Source: Shallot Blockchain
Unlike the bear market, which lasted for a whole year in 2018, Bitcoin has shown a strong upward performance in the first half of 2019, which has just risen from below $ 4,000 to more than $ 13,000, even in the second half of the year. After the gains retreated, the annual closing price still maintained an increase of nearly double the price at the beginning of the year. However, investors in the bitcoin futures market did not seem to be able to make a lot of money in this "up, down, down" market.
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The latest data released by data analysis agency Unfolded shows that the total amount of bitcoin futures contracts on the BitMEX exchange in 2019 was as high as 19.6 billion U.S. dollars, but many of them were close to 13 billion U.S. dollars. Reached more than 60% of the total liquidation ratio.
Compared with 2018, which was in a bear market atmosphere almost all year round, the total amount of bitcoin contracts in BitMEX Exchange in 2019 and the number of short and long positions have increased, but the proportion of long positions No significant changes have occurred. In addition, from the scatter chart of the liquidation, after the rapid rebound of Bitcoin in early April 2019, the liquidation of the market has increased significantly compared with the beginning of the year, which shows that the active market has made the market trading fast. Return, but the rapid rebound of bitcoin prices in the first half of the year has continued to ferment the bullish sentiment of the market, which has become a major incentive for a large number of orders in the second half.
With the rapid correction of bitcoin prices in the second half of this year, the optimism of the mid-year market has now been severely damaged. Some analysts pointed out that according to the average leverage of 25 times the Bitcoin contract products provided by the BitMEX exchange, about 800 million user funds were liquidated in the past year. The weak performance of the market in the second half of the year has seriously affected market participation. Regarding the market outlook, although bitcoin has temporarily held the $ 6,000 integer mark during the recent correction, a large number of orders may be sold out, which may cause bitcoin to undergo a long period of "reconstruction of confidence" in the first half of next year. It is not good news for the market in the first half of next year.
Although there are still many bitcoin supporters who have expressed bullish attitude towards bitcoin when they expect the market in 2020, Michael Novogratz's conservative expectation that the price of bitcoin at the end of 2020 is only $ 12,000 In the past, we have been able to see some signals that the optimism of the loyal fans of Bitcoin has actually loosened.
In simple terms, due to the objective existence of a large number of long positions on market sentiment, if Bitcoin cannot make a strong rise in the first quarter of this year, then even if the price of Bitcoin can benefit from halving rewards, Bitcoin will also It is difficult to reproduce the bull market performance in the first half of 2019 and the end of 2017 in a short time.