Original: Five Fireball Leaders
In recent days, fluctuating currency prices have made people in the blockchain industry boring to the extreme, and several originally extremely active groups have gradually begun to fall into freezing points and no one speaks.
This is the WeChat group. It is the most active during the skyrocketing, and everyone comes up with something to say; when the skyrocketing is actually okay, the sorrow of the full position, the short position or the comfort or cynicism. The situation is so terrible for only one or two months. No one has the desire to speak because they don't know what to say.
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I believe that these days, "analysts" facing various analysis of the K-line are also very distressed, analyze it, there is nothing to analyze at all, every day like that, do n’t analyze it, the article still has to be published, otherwise the subscription is missing. Who cried. And these days, a topic that has awakened a lot of group chat is-Just.Game, how much have you lost?
01 Have you played?
1. Why do most people participate ?
If you have been following the industry dynamics, then you may not know Just.Game. There are too many introductory articles on the rules of Just.Game, so I won't go into details here. If you feel that the introduction is not detailed enough, there is a 4D white paper on the official website to download and research.
During the first 48 hours of the game, some groups were already active. Have more than one friend ask if you want to participate? I ask them back, what is your reason for deciding to participate? Their answer is basically this:
This is similar to the Fomo3D game back then. The rules are transparent ZJP. The probability of rushing in the first time is high! Just think about the Fomo3D game back then.
I laugh while saying nothing.
2. Statistics : The current loss rate is extremely high
Let's see how many people have lost so far.
According to data from DappReview, out of the nearly 5,000 participating users, only the first 110 or more are returning books.
What criteria do you need to meet to become these 116 users? It's also very simple-you can enter the market three minutes before opening (without re-investment).
The funny thing is that because of delays in opening and sudden opening without announcement, the most severely cut was Sun Yuchen , who invested 100 million TRX in the live broadcast. The current loss rate is close to 86%.
What was the number of active users in the past 24 hours, around 500, and 150 new users. Looking at this situation, President Sun is estimated to be hopeless.
It is said that there are already activist groups on the Internet. Some people say that 80,000 go in and 400 out. One group friend originally wanted to earn a breakfast, but lost two years of breakfast …
3. Tracing Just.Game's "Previous" Fomo3D Game
The Fomo3D game of the year had a profit and loss ratio of 2: 8.
One weekend, after Fomo spread silently abroad for a few days, it was introduced into the country at a participation amount of 4,000 ETH. At that time, vernacular and several other blockchain head media reported it on the same day and reported it. Named "Ponzi scheme that will never end"
Participating ETH also skyrocketed from 4,000 to more than 60,000 within 24 hours. In fact, in Fomo3D games, you can see how much Chinese people spend in the circle.
So what's the problem? It is almost a phenomenon-level Fomo3D game. The core team of the original class (2 of them), a "masterpiece" that took more than a year to develop, came online for an hour and almost counted as a return.
02 Where did you lose?
1. An opportunity everyone knows, or is it an opportunity?
This principle has been verified countless times in various fields in history, and blockchain is no exception. After the Ethercat fire, a bunch of imitation projects like Ethereum dog, Ethereum rabbit and so on appeared. Nowadays, even the Ethereum cat is hardly noticed, and the situation of these competing products is even more conceivable.
After Fomo3D was popular at the time, a large number of imitation disks appeared on the market. Many even left a back door in the smart contract , and the team directly circled the money to run. Regardless of true or false, these imitation disks have now disappeared.
Although Just.Game said that the two core developments came from Fomo3D, its essence is still an imitation of Fomo, which belongs to changing the soup and not changing the medicine. The time when Fomo was really profitable that year was actually before it entered the Chinese market. After collective reports from the media, it took only a little more than a day for 4000 ETH to 60,000 ETH, and then the game ended at 100,000 ETH. .
So strictly speaking, the window to make money is only the first two days of poor information at home and abroad, or the first few hours of media coverage.
And this time, almost everyone knew the news that Just.Game was about to open the first time, and everyone wanted to rush in, but what many people didn't think about was: What is your advantage?
Where is your advantage
If all players know and think about the game "I want to rush in the first time", where is the advantage over other people in the absence of poor information?
Is your hand faster than others?
Is the Internet faster than people?
Or is luck better than others?
Or do you know how to write scripts or call contract transfers directly?
So he rushed in, and became "cannon fodder" without any doubt. Although the profitable account is currently less than 3% due to the team's share ratio being too high and no signs of opening, etc., even if you increase the proportion to 20% like Fomo then, you still have to think clearly about what makes you do it. The "two" in the Eight Laws, not others.
Furthermore, do you think about the unique advantages of those who make money in the field of blockchain investment instead of those who lose 80% of the money?
3. Problems exposed by similar games
Fomo3D ended the first round in an unexpected way, and all the analysis originally thought that the game would last a long time. Fomo3D showed people genius-like creativity and made everyone wonder: wow! The original blockchain can still be used this way! Although it's just a ZJP.
However, Fomo3D exposes a bigger problem, that is, the problem of Ethereum itself. A public chain determined to be a "world computer" can be blocked by a hacker in a way that is filled with junk transactions by other hackers, thereby winning a big prize. I can't imagine what it would look like when running thousands of Fomo3D on ETH.
What Just.Game reveals is just the helpless status quo and human greed in the current circle. After the game is started for 2 ~ 3 hours, there are almost no newcomers entering, and some are only a few sporadic boxes at regular intervals, which are automatically purchased by the game script. Those who want to play this game have basically participated in 2 hours before the opening.
The consequence is that everyone is waiting to sit in the sedan chair, and no one lifts it …
03 to dark moments-the disappointing state of the blockchain
Some people say that the end of 2018 is the darkest moment of the blockchain. In contrast to the current state of the blockchain, the end of 2019 is likely to be a darker year than last year, although the price of Bitcoin is more than double this time last year.
1. Disillusionment of the primary market
Remember the madness of the primary market and investment casting in the second half of last year? Now, how long have you never talked to others in a group about "how about this new project"? It can be said that 1E0 in the first half of 2019 drained the last impulse of the primary market.
Nowadays, the few first-level projects that will be brought up and talked about are the real giants or stars, such as Poca, such as Filecoin , Telegram Open Network …
And even the star project can not avoid the embarrassment of breaking the hair on the line: Algorand has been online for less than half a year, and the price has dropped by 90%; the hash map has been online for less than three months, and the price has dropped by 90%; Giant Jia Nan Yunzhi broke his hair on the Nasdaq on the first day, and fell to a market value of nearly 50% at most …
2. Glaciers in the secondary market
A few days ago The Block posted that 95% of cryptocurrencies are currently illiquid based on order depth, and this number is expected to continue to increase. In other words, 95% of blockchain projects on the market are "dead." If we consider the loss of liquidity in the currency of the secondary market as the death standard of an item.
And even the most liquid Bitcoin, its real transaction volume is not optimistic, especially in the spot market. The long sideways and frequent drawing doors show that the current trading desire of the market is extremely low, and this is a market with artificial manipulation.
In this case, Just.Game brought a glimmer of hope to thousands of people, and quickly made it disappear within 3 hours. And if we consider the EOS mainnet launch in 2018 as an important node in the development of DApps, then one and a half years have passed, and we still seem to be spinning in place.
From the application recommendation on the homepage of DAppReview, we can see what the current DApp is still doing.
3.DeFi-the only life-saving straw
In recent months, I can't remember how many projects are transforming DeFi. It seems that DeFi has become the only life-saving straw in the blockchain world. I seem to have seen the next DApp-like end.
Because, like DApps, DeFi, which is extremely hot, is still separate from the real economy or the off-chain world. The daily activity of a few hundred people is still a group of miners or speculators with increased leverage. In the short term, DeFi is like a decentralized platform coin, with a clear profit model and price transmission mechanism.
However, in the long run, if 95% of the Tokens are “no one is trading” or proved to be air, then the venues for these transactions or lending are provided accordingly-whether it is a digital asset financial platform or DeFi, their token value, Where to go for capture, or where did it come from?
This is really torture from the soul.
04 an interesting question
Before Just.Game opened, a friend asked me this question:
You say Fomo or Just, which is essentially the same as ZJP and "walking mode". The rules are transparent and you are sure that the project party will not run away. So why are so many people involved in "Go Mode" and ZJP coming to play FOMO or Just? This puzzled me.
I thought about it and answered:
Perhaps it is because everything is transparent and visible that you lose that mysterious stimulus. After all, in the "walk mode" or ZJP, you never know how good you are, how many people are in front, how many are in the back, when is the team running …
Everything is uncertain and unknown. This unknown can often give people hope, even courage.
However, they will eventually lose to their greed.
"Disclaimer : This article is the author's independent opinion, does not represent the vernacular blockchain position, nor does it constitute any investment opinions or suggestions. The copyright of the article and the final interpretation right belong to the vernacular blockchain. A