Unexpectedly, after bitcoin was suppressed for a period of time, a US-Iraq conflict directly ignited the first fire of halving the market in 2020.
Affected by the US-Iran conflict, international crude oil and gold futures rose sharply. Bitcoin also rebounded from around $ 6,800 on January 3, hitting a maximum of $ 8,000, and in the near end of the year was generally not optimistic, it has fought a beautiful turnaround.
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Regarding the reasons for this round of Bitcoin's soaring, there are also market analysis that, apart from the point in time, there is not enough evidence to show that there is a direct correlation between the two, but investors still directed the results to Bitcoin's hedging properties .
In 2020, under the background of geopolitical crisis, uncertainty of the global economy, and global currency "big water release", "hedging" may become the main theme of halving the bull market. Bitcoin's hedging asset properties may also be as gold Become a strong consensus.
Cyprus crisis rectifies Bitcoin's name
Bitcoin has been in development for more than 10 years, but controversy continues to this day. At the beginning, bitcoin was labeled with Ponzi scheme, bubble and other labels. Numerous times were declared dead, drawing official vigilance from all countries, but various cracks did not shake the foundation of bitcoin. Bitcoin proved itself in 10 years.
Decentralized operation and peer-to-peer transactions are not controlled by any third party. It has become the biggest feature of Bitcoin. This idealistic system was initially sought after by some liberals, but it was just that there were too few user groups and Without making any big waves, Bitcoin needs to prove itself.
It was at this time that an economic crisis was quietly gestating. In 2012, Greek government bond management defaulted, and Cyprus, which holds 30% of Greek government bonds, tried to solve the debt problem by freezing people's deposits.
This quickly caused panic among the local population and middle class, as well as questioning the banking system. A small number of people have discovered bitcoin whose price is in the rising cycle and are beginning to enter this market as a hedge.
For a while, the people of Cyprus began to buy bitcoin, and from March to April 2013, the price rose from $ 40 to $ 266 in just one month.
Since then, Bitcoin has officially entered the vision of the general public, and the "hedging" attribute has also been formally associated with Bitcoin, and has been lingering ever since.
Except for an idealistic and extremely strong definition of virtual currency, safe-haven assets and digital gold have become a person's perception of bitcoin, but they have only left a trace and have not been branded. More opportunities are still needed. prove.
Will the crisis return in 2020?
At present, there is a rumor that a new round of economic crisis may occur.
In 2019, the performance of almost all asset classes in global stocks, bonds, gold, etc. was strong. 10-year U.S. Treasuries have been hovering at 2%, and the S & P 500 and Dow Jones Indexes have repeatedly hit record highs.
However, in fact, the global economic development is sluggish, and we have not seen the growth points that spur economic development. The two seem to be so inconsistent.
As of the end of last month, in the stock market, stock markets outside the United States were still lower than they were on January 26, 2018. It can be said that only the US stock market is "booming."
In addition, the data shows that the overall national debt of the United States exceeds 50 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 2.5 times the GDP of 2018, and the scale of debt growth is very large. For US debt alone, it has increased by 1.33 trillion US dollars in one year. Such a huge debt scale is like a "time bomb" hanging on the head of the global economy, which is disturbing.
The “Debt King” of the United States, Gundrak previously stated, “Looking forward to 2020, I think that the probability of a U.S. recession is 40%. The huge deficit of the United States, the historical laws of stock prices, economic basic data and the yield curve warning will be the main causes of the recession. the reason."
Buffett's performance also seems to confirm that there may be a large bubble in the current US stock market.
On January 1st, Beijing time, Buffett, the god of stocks, rejected the opportunity to acquire Tiffany, an American jeweler who had previously appreciated it, and ended the four-year expansion of his Berkshire-Hathaway enterprise group without making a major acquisition.
Berkshire's record $ 128 billion in cash reserves has yet to be hit. "Companies with good long-term prospects are currently sky-high," Buffett wrote in a recent letter to shareholders.
All kinds of speeches and behaviors have a high probability to prove that there is a problem in the current U.S. economy, and the relationship between the U.S. economy and the global economy is a one-on-one relationship. The emergence of this kind of economic uncertainty has led to a surge in investor risk aversion. .
In this environment, Bitcoin's hedging properties may be further confirmed and strengthened again.
Bitcoin: a safe haven for the future
Because of Bitcoin's natural anti-censorship characteristics, Bitcoin is not popular in countries with strong sovereign currency markets, and may even be resisted by traditional investment markets.
But relatively speaking, for countries where sovereign currencies lack international competitiveness, Bitcoin is a good liquid asset. Even in some regions, which are hard currencies, such as Venezuela, Argentina and other countries, the instability of sovereign currencies makes Bitcoin more valuable.
Iran has also been interested in developing cryptocurrencies in recent years, seeing it as a new tool to circumvent US financial sanctions, and the demand for Bitcoin or the escalation of the US-Iraq conflict has rapidly expanded.
In December 2019, Iranian President Rouhani called: "We want to use our own cryptocurrency to fight against the dollar and the US financial empire."
In the new era, Bitcoin undoubtedly has better flexibility than gold, is easier to divide and transfer, and even surpasses gold in these attributes, and its potential is expected.
However, it is not here to encourage everyone to go to All in Bitcoin without a brain. After all, from the current point of view, Bitcoin is just beginning to have a safe-haven nature, and it is very susceptible to market manipulation and it will rise and fall. As a mature financial asset, Bitcoin still has a long way to go.
There is a word spreading about the risk-averse attribute of Bitcoin-"Long bitcoin, short the world". What I want to say here is that we can't change the world, but we don't want to be affected by the world, especially in the context of this geopolitical crisis, trade war, and quantitative easing.
We don't want to be the victims of all kinds of events. We only want our assets to be completely and freely controlled by ourselves. This is not only the vision of Satoshi Nakamoto when he founded Bitcoin, but also the vision of everyone.