Where is the wind blowing in 2020? 20 domestic and overseas institutions and big coffee forecasts in 13 dimensions

Finishing | PANews

2019 is a year of vigorous development of the blockchain, public chain facilities are gradually improved, the DeFi field is emerging, and traditional institutions have successively entered the market to make the industry gradually warmer.

Time has leapt into 2020, and the new decade begins with new opportunities and challenges. PANews has selected the forecast perspectives of more than 20 investment institutions at home and abroad, and big customers from 13 dimensions such as Bitcoin, infrastructure, supervision, capital operation, and trading market that readers pay attention to. Everyone is welcome to collect it and come up with "reconciliation" by the end of 2020.

o1 Bitcoin: halved to drive up the value, without a lot of external funds entering the bear market   

Pantera Partner Paul Veradittakit

Halving BTC mining rewards will result in fewer miners verifying transactions and mining on the blockchain, and (compared to the status quo) miners will become relatively scarce, which in turn will increase the value of Bitcoin.

Outlier Ventures

In 2020, regarding the development of Bitcoin, it will shift from a simple "value store" to an open "financial platform", with the most secure and trusted settlement layer in the market. At the end of the year, Bitcoin's market value increased from 66% to at least 75% in the cryptocurrency market.

Former Goldman Sachs partner SpartanBlock

The price of BTC will reach $ 40,000 in 2020. The reason is that halving the Bitcoin block will bring about a tightening of supply.

Blockchain Coinvestor

Developing countries will firmly support BTC, and in some cases will use other forms of digital assets. In 2020, the entire Latin America will be inseparable from BTC.

Messari

The "Chinese story" of the blockchain still has great imagination in the global crypto market. In the years after 2020, China and the United States will cause more discussions around the "Bitcoin Ban", and in the process, The price of cryptocurrencies will also rise.

Fundamental Labs

BTC's positioning as a "digital gold" and its use as a hedging tool for world macro-political and economic risks will become the first choice for traditional institutions to enter, and BTC's market share will continue to remain between 60% -75%.

In mining, the emergence of machines with stronger computing power and lower energy consumption will attract mainstream institutions to enter and promote the growth of the overall network computing power. In 2020, the total computing power of BTC mining may reach around 200E.

NGC Ventures

In 2020, the head effect of Bitcoin will be more obvious, and it will still be a bear market before a large number of external funds officially enter the market.

Xu Kun, Vice President of Strategy, OKEx

In 2020, the mainstream currencies represented by BTC will return to value. The market value of BTC will rise to more than 70%, and more than 20% of households worldwide regard BTC as an important part of asset allocation.

o2 DeFi: cross-chain technology empowerment, BTC will replace ETH

Fundamental Labs

DeFi will continue to deepen its development. Compared to ETH, it is more optimistic about DeFi products on protocols such as Polkadot and Cosmos, and through cross-chain technology to open up the sleeping assets and users on BTC.

Wave Financial

In 2020, BTC will replace Ethereum as the main cryptocurrency locked in DeFi.

Pantera Partner Paul Veradittakit

The growth trend of DeFi in 2019 will continue until 2020. In the new year, the crypto industry will more actively explore the various potentials of decentralized finance in the real world, such as borrowing, mortgages, retail payments, Arbitrage, etc.

Outlier Ventures

In 2020, there will be no more applications for Ethereum, but DeFi will continue to be hot, and the total value of locked positions in Ethereum will exceed $ 1 billion.

Blockchain Capital

The value of assets locked in DeFi will exceed $ 2 billion, and KYC / AML will become a new battlefield for DeFi regulatory compliance.

NGC Ventures

Open finance will be more comprehensive than a single DeFi, because it still leaves room for cooperation with traditional finance. As the ecology of cross-chain projects becomes more mature, more quality Defi projects will be attracted.

Creation Capital

In 2020, we are optimistic about supply chain finance, digital asset governance, and blockchain industry standards and related ecological areas. DeFi is a sustainable development direction. We once proposed a simi-DeFi, an open financial product, such as asset on-chain, increasing liquidity, and promoting asset trading.

Peter Johnson, Head of Jump Capital

DeFi is still the most innovative development direction in the encryption field, but the possibility of DeFi breakthrough growth in 2020 is very small, but it is still a good direction in the long run.

o3 STAKING: Service providers are struggling to survive

Fundamental Labs

As the infrastructure of the PoS network, the value of the Staking network will continue to increase as Polkadot, Dfinity and other mainnets are launched. However, 2020 will be a year of big waves, and Staking will eventually move towards relative concentration like PoW mining players. However, only 5-10 service providers with strong financial strength and user traffic advantages can survive.

Former Goldman Sachs partner SpartanBlock

Staking fees will drop to 0, and half of the more than 200 pledge providers will go bankrupt. The reason is that the commission commissioned by Staking has dropped from 20% a year ago to 10%. Binance has started to provide 0-fee Staking services, and other exchanges will follow up.

o4 Central bank digital currency: 500 million people in China use DCEP by the end of 2020

Pantera Partner Paul Veradittakit

China may launch a "digital yuan" in early 2020 and will support a variety of users, such as loans, retail payments, taxes, etc.

Outlier Ventures

In 2020, China may officially launch digital currency electronic payment (DCEP). By the end of the year, more than 500 million Chinese will use services connected to the DCEP network.

Peter Johnson, Head of Jump Capital

In 2020, the central bank's digital currency (CBDC) is still largely conceptual and hopes to have significant development after 2021.

Blockchain Coinvestor

In 2020, India will reverse the current situation, and more support for digital currencies and digital assets. At the end of the year, India will issue its own digital currency and may lift some restrictions on BTC and other crypto assets in the South Asian subcontinent.

Forbes by Biser Dimitrov

One of the main goals China is pursuing is the digital currency plan, which will be realized in 2020, with the central bank launching the DCEP digital currency.

Zhang Xiang

The central bank's digital currency DCEP will open more trials, and third-party Internet payment systems such as Alipay and WeChat will have the opportunity to participate in DCEP issuance and help the internationalization of the RMB.

o5 Libra: It will be launched in 2020, but it has a large deviation from the white paper

Pantera Partner Paul Veradittakit

If Facebook's digital currency project Libra can be successfully released in 2020, it will become the most successful mainstream cryptocurrency case to date, and it will bring a new concept to people: cryptocurrency can be used to manage assets and conduct payment transactions.

Forbes by Biser Dimitrov

Libra is likely to be launched in a certain jurisdiction and supports only limited features. It will not be a means of payment as originally promised, but will continue to evolve.

Blockchain Capital

Facing China's competition, Libra will become an approved USD-backed stablecoin.

Zhang Xiang

In 2020, competition between China and the United States blockchain will intensify, and the United States will inevitably respond strongly to the launch of DCEP. Libra will be launched, but it is far from the roadmap and vision of its white paper.

o6 stablecoin: the overall market value has increased significantly, the exchange has become a promoter

Fundamental Labs

USDT is expected to leap into the top three in market value in 2020, and USDC may be a powerful successor. The issue of Libra or the central bank's DCEP or an unknown variable in the stablecoin market

Peter Johnson, Head of Jump Capital

Although there is greater uncertainty in regulatory policies, the market value of Tether will continue to grow in 2020, and at the same time, the market share of regulated U.S. dollar stablecoins supported by fiat currencies such as USDC, TUSD, and PAX will have large market shares Amplitude increase

Forbes by Biser Dimitrov

In 2020, we will see an increase in the application rate of stablecoins supported by fiat currencies and will be driven by exchange transactions.

Blockchain Capital

USDC will usher in a 300% growth and measures include trading volume, issuance, market cap, and trading volume.

Wave Financial

The market value of the stablecoin will increase by 300% to $ 15 billion. The main sources of growth are the launch of Libra, the launch of a new stable, the growth of landing applications, the multi-collateral Dai's acceptance of new assets as collateral, and the desire for increased income under negative interest rates.

o7 infrastructure: privacy, cross-chain breakthroughs, hosting becomes hot

Pantera Partner Paul Veradittakit

Cloud technology and "Software as a Service" (SaaS) technology will develop, and decentralized applications and Web 3.0 may usher in a whole new wave. Decentralized computing will also expand to more consumer-oriented use cases, such as privacy-centric browsers, games, social networks, information retrieval services, and more.

Outlier Ventures

Corda, a distributed ledger platform launched by R3 CEV, will surpass the market share of Hyperledger, Ethereum, and Quorum and become the market leader in enterprise blockchain networks.

Alibaba Dharma House

The blockchain BaaS (Blockchain as a Service) service will further reduce the threshold for enterprises to apply blockchain technology. Hardware chips such as end-to-end, cloud, and chain-solidified core algorithms designed for blockchain will also emerge. To realize the anchoring of physical world assets and on-chain assets, further expand the boundaries of the value Internet, and realize the interconnection of Wanchain. In the future, a large number of innovative blockchain application scenarios and multi-dimensional collaborations across industries and ecology will emerge. Large-scale production-level blockchain applications with a daily life of more than 10 million will enter the public.

Peter Johnson, Head of Jump Capital

Large third-party crypto asset custodians and cryptocurrency instant solutions will be a major development of the blockchain industry in 2020.

Blockchain Coinvestor

With the increase in the acceptance of digital currencies by central banks, those global leading banks will face pressure to build digital currency infrastructure, and banks will provide encrypted access and custody services.

NGC Ventures

Smart contract expansion, privacy computing, and decentralized hosting will be hot topics in 2020.

BlockVC

Blockchain expansion technology will enter the stage of landing verification, and privacy calculations will mainly depend on the progress of basic research, rather than the combination of the application and implementation of blockchain technology. A greater probability of completing the breakthrough first.

Specific capital

Privacy and cross-chain will become the hotspots of the market in 2020; interoperability and privacy computing will become industrial technology hotspots, but the biggest possible technological breakthrough may occur in interoperability.

Huobi China

In 2020, there will be obvious hot spots in the technology field. Of particular concern are the rapid deployment in the alliance, privacy technologies (such as Bitcoin Schnorr signatures, etc.), and the integration with the Internet of Things (IOT).

Former Goldman Sachs partner SpartanBlock

"Agreement war" will be a major topic in 2020. The reason is that most blockchain projects with one-tier solutions will be launched in the second quarter of 2020, including Boca, Near, Telegram, etc.

o8 Regulatory Trends: Paul Veradittakit, Partner, Pantera

The trend of regulatory obstacles will continue, and problems such as the adoption of zero-knowledge proof technology, concerns about data privacy issues (such as the Facebook digital currency project "Libra"), and how to define tokens, currencies, and securities and commodities will continue Explore.

Outlier Ventures

Three cryptocurrency trading platforms are officially licensed in China and operate under restricted conditions.

Forbes by Biser Dimitrov

Wyoming is gradually explaining the difference between virtual currency and digital securities by dividing digital assets into three different categories.This move has laid the foundation for a digital asset and digital bank-friendly regulatory system, and more regulation The agency will follow Wyoming.

BlockVC

The trend that blockchain continues to enter the mainstream society is irreversible. The phenomenon of "coin chain separation" will continue, blockchain technology will be vigorously promoted, and crypto assets will undergo more tortuous compliance processes.

Blockchain Capital

Privacy coins will be taken offline from mainstream trading platforms.

o9 ETF: US will not pass Bitcoin ETF

Blockchain Coinvestor

The United States will not approve ETFs traded with BTC, Ethereum or other crypto assets in 2020, and the SEC's approval of ETF-related issues will not be completely resolved in 2020.

Messari

By the end of 2020, it seems that almost all countries except the United States will have a Bitcoin ETF / ETP.

Forbes by Biser Dimitrov

The US Securities and Exchange Commission will still not approve any ETF product on the grounds that the market is not sufficiently regulated and may be subject to price manipulation. The newly-appointed Chairman of the Investor Protection, Entrepreneurship and Capital Markets Subcommittee, Brad Sherman, has no knowledge of the cryptocurrency industry.

10 Chain Tour: May Rise in 2020

Pantera Partner Paul Veradittakit

As more and more game developers and players begin to explore blockchain technology, blockchain games may rise in 2020.

Outlier Ventures

In 2020, the game industry will become a field of blockchain technology and application breakthroughs. Valve (V agency) or Epic gaming platform will launch blockchain-based game services.

11 Capital Operation: Returning to the Era of Equity, M & A integration becomes a trend

Fundamental Labs

In 2020, more Internet giants will enter this market. At the same time, the exchange, as the largest buyer in the current market, will continue to maintain its market competitiveness through the acquisition of technology, team talents and race tracks. This trend will continue.

Outlier Ventures

The market size of investors among active network participants has become smaller. Before the mainnet goes live, 90% of western cryptocurrency projects will return to financing methods based on selling equity.

In 2020, Europe will begin to occupy the United States as the center of Western blockchain projects, including financing and infrastructure construction. Europe's venture capital investment in blockchain companies will increase to 900 million US dollars, which is the highest level in history.

Kleiner Perkins investor Desai Weiss

In 2020, the trend of mergers and acquisitions and integration of resources by major companies in the industry in 2019 will be maintained.

Blockchain Capital

A crypto company will be acquired for more than $ 500 million.

12 Trading market: Derivatives continue to grow and exchanges are reshuffled

Fundamental Labs

The future of the futures-dominated crypto market will become more and more obvious. It is expected that the derivative trading volume in 2020 will continue to grow, or it can reach 20 times the spot trading volume.

Peter Johnson, Head of Jump Capital

The trading volume of the compliant cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BAKKT regulated by the United States will maintain a strong growth, but the center of derivatives trading will still surround exchanges that can accept users worldwide such as BITMEX. In 2020, the total amount of the Bitcoin derivative market will increase, and the trading of competing currencies will shrink.

Blockchain Capital

The increase in demand for Bitcoin will drive transaction fees in excess of $ 100, further expanding the scale of transactions.

Zhang Xiang

The change of digital currency exchanges is about to happen. Very few head transactions have all opportunities to be compliant, and more exchanges have been shuffled due to non-compliance.

Outlier Ventures

In 2020, the "Air Project" will be cleaned up, and the new ecology will all focus on the project's market drivers and landing applications, not just press release partnerships, beta releases and financing rounds. At the same time, more than 50% of the listed tokens will be removed.

Xu Kun, Vice President of Strategy, OKEx

In 2020, the scale of global digital asset contract transactions will increase by more than 200%. At the same time, the number of trading platform survival will also decrease sharply.

13 Industrial applications: blossoming flowers, To G alliance chain popular

Forbes by Biser Dimitrov

The Lightning Network is a two-layer implementation on top of the Bitcoin network, which can provide instant Bitcoin transactions and payments. In 2020, we will see the number of applications, nodes and channels created on the layer 2 network increase.

Blockchain Capital

According to the definition of network value, no Layer 1 protocol, which will be launched in 2020, can enter the top 10.

Oke Group

Compliance and implementation will become the main theme of the development of the blockchain industry in 2020. In the future, To G's alliance chain project will be popular, because the current state-level support for blockchain technology, especially the alliance chain technology.

Xu Kun, Vice President of Strategy, OKEx

In 2020, the blockchain technology standardization process will continue to accelerate, and the availability of public chain technology will achieve a key breakthrough at the end of the year.

Outlier Ventures

There will be an oversupply of smart contract platforms in 2020. By the end of the year, there will be no new smart contract platform with more than 400 applications. In addition, Telegram has about 200 million monthly users. By the end of 2020, Telegram will be the most active monthly blockchain network.

WTO World Trade Organization

The commercial value that blockchain technology can generate will appear in three stages of development between 2018 and 2030, of which around 2020, its commercial value will exceed $ 3 trillion.

Specific capital

On the commercial launch of the blockchain, there will be a bloom of flowers in 2020, and a large number of companies will flood in, but technological bottlenecks, unclear regulatory policies, and insufficient integration with the real industry will remain obstacles to development.

This article quotes some translations from the following media: Crypto Valley, Mars Finance, Block Rhythm, Golden Finance, Supernode Finance, Wildflower said.