Always pay attention to the little red dot in the circle of friends, and strive to be a mad fan; when you glance at the mobile phone screen every two minutes, you are afraid of falling a few messages; repeatedly refresh the Weibo Twitter page and walk on the front line of eating melon. .
And out of all this, have you ever thought about what attracted us to constantly brush the screen and not want to miss every hot spot?
In recent years, a word has been used to describe this behavior- FOMO , Fear of Missing Out.
- Bitcoin fell below $5,000, and the final surrender of prices began?
- Schnorr+Taproot soft fork, an invincible proposal with expansion and privacy?
- Secret: Three key factors driving Bitcoin's continued rise in the next five years
- Data Direction 丨 BTC price trend from the fundamentals, market, sentiment and technology
- Half a year in the year, soaring! Will the history of Bitcoin's 7-year history reappear?
- Bitfinex's "official document" confirmation program raises up to $1 billion in IEO for its token LEO
What is FOMO?
This "FOMO" is a non-blockchain game "FOMO" of FOMO3D. It refers to the anxiety and annoyance caused by the fear of missing out on upcoming events (such as activities and gossip information, etc.).
This FOMO sentiment has been mentioned the most in the currency circle. In this circle, it is often said that "quilt cover" is not terrible, and "walking empty" is terrible. The vast majority of these words are "risk appetites", of course, there is also FOMO emotions in it.
This sentiment often occurs when the market rises, and investors start to become greedy and worry about missing good investment opportunities . According to the article by Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, based on the Elliott Wave theory, the driving force behind speculative market price fluctuations is investor expectations for future prices. Emotions affect the market, greed drives prices up, and fear drives prices down . In other words, this FOMO sentiment will in turn push the market back up further , the sentiment will reach its peak, and the investment bubble will be generated.
Especially in the fourth quarter of 2017 after the second bitcoin halving, the media began to expose the word "blockchain" frequently. The news was scrolling with the information of "bitcoin skyrocketing", and the Internet was full of similar "if You bought Bitcoin before 2017, your investment yield will exceed XXX%, and you will become rich ”news, the hype atmosphere reached a climax.
BTC FOMO calculator on the internet Source: bitcoinfomo.club
Many people suddenly discovered that this game originally belonged to programmers has already entered the public eye, and people began to search for the price trend of Bitcoin with curiosity. The "J" -shaped rising curve suddenly left people behind. Although they do n’t quite understand “what is a blockchain”, it does n’t prevent them from developing the anxiety of “do n’t come when the time is right”. Some people have n’t responded yet, and some people have already entered across their wallets. field.
There are not a few people with this kind of thought. According to Google search data, in November 2017, the popularity of Bitcoin has been maintained above 90, and once approached the historical peak of 100. At the same time, according to data on the digital currency trading platform Coinbase, the number of registered accounts on the platform reached 13.3 million, a surge of 8.4 million year-on-year. Driven by FOMO sentiment, a huge bull market arrived, followed by a huge bubble.
So we all know the later stories.
After that, as the market was quiet, FOMO sentiment faded out of our field of vision for a time, and the word was halted again this year with the gradual approach of the halving date of Bitcoin this year .
Halving the market is imminent, what role does FOMO emotion play?
If you follow the previous two halving effects, the bull market will open after the halving occurs, which may take as long as one year to one and a half years or even longer . Some analysts believe that this is because after Bitcoin is halved, the demand and supply relationship needs to be rebalanced through price increases under the condition of constant demand or even rising demand; at the same time , FOMO sentiment has served as a bull market catalyst here. With the increase of rising potential energy, fueled by various publicity, bitcoin has attracted more attention from newcomers or institutions, causing prices to be further pushed up .
Image credit: Bitcoin waves
It is doubtful whether there is an inevitable correlation between the so-called Bitcoin market and halving, but this is undoubtedly a huge positive signal to stimulate the FOMO sentiment.
The next halving of the market is still a major event of concern for all digital currency investors.
According to TokenDaily, the Winklevoss brothers, who are Gemini's bitcoin exchanges, have made predictions that the bull market will return. In response, Johnny Dilley, a partner at Mempool, responded that after Bitcoin halving occurred, FOMO sentiment would arise.
Winklevoss brothers and Mempool partner Johnny Dilley on Bitcoin halving
Crypto analyst Michael also made a technical analysis of this . In his opinion, Bitcoin has fluctuated by 30-40%, which is similar to the performance before the first two halvings. This is a re-accumulation of the market. The process is also a manifestation of the beginning of FOMO sentiment-investors try to adjust their positions before the expected price rise to ensure that they will not miss when the market comes .
Crypto analyst Michael tweets
This FOMO sentiment has also been confirmed in the mining market. From June last year to the present, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network has increased by 80%. Behind the fast-growing computing power data is the overweight of mining machines. Theoretically, after Bitcoin is halved, the miner's profit under the same computing power can only get half of the previous one, which will make Bitcoin miners face unprecedented pressure. In this case, the computing power is still rising. This also shows the confidence of miners in the market price. Wall Street analyst Max Keiser has tweeted that rising computing power can be seen as a leading signal of Bitcoin price.
Image credit: Max Keiser Tweet
Because although computing power is not closely related to price, the surge in computing power is the surge in mining costs and no one has to do business at a loss, so this is the performance of miners betting on subsequent prices. In other words, bitcoin counts The surge in power implies the expectation of miners for rising prices.
At the same time, we use the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to quantify FOMO sentiment. We can also find that from September 2019 to the end of the year, investors are in the "panic" expectation. In the near term, although it is far from ignited Investors' euphoria, but investor sentiment gradually recovered, and optimism on the market began to show .
The panic and greed index ranges from 0 to 100. The larger the index, the higher the market price, the investors become greedy, and the stronger the FOMO mood. The thicker. 0 means extreme panic, and 100 means extreme greed. Data source: alternative.me
We are not sure whether this halving market brings ecstasy or disappointment, but it is certain that this "fear of missing" mood has begun to emerge, whether it is the "half market theory" that has begun to appear in the media "The positive predictions of analysts or the overweight of miners have confirmed this to us.