the comparison of Chinese and foreign investment institutions. The following is a list of the top ten blockchain funds made by machine learning by think tank partner X-Order in this multi-year speech:
From 2017 to 2019, there are only three Chinese funds in the top ten funds, namely HashKey, distributed capital and NGC, and the rest are international large funds such as IDG and Digital Currency Group. Moreover, among Chinese funds, the leading investment scores are relatively low, indicating that they still follow the state when investing in large projects.
2.4 The first block chain was born
With the development of innovation and entrepreneurship, we are also very glad to see the first listed company in the blockchain field.
There is a sentence in the mine circle called: Brothers drink mine tyrant wine, whether he has a bear market or not. You see, it's all this wild style. On the evening of November 21, Canaan Technology Nasdaq rang the bell, and the first block chain was born. Data returned by Nasdaq showed that this was the ringing ceremony with the largest number of people watching live broadcast worldwide. I think, if it is a general company listing, let alone the US listing, it is estimated that the moon listing has not attracted so much attention.
Why did it attract so much attention?
Two weeks before the listing, I had an exclusive interview with Jia Nan Yunzhi co-CEO CEO Kong Jianping, and I asked him 26 questions in one breath. Maybe he's never been asked so thoroughly. This is the hardest interview ever.
"This is a link between traditional capital markets and new industries, and it will lead to more chemical reactions."
The listing of Jianan Yunzhi opened the door to the world's top capital markets for the blockchain. This is an important milestone. This industrial dividend not only belongs to Jia Nan Yunzhi, but also to more people. Now, Bitmain and Ebang International are following this path.
Thirteen days before our New Year's speech, on December 14, Ping An One Account was also listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Artificial intelligence, blockchain and big data are the three core technologies of Financial One Account.
The Nasdaq listing is not a starting point, the capital game has entered a new stage, and the competition for land grabbing in the rough period will soon enter the stage of standardized management, system construction, and efficiency. When a new industry began to appear as a listed company, the standardized development path had already begun.
In summary, everyone should have a basic perception of what the blockchain industry looks like. Let's see what are the characteristics:
1. The industry is small, but the prospects are great
2. Few investment targets, large growth space
3, is being deployed around the world
4. Listed companies begin to appear This should be all the characteristics of the early stages of the industry. The blockchain is very small, so small that he may only be a wave in the history; but the blockchain is also very large, and it has attracted many people's curiosity. Because of this curiosity, we have come here from all over the world today Listen to me. He entrusted and carried our curiosity and dreams, as well as a possibility to change the future. He was running at full speed like a spirited teenager.
2.5 Top 10 News of 2019
After speaking the whole picture of the industry, let's take a look at what happened in the blockchain industry in 2019. Life is not how many days you live, but how many days you remember. Let's look at the days in 2019 that can be remembered and recorded in history.
According to the timeline, the first half was calm and the second half was very lively.
1. In March, traditional financial institutions entered
JPMorgan Chase issued stablecoin jpcoin, Wal-Mart, Fidelity, etc., and one after another, the traditional financial industry has developed a strong interest in the blockchain market.
Zhan Rongrong, editor-in-chief of blockchain in the vernacular, believes that the biggest benefit brought by JP Morgan's issuance of coins and the admission of large institutions to the blockchain is the brand effect. Only by promoting awareness through active science popularization can we not be a bystander of technological development.
2. The rise of DeFi in April
Liu Feng, the editor-in-chief of Lianwen, believes that a large number of DeFi (decentralized financial) protocols and applications appearing on Ethereum are the most dazzling phenomenal products in 2019. However, DeFi also faces the problem of insufficient real users. The rise of the one-stop DeFi platform in the future may change this situation.
3. In May, the rise of privacy technology
Because data becomes an important means of production, privacy technology is particularly important.
4. June 18, Libra releases white paper
Its mission is to build a simple, borderless currency and a financial infrastructure that serves billions of people. Zuckerberg is bringing Facebook's 2.7 billion users.
The founder of Mars Finance and Consensus Labs, Wang Feng, believes that, whether or not it is ultimately successful, Facebook's launch of Libra demonstrates the high interest of the tech giants in the crypto world. Libra is a creative solution to the global inequality of financial resources . Once launched, it is expected to push billions of people around the world directly to the door of the crypto world. However, the introduction of a digital currency with the characteristics of a super-sovereign country currency by a commercial technology company is still too invasive as a new species and the potential systemic risk is too great.
5. In August, the central bank's digital currency DC / EP came out
After 5 years of research, the central bank's digital currency can be said to be ready. The design concept and technical architecture of the central bank's digital currency; a two-tier operating system is adopted, with the central bank as the upper layer and the commercial bank as the second layer.
6. In September, the alliance chain ushered in the spring
Yan Li, the founder of the computing power think tank, believes that after this year, the alliance chain will form a clearer paradigm. While enjoying the policy bonus, it will also attract the attention of the capital market. Blockchain equity investment will be concentrated on this track. Capital intervention will promote the influx of more talents and the emergence of more innovations, promote the blockchain to empower the real economy, and support the banner of industrial blockchain.
7. On October 24, the CPC Central Committee issued an important speech on blockchain
We must regard blockchain as an important breakthrough in independent innovation of core technologies, clarify the main attack direction, increase investment, focus on overcoming a number of key core technologies, and accelerate the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation.
Babbitt CEO Wang Lei believes that the speech of the Central Committee represents the beginning of a big era. When the big age begins, it is normal for everyone to have excitement, confusion and anxiety. When starting, the steps can be messy, but there must be no direction in mind. I think the only way is to let the blockchain technology find more business scenarios. This is also the original intention of our Lingling 2020 New Year's speech.
8. In November, Jianan Yunzhi went public
9. In November, the rise of industrial blockchain
Xu Siyan, a senior researcher at Tencent Research Institute and editor-in-chief of the "2019 Tencent Blockchain White Paper" believes that the rise of the blockchain industry is similar to this year's popular "Industrial Internet". The focus is not on the technology itself, but on the application combined with traditional industries. Scenes. Blockchain technology can solve the problem of trust in the upgrade process of the physical and financial industries, help the assets to determine rights, and realize the mapping and circulation of assets on the off-chain chain, and promote the upgrade of the information Internet to the value Internet.
10. In December, regulators from many places have voiced: Take the right path of blockchain and stay away from virtual currency speculation
In the second half of this year, various regulatory agencies carried out centralized rectification, and struck hard against illegal activities such as hype, fraud and illegal fundraising under the banner of "blockchain".
This is the great era and history of our lives. Everyone is among them, a witness, and a builder. Everyone can think back to the moment when these historical events happened, what were you doing and what were you thinking? How did you relate to these major events, and what inspiration did you learn from them?
Third, the supervision boots have not landed
To a certain extent, the wind of regulation is what controls our efforts.
3.1 Uncle Police found Babbitt one day
Let me share with you a story I experienced first.
On July 10, our editor received a WeChat request to add friends and started a conversation like this:
In the face of the police uncle, our classmates panicked. Anxiously came to the office to find me, what to do, editor, uncle police came to us.
I took my colleague's mobile phone and my thinking as an investigative journalist started. It looks like Uncle Police thought we were an exchange.
Then I quickly sent a message to the editor: "Hello, we are a media platform for news reporting. We do not do exchanges; you can provide us with the address, and we contact the security company Help you track the address. "
I then contacted security company Paidun for help. But suddenly I thought, there are so many scammers these days. Is this person a policeman? If the police are fake, then don't we become thugs? Then, our attacking editor started to act: verify the identity of the police.
First, I searched the whole network for some information and found no breakthrough. A colleague suddenly said, hit 110. Oh, here, our editor realized that by calling 110, the identity of the police officer's uncle could be verified.
Then our Xiaobian classmates hit the first 110 in life. The first to connect is the Hangzhou Public Security Bureau-and then transfer all the way, Henan Province 110-Luohe City 110-Zhaoling Branch-finally located at the police station where sir is located. I hope that we can help a lot.
You see, life tips: The best way to verify the identity of the police is to hit 110.
After confirming my identity, I sent a shield to the security company and Police Officer Yu to pull a WeChat group and began to assist in handling the case. Finally, through the tracking of the data on the chain, a part of the information was verified. Currently, part of the investigation has been completed in this case.
Below I want to use a picture to show the full picture of this case:
This is a typical telecommunications scam case: a couple in their 40s, 300,000 are going to buy a house for their son. One day, a scam gang posing as a police officer called the couple, and after a magic operation, the money was transferred Go to a "secure account" (liar account). Then the money was transferred many times, poured, washed back and forth, and finally entered the digital currency trading market. With some on-chain transaction addresses, there is still a large part of which cannot be found.
At present, some people have been reselling, making phone calls, and being responsible for money laundering. But the last big boss hasn't been caught yet. Today, we are also very honored to have this news party: Police Officer Yu has invited us to the scene of the event. Come and ask Police Officer to say hello to everyone. I propose to the police officer with warm applause.
Police officer Yu told me: In recent years, there have been more and more cases of telecommunications fraud. Previously, one card was transferred to another card, or the money was taken from an ATM. But now taking advantage of the anonymity of digital currency transactions, criminals have begun reselling many times, converting money into stable currency, then converting into other digital currencies, and finally returning back to fiat currency, which greatly increases the difficulty of solving the case.
Police officer Yu told me that they had never been exposed to cases related to digital currencies before, and that various new terms in the blockchain field were new to him. He completed this case for 2 months, and more than one month was used to learn new things. For the first time, he knew the new terms USDT and on-chain addresses. I also found Babbitt in the process of checking the information online. I did not expect that we helped contact the security company in the future and provided a lot of help.
He also searched a lot of subjects online and contacted them one by one to verify which transfer addresses. Some responded, and most ignored him at all, and some didn't know what to say even though they were connected. With our help, he finally found organizations and people who understand the blockchain.
3.2 Suspected road incidents and supervision
In fact, this is one of many cases in the past year. There are even more serious routines of MLM coins and model coins.
At the beginning of June this year, the wealth management wallet TokenStore was suspected to be on the run, involving billions of yuan in costs, covering Shanghai, Foshan, Nanning, Shenzhen, Hunan and other places.
On June 29th, the "token fund of the currency circle"-Plustoken wallet has been unable to withdraw cash and is suspected of crashing. It swept through nearly 170 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Russia, and Myanmar, involving 3 million people, and the amount involved may reach 20 billion yuan.
Babbitt first reported the TokenStore runaway incident and launched the "Suspected Runaway Fund Guardianship Plan", which received registrations from 18 partners within a day: there are law firms, wallets, security companies, etc. We also held a seminar to discuss how to prevent road accidents. At the seminar, the security company sent a shield to show us the flow of funds.
After in-depth discussions, we found that the following realistic situations exist for suspected running funds:
1.I don't know whether to file a case
At present, China strictly prohibits the trading and speculation of digital currencies. Whether buying, selling, and trading digital currencies is protected by law is a matter for discussion. In case practice, some grass-roots police stations reported that they could not find a basis for filing a case.
2. The second is the characterization and pricing of the subject:
Is Bitcoin a virtual commodity or a virtual currency? The price fluctuates greatly, how to price him is a problem.
3.I don't know what evidence can be trusted
A large number of user information is stored in the exchange, but the exchange is very helpless. They do not know which evidence is useful, which evidence can be adopted by the judicial authority, and in what form it is provided to the relevant parties. Without a letter from the police, the exchange should not provide customer information.
4. Cross-chain is difficult to track, anonymous coins cannot be monitored
Technically speaking, if BTC only transfers to each other in the BTC network, it is actually traceable, but if BTC cross-chains to other networks, it will be difficult to continue. In addition, some are anonymous coins that have anti-censorship characteristics.
5. Another point is that what I want to expand on is that the defined crimes are relatively vague.
Based on previous cases, the current handling of digital asset security incidents in China has the following charges:
2. Crime of illegal business
3． Fundraising fraud
4． Crime of organizing and leading MLM activities
5. Crime of undermining computer information system According to the current legal provisions, it is impossible to determine whether the above four cases have been met.
The first 4 cases are all very serious cases, but some specific cases cannot meet the filing standards of these cases. The last crime of undermining computer information systems is often unknown. Due to the problems mentioned above, many cases have not been resolved and no cases have been filed. When I was preparing for this New Year's Eve speech, we again contacted the person who complained to us when the TokenStore case occurred. Some places in Shenzhen and Beijing have already filed cases, but no obvious progress has been seen. There are still many places where the amount involved is relatively small and nothing will be left.
However, according to the latest data provided by Paidun: As of December 08, most of the BTC assets in the PlusToken Run event flowed to the exchange, and the rest were basically obfuscated by the obfuscation tool. In wallet address. All assets in the TokenStore run event have been transferred, and most of them have flowed to the exchange.
The case we have come up with is to show you in detail the initial state of the blockchain industry and to clarify the current situation in order to better find a solution . By the second half of this year, regulatory agencies from various places have taken steps to carry out centralized rectification. We are glad to find that the pace of compliance will become more and more firm, the voice of bad will be less and less, and the force of positive will be more and more powerful.
3.3 Status of upstream and downstream supervision of the blockchain
From the perspective of the industry, I would like to quote some research results of Deng Jianpeng of the Central University of Finance and Economics:
Professor Deng has traveled to Tokyo, Singapore, California, USA, and Seoul, South Korea to conduct research. I synthesized his research results and made the following picture:
Let's take it one by one:
For wallets : There are no norms for wallets yet. But the wallet is a place for user entry and value carrying. The importance of directly contacting the user with the terminal can be compared with the bank's ATM machine or WeChat wallet account and Alipay wallet account.
For exchanges : China strictly prohibits digital currency trading and hype, and other international regulations around the world have also introduced exchange supervision rules, because extreme events such as insider trading, market manipulation, and cyber fraud can all happen here.
For the mining machine : Currently, it can match the product quality method . If you consider the mining machine as an ordinary commodity, is the computing power you promote consistent with the actual situation?
For mining pools : There are several different models in the market: one model is personal investment to buy a mining machine, some are directly invested in the mine, and some are responsible for hosting the mining machine or renting computing power. At present, these have not been seen There is a lot of research that can be clear and standardized here. How to clarify the mutual rights, responsibilities and responsibilities of the custodian, the lessor and the investor is also an issue to be resolved. Some legal issues related to private financing may also be involved.
For the public chain : This involves two stages. Before the public chain leaves the project party, the responsible subject can be found, but if the public chain leaves the founding team and enters the community autonomy stage, it is actually difficult to find the responsible subject; it is like no one is now Saying we are going to regulate the Bitcoin network.
Tax related : how to pay the relevant income in the form of digital currency? How to solve the legal and tax issues, do I need to pay taxes on token wages paid to employees? These are unresolved issues. If a company is to take a formal listing route, financial and tax regulations will be particularly important. In an interview with Jia Nan Yun Zhi, the co-chairman of Jian Nan Yun Zhi, Mr. Kong Jianping, told me proudly that all the mining machine income of Jia Nan Yun Zhi was legal currency income. For legal compliance, they would rather abandon this part of the market for digital currency buying miners. This helped a lot on the road to listing.
Blockchain commercial application specifications : At present, blockchain smart contracts have been applied to various aspects, such as property rights registration, copyright, copyright and other on-chain, asset on-chain and so on. Can smart contracts be used as a type of contract and also protected by law? Is it necessary to add some content to the contract law?
3.4 Status of Global Blockchain Regulation
Judging from the recent trend, China's regulatory attitude towards blockchain is very clear, that is, resolutely cracking down on speculation in currency speculation and actively guiding blockchain technology and applications. We look at the world, how are countries around the world exploring the compliance boundaries of the blockchain? We have compiled the practices of several countries:
Singapore has the most positive mentality , attracting blockchain institutions from all over the world to settle in Singapore, and has issued corresponding regulations.
Japanese legislation came first . In 2017, Japan implemented the Payment Services Act, officially recognizing Bitcoin as a legal payment method, and setting clear regulatory requirements for digital asset exchanges.
U.S. regulation is the strictest . Operating a virtual currency business in the United States requires compliance with state and federal legislation. In July this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first token offering project.
Switzerland is the friendliest . The Canton of Zug, Switzerland is known as the "Crypto Valley" and is the global center for encryption technology development. The Libra Association is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.
3.5 What position to monitor? In what position does it embrace supervision?
After reading the above, two questions remain. What posture should be used for supervision, and what posture should be used to embrace supervision?
What position to monitor? Don't send email at the post office
Throughout the history and economic fields, many innovations, many of them started from the gray area. There is always a game between the innovator and the original system. The original system, framework and evaluation indicators may no longer adapt to the development of new things. It is not possible to look at the development of new things with the old eyes, but also to do something illegal and criminal under the guise of new things.
Innovation is never the result of the top floor design nestled in a small room, but the result of market practice. Don't go for horseback riding in the days when cars are flying fast, and don't post invoices in post offices when you can use email.
What position to embrace supervision? Dodging? Kneeling? Stand up!
According to my contact and perception, there are three ways to greet supervision. Some people dodge supervision and go abroad. There is another kind of kneeling, you say everything right, kneeling for you, okay?
In fact, instead of hiding and kneeling, we should choose to stand, raise our heads, raise our chests, and tell the world your point of view. Become a builder, not a bystander, in a stance of a builder, possessively, earnestly, actively, and practically.
In the coming year, there are three trends worth watching: data, regulatory sandboxes, and licenses.
The first is data . In November, China upgraded the data to the seventh largest factor of production, and can participate in the initial distribution. Data has unprecedentedly improved to a position as important as production factors such as labor, capital, land, knowledge, technology, and management. Moreover, I don't know if you noticed that if you open some commonly used APPs in the past few months, you will jump out to obtain your data authorization or agree to the user's privacy terms. Be sure to click the check mark before you can continue using these APP . These small changes have already happened to us.
The second is a regulatory sandbox and the third is a licence . Recent developments in the regulatory sandbox around the world, including in China, may provide some reference for future trends. Licenses may be the first step towards standardization. We believe that blockchain technology will self-rectify its name and will also accept regulatory "proofs".
The ambitions and dreams of Dachang
On the way to explore the boundaries of the blockchain, there may be many kinds of forces, two of which are the most noticeable. I summarize them into rivers and lakes and temples. Looking at all the technological development trajectories, most of the initial inventions and innovations came from technical geeks, but it is still difficult for geeks to standardize and scale new technologies. Large-scale commercial applications still require organizational capabilities and business operations. Experienced regular forces.
The blockchain has reached this year. At this crossroads, we see more large factories starting to enter the market.
In the next link, I want to talk to you about "the big factory's blockchain ambitions and dreams".
Our colleagues worked hard to sort out a panoramic view of the well-known big factory layout of the blockchain. We will find that each has its own characteristics: Ping An reflects its strong financial attributes. Ants place more emphasis on scenes and commercial landings. Taobao and Ali have a large number of users, and there are rich scenes to explore .
We have interviewed most of the above companies, as well as Lenovo, 360, Haier, etc. that are not on the list. Our comprehensive analysis can find the following characteristics:
1) Three steps in the layout of the big factory: do the underlying protocol, do BaaS, and apply
2) Technical service + cloud service, 2-3 teams explore together
3) Starting from the stock capacity, applying a different play on the ground
4.1 Case Study
Share a few specific cases:
Case one: Tencent electronic invoice
This is Tencent's most commendable landing project in the blockchain field. His basic logic is that users, reporting enterprises, tax departments, and reimbursement departments are all in the same system. Invoicing is reimbursed, greatly improving efficiency.
As of the data as of November, the cumulative invoice volume of blockchain invoices exceeded 10 million, and the total price and tax exceeded 7 billion. It has accessed more than 7,600 enterprises in Shenzhen, covering 110 industries. Application scenarios include banks, supermarkets, and drug stores. , Property, subway taxi, etc.
Last time I was on a business trip in Shenzhen, I used WeChat Pay to scan the code to enter the station. When I was out of the station, WeChat scanned the code to make a payment, and a prompt “Issuing a Blockchain Electronic Invoice” popped up. If the unit involved in this system can directly enter the tax ID And look up to achieve one-click reimbursement.
Case: The person in charge of the parking lot management of Shenzhen Baoan Sports Center told me: they need about 100,000 invoices per month, and the financial staff needs to manually count, distribute, and keep accounts. The workload is huge and error-prone. Now, the workload is greatly reduced, reducing labor costs. More importantly, with blockchain invoices, business data can be chained. When we negotiate operational cooperation, electronic invoice records are proof of business strength.
Case two, cross-border remittance
In June 2018, Ant Financial's blockchain cross-border remittance project was launched. Users of the Hong Kong version of Alipay Alipay can send money to the Philippine wallet Gcash through blockchain technology, with Standard Chartered Bank providing funds clearing and foreign exchange services. This project was personally initiated by Jack Ma and witnessed the birth of the first cross-border payment on the spot, which arrived in 3 seconds.
Each Filipino helper can save 500 Hong Kong dollars each year, and their monthly salary is 5,000 Hong Kong dollars, saving 10% of their income. There are 200,000 Filipino domestic workers in Hong Kong. At present, in addition to Hong Kong to the Philippines, Pakistan to Malaysia's blockchain cross-border payment has also been opened. If the number of users is expanded and the scope of the country is increased, a lot of money will be saved behind this. These are also real values and changes.
Case three, supply chain finance
Similarly, in the field of supply chain finance, blockchain can also play a role.
SME financing has always been difficult and expensive. Ant's blockchain supply chain financial platform was also the first to run through Chengdu.
The owner of the Guanyong electronics store Cai Shirong, the registered capital of this store is only 30 yuan, usually sell things, often receive some IOUs and accounts receivable vouchers. Small businesses have low anti-risk capabilities, making it difficult to obtain loans. Zhongke Daqi Software Co., Ltd. is Guanyong's upstream core enterprise. It is a smart system for scenic spots and provides services for 10,000 scenic spots and hotels. Chengdu SME Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd. is a state-owned guarantee company. Everbright Bank often faced difficulties in assessing the authenticity of its trade background and orders.
This supply chain financial platform will fully guarantee the guarantee letter, transfer the credit of the core enterprise Zhongke Banner on this chain, and grant credit to the Guanyong specialty store, so that the small and medium-sized enterprises that had not been able to loan can smoothly loan. The original three-month billing period was shortened to one second.
At present, there are 275 registered guarantee institutions nationwide, which are expected to cover more than 10 million small and micro businesses. According to iResearch's "Blockchain + Supply Chain Finance Industry Research Report" forecast, by 2023, blockchain can increase the penetration of the supply chain financial market by 28.3%, which will bring about an increase of approximately 3.6 trillion market size.
4.2 Weizhong Open Source Story
After talking about several well-known companies, I also want to start talking about a company, but they take a completely different line: open source .
He is Weizhong Bank. Tencent owns 30% of the shares. There are no offline outlets, and all business is handled online. By 2018, the IT operation and maintenance cost of Weizhong Bank's single account has been reduced to about 10% of traditional banks.
Weizhong Bank uses an open source architecture, and they have demonstrated excellent curiosity in the exploration of the blockchain. After several years of exploration, 10 projects were open-sourced in one go last year, all of which were free for social use. Not only the blockchain business, but also artificial intelligence, big data and other businesses are all open source. With the Golden Chain Alliance initiated by them, more than 100 licensed financial institutions have joined.
Weizhong Bank was the first interviewee of Lingting. I talked with Weizhi Bank Vice President Ma Zhitao and his blockchain team for a total of 10 hours. The interview material was 80,000 words, and it was finally written as 5,000 words.
We all say that the blockchain is distributed, decentralized, and self-organizing, which can solve the problem of trust, but if it is not open source, it is still a black box.
Fan Ruibin is the blockchain leader of Weizhong Bank and a T4 expert at Tencent. T4 experts are very high-level, and the number is very small. During the peak period of mobile QQ, half of the traffic and background technical support were completed by his team.
The time when he started to open source was the most anxious period in his professional experience. I am worried that after the open source, my own things will be ridiculed badly, I am afraid that others will question the code, I am afraid that the team documents are not well written, and so on.
"I used to run in clothes, but now it's a bit like streaking."
What's more important is that there is no way back for open source. When things are released, they will never be collected . They must be brave enough to accept the market test. Because all your data is running outside.
In fact, there is another worry: no one will care about you after open source. "Blockchain is so early that it has a weak cognitive foundation and few users. There are very few people in China who have walked away from the yuan route. We made a big move and threw stones into the water. . "
Fortunately, none of his worries happened.
After open source, the vitality of the market was stimulated: software integrators came, system suppliers came, training institutions came, smart home came, copyright protection came, medical came, financial The company is here, the technology company is here, and many traditional companies looking to transform with blockchain technology are also here.
"If we didn't open source, we would have a hard time finding them. We wouldn't have thought of a lot of ideas."
When the open source button is launched, it is like opening up a new territory of value and attracting all parties to come out spontaneously. Everyone brings friendliness and curiosity to inquire, observe and join their exploration. The collective creativity brought by open source far exceeds the energy of Weizhong.
This open source thinking is also very helpful for team growth:
Open source opens the technical threshold, and even the psychological threshold.
Because all open source, resource sharing. Teams are more demanding on themselves because people are only willing to share their good things. It's like sending pictures to your friends' circle. Everyone will only be willing to take out the beauty photos, and then there will be a market for companies like Beauty and Meitu Xiuxiu. Therefore, it is forcing the team that every document and every line of code on their own must be at the best level in the current stage.
Weizhong's open source practice reminds me of Jiang Taigong fishing. He can only fish one point at a time. Is there any way to make the fish jump out of the pond by itself? Maybe open source is a good choice.
Believe in the power of the market, trust in the power of others, and commit yourself. Open source: Throw the code out, and trust can come back.
In the past few decades, we will find that our society is moving from the era of super organizations to the era of super individuals .
We have come from the industrial era, and we used to hope to take the route of scale and unification. Food stamps, school uniforms, uniforms, and tooling. Unified templates and tools. But now more and more emphasis on individualized aesthetics, customization, niche circles, craftsmanship and craftsmanship.
We woke up from the old organizational form and began to focus on the power of the individual. This is similar to the open source, open, inclusive, and decentralized self-organizing method on the bottom of the blockchain. The bottom line is the same. Therefore, if you chat with people in the blockchain industry, you will find that there are not many inherent frames in our thinking, and there are not too many old concepts. Everything can be created, everything can be programmed, and everything can be customized .
Having said that, I couldn't help but want to share the story of the interview with Kong Jianping. I asked him: As the first share of the blockchain, Jia Nan Yunzhi, do you have a corporate culture?
He didn't think about it: no.
He seemed to realize that it seemed bad to say so. Added: It's not that we don't, but we don't want to generalize. The future of blockchain companies has a lot of imagination. We don't think it is necessary to frame a concept now and continue to iterate for a while.
His thinking is similar to many blockchain teams I have contacted. Most blockchain companies are relatively free. They do not hang company banners on the wall, but let everyone know where our goals and directions are, and where everyone is going. After all, no one wants to be brainwashed.
Well, after sharing the micro public, everyone can know that their key word is open source.
4.3 The Story of Ant Blockchain Trust
Let's talk about ants. The key word for ants is trust .
Ant Financial believes that blockchain is the most ideal technical solution to "solve trust issues ."
When Taobao was established, there was no volume for a long time. What should I do if the buyer pays and the seller does not ship? Until the launch of Alipay, using the platform to guarantee transactions, it solved the problem of people's mistrust in transactions, which opened a breakthrough. Today, they have become cosmic applications. Ten years later, Ant Financial also launched Sesame Credit, which solved the problem of trust transfer, and allowed more and more users to perform services to enjoy deposit-free car rental and house rental services.
From secured transactions to sesame credit to ant blockchain, they have also made trust a big business.
"Every place where the process is complicated and long is a place where trust is lacking, and we are eliminating one by one." Jiang Guofei said.
"Ant has been implemented in more than 40 industries, so what is your core judgment? Which ones can be used, which cannot be used, and how?" I asked Jiang Guofei a series of follow-up questions.
Jiang Guofei cleared his throat and quickly said, "Every time I ask myself three questions."
The first is what problem to solve . Some need to solve the problem of trust, and some need to solve the problem of value transfer. What problem to solve.
Second: Is it necessary to use a blockchain? Trust, disputes, conflicts of interest, etc., can be seen clearly, but many are false demands. Therefore, it is necessary to answer clearly: Why must we use the blockchain. Whether it is the reconstruction of production relations or the improvement on the original basis. These two can be thought about first.
The third one is to figure out where the entire business loop is . How to coordinate the participants, business processes, and implementation paths, and finally how to achieve a closed business loop. These questions will help us make comprehensive business judgments. Can solve practical problems, it will inevitably bring practical value, only by solving the fundamental problems, it is possible to bring lasting value.
4.4 Alliance Chain and Public Chain
In the past year, the alliance chain represented by Dachang has ushered in the spring.
In the field of blockchain, there have been disputes between public chains and alliance chains, and even there is a certain degree of contempt. The public chain believes that the alliance chain is a staged product, but only an improvement in the original production relationship, not a real blockchain. It believes that the research of the blockchain by the major manufacturers is their own life, so it is impossible for the major manufacturers to do Good blockchain. One side of the alliance chain believes that the public chain uses computing power to achieve consensus among infinite nodes, which consumes a lot of operating costs and natural resources. This is a technical problem that can never be properly solved.
Let ’s not say who is right or who is wrong with these two for the time being, let ’s stretch the historical dimension first and look at several data from the past 40 years.
This is a list of the top ten companies in the global market capitalization over the past 40 years. In the list, in the 1990s, telecommunications and telephone companies and banks were the mainstream; in the first 10 years of this century, companies such as inter and General Electric began to appear. Microsoft began to appear, software and communications were mainstream; to the last decade, Apple, Wal-Mart and other technology companies, consumer companies began to rank among the top ten global market capitalization; to this 10 years, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Ali, Tencent. All internet companies.
We see that change has never happened overnight. It is a high-level productivity replacement for another . Under the current circumstances, the alliance chain should be the most effective way to achieve it. Large companies have relatively strong competitiveness in terms of resources, technology, and expert personnel. It has not yet reached the stage where the ship is difficult to turn around. At this stage, in the technological innovation of the blockchain, the big factory is more like a flexible fat man.
In fact, the market enters 2020. Regardless of the public chain or alliance chain, in the next competition, the ability to realize projects will become a key competitiveness .
Although the code is open source, it cannot be used directly in the development business. From code to software, from software to productization, product commercialization, and then a series of commercial operations, it is a long and complicated process. Therefore, in the next year, the ability to realize projects will become a key competitiveness.
4.5 Rise of Industrial Blockchain
For industrial blockchain, I think it needs to rely on two forces: Internet giants + large traditional industries. The amount mentioned above is the layout of the big companies in the Internet world. In the next 2020, larger-scale changes will happen in the industry and in the scene. In 2020, the industry will be more important than blockchain .
Especially in the second half of this year, the slogan of the industrial blockchain will be particularly loud. Yes, I especially like to create new words these years. The consumer Internet has come to the Industrial Internet. Before the Industrial Internet understands what is going on, we have entered the era of industrial blockchain. But whether you are ready or not, the wheels of the times are rolling forward. The only thing we can do is to arm our minds, find good entry points, and create some real value.
Babbitt also led the market demand and established the Industrial Blockchain Group at the first time. We integrated the media, investment, incubation and technology teams. In 2020, I will lead this group to go deeper into the industry and do more landing projects.
The Babbitt industrial blockchain does three things: training, consulting services, and technology solutions .
The training is to be an industry pilot class and industry class; the consulting services are to be media communication and brand full case services, that is, consulting services for blockchain landing projects; in addition, we also need to provide a complete set of technical solutions to help core companies go Establishing a closed loop of talents, a closed loop of industry, a closed loop of technology, some of which we can do ourselves, and some of which we can't, we need many technical service providers to join this action.
If you have demand in the industrial end, government demand, or you are a technical service provider, you are welcome to contact us and hope that through our efforts, we can make a small contribution to the true realization of the industrial blockchain era.
This year, I share these cases with many large companies. I look forward to next year, when Ling listens to the 2021 New Year's speech, we can walk and measure with our feet, next year will bring more lively industrial cases.
V. Libra and DCEP: the advent of the digital currency era
Libra's mission is to build a simple, borderless currency and financial infrastructure that serves billions of people and is based in Geneva, Switzerland. The members of the Libra Association include various companies, non-profit organizations, multilateral organizations and academic institutions around the world, with about 100 founding members. It anchors a basket of currencies: the US dollar accounts for 50%, the others are the euro (18%), the yen (14%), the pound sterling (11%), and the Singapore dollar (7%).
China ’s central bank digital currency is abbreviated as “DC / EP”, “DC” is the abbreviation of “Digital Currency”, and “EP” is the abbreviation of “Electronic Payment”. Function is to serve as an electronic payment method. DC / EP adopts a two-tier operation system, with the central bank as the upper layer and the commercial bank as the second layer; commercial institutions pay 100% of the reserve to the central bank; there is no preset technical route; focus on M0 replacement, not M1, M2 replacement DC / EP must adhere to a centralized management model.
The following picture shows the comparison of the two projects:
Share a few important data:
1. At least 1.7 billion people worldwide (31% of the global population) do not yet have bank accounts;
2. Cross-border transfers take an average of 3-5 working days;
3． The average handling fee for cross-border transfers is 7% ;
4． 85% of all global transactions use cash;
5. U.S. retail industry loses $ 40 billion annually due to cash theft;
6. People without a bank account pay $ 4 more per month for cash than those with a bank account;
7. If Facebook realized digital financial services around the world, it could bring an increase of $ 3.7 trillion to the global economy and add 95 million jobs. In 2020, the most anticipated is whether Libra and DC / EP can land. Obviously, the game between China and the United States is full of various aspects. On the one hand, the trade war is still in full swing, and on the other hand, the global payment system using cutting-edge technologies is also competing. Libra is facing huge regulatory doubts, and DC / EP also needs public wisdom to work together. Although Libra is the first to launch, it is not as good as DC / EP and it is a great step forward to open up the land with the power of national innovation. Therefore, DC / EP may appear in our vision faster than Libra. The answer given by the waiting time.
The Blockchain's Wealth View
The blockchain field is full of various rich myths, and you will hear various lace news saying who has turned it many times. But what you hear may be the survivor bias. The currency circle is a place where wealth is made, and most people are the ones who make others rich.
Today, let's set aside something too macro, and talk about a very grounded and a little deep-going question-the wealth concept of the blockchain. First, let's look at the top of the food chain in this industry. In 2019, people in the blockchain field entered Hurun and Forbes rich list for the first time. It is also a signal that the industry has begun to grow.
On February 26, 2019, the Hurun Global Rich List 2019 was released. The list shows that Zhanke Group has 18.5 billion yuan in wealth, Ripple founder Chris Larsen has 11 billion yuan, Wu Jihan has 10 billion yuan, and Coinbase founder Brain Armstrong has 9 billion yuan.
The above stories are a little far away from me. Let me tell you a story around me first.
Old cat is one of my interviewees. I talked to him at the West Lake for three hours last year. He is a very sincere and earthly person.
He was a government servant early, resigned at the age of 30, and opened a Taobao shop. In 2014, Alibaba went public, and the old cat had a premonition: "The giant is about to form and the e-commerce bonus period has ended." He closed the Taobao store and entered the blockchain industry. From 2016 to 2017, he has become a good old man in the circle by doing projects and writing articles.
I interviewed him in June 2018. The second month I came to work in Babbitt. At that time, I was very curious, saying that in this circle, the wealth effect is very obvious. How much money do you have? He was also very sincere and talked about a few data. I have forgotten how much it is, anyway, it is very rich.
My second question is: what do you think of wealth? And how much do you think you need? He said that the question was well asked. I really thought about it. Then he gave me a formula. I knew for the first time that there were still people who had calculated the problem.
Suppose that for the rest of his life, he spends 1,000 yuan per day on calculation, pure consumption. How much do you count? Not counting fixed assets, pure consumption. Total: 30 years * 365 days * 1000 yuan = 10.95 million. A family of three, that is 30 million.
The old cat said, "If it is not a very strong material demand and purely for personal consumption, it is not easy to spend 1,000 yuan a day. Over time, you may find that you may not spend it."
I met him again last month one year later. Now he is already in Japan, doing some interesting blockchain exploration. He told me about his driving trip in the United States, watching whale swimming by the sea, his life was calm and indifferent. He told me, "Maybe I'm looking for something, although I can't say clearly. But the state is very good."
Also a well-known person, Vitalik announced his own cryptocurrency portfolio and other sources of income. At the age of 25, he has huge wealth.
The last time he came to Hangzhou, I asked him in an interview with him: What do you think of the so much money you have? He said: Having a lot of wealth just makes me feel secure, so I don't have to worry about the future. He prefers technology research to wealth freedom. The pursuit of innovative technology and brave attempts has earned financial and value returns.
This is the case of two interviews around. After talking about individuals, let's take a look at organizations: Ant Financial and Weizhong Bank.
When interviewing Ant Financial and Weizhong Bank, I found that they were losing money in a serious book. Because many people are in the investment stage and have not yet reached the stage of large-scale commercial harvest.
How can Ant's overall business be commercialized? Jing Xiandong said: We will not talk too much about specific income, profit and return. We often talk about how many people can change and how many small and micro businesses can be served because of this.
Similarly, I also left the same question to Ma Zhitao, Vice President of Weizhong Bank. He said: "Our selfishness is: financial services that are ultimately derived. Applications that run on the underlying platform will eventually require corresponding financial services. If they fall into financial services, that is the strength of Weizhong. Of course, we hope Weizhong is just one of these financial service providers, not the only one. "
"But the company is a business organization after all, what if it continues to make no money?" I asked. Ma Zhitao said:
"The value that a single technology can play is limited. We do n’t care too much about the technology investment of a single technology, but look at the overall benefits. At present, this revenue inflection point may come soon. In the past two years, we have been building industry influence For example, the number of cases and market share based on our underlying technology in the market. Therefore, the ability to set standards is very important, so that our technology can become the de facto standard in the market. "
From the above, we can see that, whether it is a company or an individual, we have many progress bars. Since the kindergarten teachers wore us a little red flower, we have been labeled a lot of labels, a lot of progress bars, including market share, performance, fame, status, honor, wealth, affection, family, life value and so on.
What are the indicators of your life progress bar? What do you care about most? What would it be like to rank him? This question is also left to everyone. do not tell me. Tell the people you love and the people who love you.
In fact, the blockchain wealth concept has nothing to do with wealth. It's about the value of everyone's heart . What are the anchor points of your life value? Wealth in the form of money is just a digital return of all your hard work and effort. Money made by luck is lost by strength.
Why I choose blockchain
At the end of 2017, I plan to resign from the Wu Xiaobo channel, because I foresee the market in the city that after 16-17 years of rapid growth in new media, from a traffic perspective, the dividends of the new media were also almost over.
但人在做选择时， 人本性上是更偏好稳定和依赖感，必须要非常用勇气的人才能看得见别人看不到的东西 。但是呢，但这是个飞速发展的行业，需要经常把自己碎掉又重建，你以前学到的，想到的，或者坚定认可的东西，很有可能成为未来发展的桎梏，所以，把自己碎掉又重建，重建又碎掉，这种过程还挺考验人的，勇气不够的人，在半路上可能就又打回去了。
In the field of blockchain, there are no authoritative experts, no indisputable definitions, no previous experience for reference, and everyone is an adventurer in the unknown world, exploring the boundaries of the dark world. The new year is coming, and every friend is also invited to bring your curiosity and courage to a small chance of great success .
8. Cycle research: Today, are you γ201?
Dear friends, the next step is the most important knowledge point.
Marx has a famous saying that "people are the sum of all social relations". In the development path of new technology, there can also be a definition of "the development trend of a new technology is the sum of all market participants' expectations Including their irrational psychological cognition. "
The law of any thing may have some curves. In fact, the cognition of new things will also show a lot of S curves of different shapes. Do you remember the Gartner curve from the beginning of my speech?
The above picture only shows one final result, so how did he form behind him? What factors will be affected?
Xorder Labs, the think tank partner of this multi-year speech, helped us to make two research models , set different parameters in the laboratory, and perform 3000 rounds of interaction in each experiment. The growth curve in the figure ran out of different growth curves.
I think these results can not only help us understand the cognition of blockchain, but also apply to the cognition of other emerging technologies, because the underlying research reveals universal laws, and only by grasping the essential laws closer to the display can we See farther than others.
The first model analyzes people who enter the field of blockchain: we are divided into three categories based on the crowd's perception of blockchain: value investors (believers), blind followers (wall grass) and contrarian arbitrage (Postpone).
Case 1: 10% of believers, 90% of speculators, half of which are blind followers and opponents. After multiple rounds of decision-making in the model, as shown in the left picture above; Case 2: 80% of believers, a small number of speculators , Blind followers and blind opponents each accounted for 10%, as shown above right.
We can see that when the believers account for the majority in the market, the overall trend of technological development is more in line with the S-curve, and the periodic technological maturity curve is not obvious. The overall market expectations follow the adherence of the believers. And gradually rising (red line: real value; blue: value shown by the market).
Of course, there are more complex intermediate states. Taking case one as an example, the following characteristics will be found in the decomposition time period: 10% of believers and 90% of speculators, of which half of blind followers and opponents. After multiple rounds of decision making in the model, the graph looks like this:
After zooming in, although the overall trend of the technology is still gradually approaching the value of the S curve, but especially at the beginning, it is full of roller coasters.
In the early days, the curve was a roller coaster overturn—the enthusiasm and expectation of speculators for participation would overestimate the value of technology;
In the medium term, due to the lack of patience on the part of the grassroots and the reverse operation of the minority, the value is usually lower than the actual level;
Finally, the expected return slowly approaches the actual value through the advancement of time.
But value investors are never directly from 10% to 90%, there are still many complicated situations in the middle:
Situation Three believers account for 50%, and the remaining speculators account for 50%. There will be three typical situations
The characteristics of Figure 1 are periodic hype; the characteristics of Figure 2 are that the expected game of each party is relatively stable, and the overall growth is stable, and the stages are evenly matched; Hype drives many agitated little hype.
1. The proportion of value investors determines the trend of the technology curve.
2. The more value investors there are, the more stable the curve is, and the overall tendency is towards the development trend of low frequency and long period.
3. If there are more speculators, the higher the fluctuation frequency, the greater the amplitude.
4. If all of them are speculators or hinders, the curve will not rise, only low-level repetitions will occur. Well, the above is a graph of people who have participated in the development of new technologies with different mentalities and starting points. So what will happen when the horizon is extended to the entire market? The following picture:
Take the friends at the site of today's New Year's Eve speech as an example. Those who can come to the site should be interested people, that is, interested people, in the middle position, which is 1.
Those who deeply believe in the blockchain, have knowledge, and have invested time and energy in it, we define it as user, which is 2.
There are also our family, friends, and former colleagues. These are positioned as 0, which is related to the blockchain and may be affected, that is, potential user, which is 0.
Of course, the conversion factors of the three types of subjects are not all because of the bragging rights of the people around them, but also other key factors, such as the difficulty of technological development, macro policy supervision, etc., the implementation of large-scale commercial use, and the actual role of technology in people's lives.
Regarding W, the green line indicates the natural main group flow rate, which can be simply understood as the number and speed of entering the circle.
The green line can't resist when Wup is particularly small. Only by maintaining a stable level like the blue line can long-term stable development be possible.
You can see the red curve. If the speed and number of people are too fast, after the highest peak, the larger the Wup, the faster the speed will return to 0. Is this as fast as we usually say, fast and fast? Whether it is accumulation of wealth or accumulation of feelings. That's all.
And there are too many exchanges on the market, and the target of the transaction is not enough. There is too much media. The news is not enough to follow the trend, and when it leaves, it will run faster and become a bird and animal. Therefore, we must be vigilant in all acts of pursuing the wind. Rather, it is necessary to truly understand the value of technology and understand and agree with his long-term value, so that it is possible to go further.
W: Positive feedback (self-evolution of technology, operation of existing social and environmental conditions, technical friction, etc.) passive factors
Y: The positive social influence of technology (central speech, self-learning multi-year speech)
Under the premise of ensuring that the technology maturity curve has positive expectations, we need to explore the effect of γ201. Because γ201 represents the impact of users on potential users. It can be seen that when the γ201 is larger, the peaks in the hype cycle are higher, and the valleys are higher. We can also say that the γ201 ratio determines the true value of the emerging technology market. So let more people who do n’t know enter from 0 to 1,
And how to make more "out-of-circle" groups become users, there are two important influencing factors, W and γ, these two factors are the socio-economic environment and technical ease of reference.
When I saw this research and conclusions, it was very enlightening, that is, when we were suffering from technical bottlenecks and market sentiment fluctuated, we could no longer be infinitely anxious and helpless.
This reminds me of a metaphor: migratory birds. Its characteristic is that a swarm of wind comes fast and goes fast. We should look for people who truly recognize the value of the blockchain. To go longer.
to sum up:
What happened in the blockchain industry?
· Confirmation and uncertainty make up real life
· If you compare the company, bitcoin can enter the global top 100
· The industry is small, but the prospects are great
· What color is your 2019? How does blockchain change lives?
· Blockchain is the most ideal technical solution for "solving trust issues"
· Open source opens the technical threshold, but also the psychological threshold
Babbitt does three things: training, consulting, and technical solutions Who chooses blockchain?
· The majority of mature professionals with high education background
Large talent gap, scarce compound talents
· Early company VS mature professionals, test management wisdom Blockchain wealth concept?
Blockchain wealth concept has nothing to do with wealth
· We have entered the era of "super individuals"
· What are your life value progress bars? 2020, which are the most worth watching?
· Three trends: data, regulatory sandbox, license
· Project realization ability will become a key competitiveness
Industry is more important than blockchain What do you think about the future?
· Those who are interested in the blockchain are the value chassis of the blockchain
· Bring curiosity and courage to go to a small success with high probability
· Today, are you γ201?
Special tribute time: It is also a serious self-hacking time. First of all, thank my parents. They most likely don't understand what I'm talking about, but they still watch the live broadcast in front of the TV. Secondly, thanks to iQiyi Finance, your live broadcast, so that ordinary people such as my parents can access such professional things as blockchain, you are the biggest trader of gamma 201.
I would like to thank Teacher Meng Yan, Tony and Frank, and thank you for making the New Year's Eve speech from a stand-up cross talk to a group cross talk.
I want to thank the more than 50 media present, and thank you for not hacking me. Thanks to my speech instructor, Lu Bufan, who came from New Oriental. Her training brought me one step closer to the stand-up comic actor.
Thank you President Luo Chongjie. You from Tencent are always preparing for the New Year's Eve speech by Tencent standards. Thank you for giving me so many diss and challenges. Thank you Zhang Yuxin. He is now an expert on the blockchain industry think tank of Babbitt. Since preparing Lingting together, he has also become a content expert for Lingting, an expert who specializes in overtime. Thank you, Babbitt, for your content. Although most of the first version of the speech you wrote was changed by me, the material you brought in the front line of news is the most true history of this era.
Thanks to everyone on the scene. Although the reception was not good, we were done.
In fact, the most important thing is to thank everyone who came to the scene to listen to me from all over the country. I don't know if the results delivered today are satisfactory. If you are not satisfied, please be angry yourself. There is no way to return the goods. Welcome to pay attention to Ling's public account of the blockchain to praise or criticize me, praise in person, criticize and send a private letter.
I also want to thank myself for preparing the New Year's Eve speech for 2 months and losing 10 pounds. It turned out that the best way to lose weight is to make the New Year's Eve speech. In the end, I want to thank two important men behind me, one is Babbitt's founder Chang Yan, and the other is Babbitt CEO Wang Lei.