At 7:42 am on January 15th, the Bitcoin mining difficulty was raised to 14.78T, and the blessing rose to 7.08%, once again setting a record high. Based on this inference, Bitcoin's entire network computing power is about 105.76E (data source BTC.com).
If calculated on a 1-month cycle, the hashrate of Bitcoin has increased by about 13E in the past month. This means that although the price of Bitcoin fluctuated sideways for about two months at around $ 7,000, at the level of miners, at least they continued to invest in computing power to prove that they are still optimistic about halving expectations.
- Wu Jihan's latest speech: Analysis of the market, space and time factors affecting the marketability of Bitcoin
- Junk trading? VeriBlock makes bitcoin average block capacity exceed 3MB
- Xiao Lei: Blockchain is "nuclear energy", bitcoin is "atomic bomb", who is the opponent?
- Developers propose a bitcoin test network alternative, Signet or solve many problems with the current version
- Bitcoin is a must for the 2020 US election.
- QKL123 market analysis | BCH, BSV halved before BTC, how do miners react? (0408)
In the cryptocurrency market, there may be nothing that cannot be solved by one big line, if there are, then two.
On January 14, at a time when the market was generally worried about halving expectations, the currency expected to halve in 2020 skyrocketed across the board. As of the evening at 23 o'clock on the day, BTC rose 7.21%, BSV rose 44.5%, and BCH rose Blessing is 24.43%, DASH is blessing 35.19%, ETC is blessing 24.15%, and ZEC is blessing 21.43%.
It was this night that the call of "the bull market is coming" reappeared in the cryptocurrency investment circle.
Bitcoin is less than $ 15,000, halving will "blood into a river"?
The hashrate has skyrocketed. If we compare January 14, 2020 with January 14, 2019, and the same amount of hash power, today's miners get only 2/5 of the Bitcoin output.
It is expected that in May of this year, Bitcoin will be halved as scheduled (with only about 4 months left), at which time Bitcoin production will be reduced from 12.5 to 6.25.
Soaring computing power combined with halving bitcoin is this doomed to be an unprecedented big mining disaster?
Earlier, a microblog from Wintercoin from Weibo Da V Winter Soldier received special attention. He said that at present, the entire mining circle is betting heavily on halving the market, that is, betting, the price of bitcoin will skyrocket around the halving.
According to his calculations, Bitcoin is currently increasing by 10E + per month, and by half, the entire network's computing power can reach 140E-150E. You know, on December 15, 2018, the price of Bitcoin was about 3,155 US dollars, the output was 12.5, and the computing power was 42E. At that time, the miners surrendered, and the horror atmosphere of selling miners by the pound permeated the entire industry.
Based on this calculation, after halving, as long as the price of bitcoin is below $ 20,000, the atmosphere of terror may appear again. Because once it is below $ 20,000, the miner's earnings will be equivalent to December 2018. However, today the price of Bitcoin is only $ 8,700.
There is a problem here. The computing power does not necessarily increase as planned. In fact, the growth of Bitcoin computing power has slowed down since the fourth quarter of 2019. So, let's assume that the computing power will stay at 100E. Based on this calculation, as long as the price of bitcoin is less than $ 15,000, miners will also enter the painful period of December 2018.
Earlier, Yu Yang of the Mining Association said in an interview with Babbitt that because most miners do n’t have too many strategies, mining disasters will definitely happen, and it is terrible, but everyone is betting that it will not happen to themselves.
Whose head will it happen to? Obviously, miners with strong capital strength, low electricity costs, mining machines with high computing power and low power consumption, and good at using flexible financial means such as hedging to lock in profits will win. It is very likely that the new generation of God Machine S9 will exit the stage of history.
In the guest room of the 14th Japanese Yen, "Can you still enter the mine?" In the online live broadcast, Wang Li, the co-founder of PayPal Finance, said that after halving, most of the mining opportunities with power consumption of 80-100w / T will be eliminated, and replaced by a new group of institutionalized miners and cloud computing power. platform. The so-called 80-100w / T refers to the mining machine introduced in 16-18, such as the ant S9. At present, the most powerful miners are in the range of 45-60w / T.
Previously, Zhimin University had a prediction that the mining machine is essentially a financial product. As a free market for mining, the game between participants will effectively regulate the market:
1. The mining revenue has dropped, the cycle has become very long, the demand of miners has weakened, and the computing power has stopped rising; 2. The mining machine has completed a wave of "metabolism", high-performance new mining machines have entered the market, and low-performance mining opportunities have gradually Eliminated; 3. Shipments of mining machine manufacturers far exceed demand, and a financial crisis may occur; 4. The currency price continues to fall, and mining machines, especially old mining opportunities, flow from high-cost miners to low-cost miners, and complete the reshuffle; 5. Market Get out of the downturn and start a bull market.
BSV price rose 436% a month, computing power soared 1 times
We know that BTC, BCH, and BSV are all SHA256 algorithms. The same mining machine can mine these three cryptocurrencies. According to the principle of maximum profit, which currency is the most profitable, the computing power will flow into which Currency. Computing power is not loyal.
According to QKL123 data, as of January 14, the average computing power of BTC is about 103E, the average computing power of BCH is about 3.21E, and the BSV is 2.43E. Interestingly, since December 19, 2019, the BSV price has increased from US $ 83 to US $ 445 (in the early morning of the 14th), an increase of 436%. In the case that the computing power of BTC and BCH has not changed much, the computing power of BSV has soared twice.
Although the computing power of BCH and BSV is a fraction of BTC, and BSV is lower than BCH. However, at present, the total market value of BSV has surpassed BCH, ranking fourth. Then, it may be only a matter of time before the BSV computing power exceeds the BCH.
This shows another problem. After the halving arrives, assuming that the price of BTC has not risen to the sky, then some BTC computing power will inevitably be withdrawn. Where does the withdrawal of these computing power go? Naturally BCH and BSV.
It is foreseeable that there will be a battle for computing power between BCH, BSV and BTC. In theory, BSV and BCH are extremely insecure, and BTC can attack them with a fraction of a hashrate. This halving is very likely a window of opportunity for the two weak to compete for computing power, and price is the only weapon in this battle. For BCH and BSV to succeed, their prosperity will exceed BTC. Whoever can surpass anyone between BCH and BSV must also use price to speak.
It is expected that the halving time of BCH and BSV will be before BTC. Then, before BTC is halved, BCH and BSV will take the lead in staged the battle of price and computing power.
▲ halving currency surge
Eight major halving currencies are coming in 2020
In 2020, there are eight major currencies expected to be halved, which are familiar BTC, BCH, BSV, and like ETC, DASH, ZEC, XZC, and BEAM. Except for BTC, other currencies are halved for the first time.
▲ Picture from Planet Daily
Everyone's most anticipated halving is naturally Bitcoin. According to the design, Bitcoin will experience a halving of mining rewards every 4 years. On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin was halved for the first time, and the reward was reduced from 50 to 25. On July 10, 2016, Bitcoin was halved for the second time, and the reward was reduced from 25 Bitcoins to 12.5 Bitcoins. The latest halving is expected to occur on May 13, 2020.
From historical data, each halving is accompanied by price increases. For example, the price before the first halving was $ 2.55, and the year after the halving was $ 1,037. Within a year of the second halving, the price rose from $ 268 to $ 2525, a nearly 10-fold increase. Even the highest point in 2017 was $ 20074.
Because of this, the public has great enthusiasm for halving Bitcoin.
Both BCH and BSV are BTC's fork coins, and their operating mechanism is similar to Bitcoin, so it will also be halved, but the two will be ahead of Bitcoin in time.
ETC is a fork of Ethereum's ETH. It is not really halved. It will reduce production by 20% every 5 million blocks. The last time it was reduced was December 2017. The total amount of DASH issued was 18.9 million, which is a fixed annual reduction of 7.14%.
Big Zero ZEC has similar attributes to Bitcoin, with a total of 21 million pieces. The mining reward after halving is also 6.25 ZEC, which is more anonymous than Bitcoin.
The halving happens to the POW currency, which means that the number of mining rewards is reduced and the mining cost is greatly increased, so theoretically it will drive up the price. Judging by the halving of bitcoin in the past, this seems to be the case. However, the cost of mining cannot determine the price, and there is more evidence that halving does not necessarily lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin. We will not discuss it here.