Bitcoin is a "blooded rose" born after the global financial collapse. When bitcoin is in high demand and suddenly surges, it often means that there is a problem in the local economy. People except Bitcoin There is no choice.
Although this is not good, in view of Bitcoin's special asset positioning and extremely exaggerated price fluctuations, it is destined to belong only to risk appetites and “forced” risk appetites.
When people become “forced” risk appetites, all their choices are high-risk, compared to Bitcoin, which is a good “refuge tool”.
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And when we talk about the future, we will think that the future value of bitcoin is comparable to gold, shoulders the dollar, and the stock market. So why do people use bitcoin without the dollar? Because we believe that one day people will use Bitcoin voluntarily or “forced”.
And we believe that the "large-scale bitcoin acceptance process" has its own name in the traditional financial world – the financial crisis.
"This is a government robbery against us. This is the worst time of my life. It reminds me of Turkey's invasion of Cyprus in 1974." – Cyprus parade masses, 2013.
In fact, because of the typical ones such as Zimbabwe, Cyprus and India. And their crisis has also brought bitcoin to the "flower of crisis" again and again.
The earliest was Cyprus. In 2013, the President of Cyprus announced that the Cyprus government would impose a deposit tax on local bank depositors, up to 9.9%. In other words, you have a bank of one million, not only have no interest, but also charge you 100,000.
When the bank’s “stealing” became “bamboo”, people finally realized that the bank’s unreliability, the Cypriot people flocked to the streets, and the situation was out of control.
At the time of the Cyprus incident, the popularity of Bitcoin was far less than it is now, and the transaction volume could not be compared with the present. People rushed to buy, and Bitcoin skyrocketed several times in a few days.
If the Cyprus incident is relatively long, India’s banknotes in 2016 should be remembered. More exaggerated than Cyprus’ tax collection, India directly declared banknotes to be invalid. This incident has hurt the Indian people, but it has brought a huge increase to Bitcoin, directly making the price of Bitcoin a new high in three years.
In the media reports at the time, Bitcoin was said to be the biggest winner of this event:
If you want to say how to quickly determine whether a person is a real Bitcoin player, you only need to mention a country name "Zimbabwe". If you smile at each other, you are all good.
The timing of the Zimbabwe incident happened to coincide with the bitcoin bull market, so even though it was only an event in a small African country, it became a good help to help Bitcoin break through the record high.
The crisis in these countries is not really a global financial crisis like the 2008 Great Defeat, but in the eyes of the leopard, some small crises can bring a new high in Bitcoin. If it is a big crisis?
"The reasons for the financial crisis are very simple – both sides are greedy, the greed of investors and the greed of bankers. Greed on Wall Street is what it should be – almost an obligation." – "Big Air"
In fact, not only is Wall Street greedy, everyone is greedy, and when the top is too greedy, people will fall into a quagmire.
Such as the United States. (For example, the United States is because the United States is more typical, and remember that the United States is already the best situation, and the meeting in other countries is even worse)
1. The US economy has a problem: it has been a long time, too much.
If you are interested, you can check out the increasingly high trade deficit in the United States every year. Where did the money go?
2. Debt, debt, or debt.
The debt is high and growing, and the world is the same. Snowball is the most vivid description of the current debt problem.
3. This huge black hole in the global monetary system cannot be solved by anyone. There is no doubt that we live in a highly unstable international trade and monetary system.
There has always been a popular rumor that “there will be a financial crisis every decade”, because the US trade deficit and the rise and fall of national debt will reach a critical point at the end of a stage, and the formation of the butterfly effect will lead to the financial system. And eventually caused a crisis.
The wrong practice in the United States has been regarded as a normal economic law.
Because we have no way.
"The whole world is in a false carnival, and a few outsiders and geeks are uniquely eye-catching."
– "Big Short"
Bitcoin, the fascinating "Crisis of the Crisis", has not really bloomed in the past ten years since its birth, because it has never seen a real financial crisis. The bitcoin value of millions of dollars and millions of dollars that all holders are waiting for must have a premise that Bitcoin has become a global monetary asset.
And our hearts are also very clear. If the era of normal economic development, world peace, and singing and dancing can continue, it is not so fast for Bitcoin to be accepted by people.
Unfortunately, it is not unfortunate that the financial model of the capital era will always kill itself once in a while. Just as there will be war in the human world, the financial crisis will surely come. This does not blame anyone, blame people themselves.
And when we hold Bitcoin and hope that its price reaches a very high level, it is clear that if there is a day when Bitcoin reaches a very high price, it must mean that there is one or many in the world. The original economic model collapsed. Perhaps a country with a large influence has a currency crisis. Perhaps a country’s debt default has started. Perhaps it’s just a few blacks flying in New York, London, and Zurich. The appearance of the black swan to the extreme.
Who knows, we know that there will be one day, and we don’t know anything else.
We don't want us to wait until that day, but if there is such a day, we selfishly hope that we can become the people of the Noah's Ark.
"You are betting that the US economy will collapse in the future, which means that if the gambling is right, people will be homeless."
"Either we are right, or we are wrong."
—- "Big Short"
Author: William Chen