A few days ago when wechat WeChat, I was suddenly attracted by a blockchain AMA event-attending this event was a well-known currency circle big man a few years ago. In my memory, this kind of Grassroots in the currency circle have disappeared for a long time on the stage of the blockchain industry. The reason for this situation is not entirely due to the recent tightening of industry policies. The more important point is: blockchain-this once flooded With countless controversial and confused industries, the operating logic of the industry has changed fundamentally. Many people have already felt this, but what they do n’t know is that the logic change in the blockchain industry is still It is continuing, and people may experience a long period of trial and error before the real product is launched.
I. The burst of the virtual currency bubble: the weakening of the C-side color of the blockchain industry
In the blockchain industry, there has always been a debate: Does this industry still need to follow the old path of Internet industry traffic? In the eyes of those who agree, the blockchain industry needs to follow the traffic route and focus on the C-end market. Exchanges and dAPPs are typical examples. In the eyes of those who disagree, blockchain should follow a new route that is different from Internet thinking, but what the route is is generally not clear to the authors. Comparing the arguments between the two, although the former has more specific product support, from the perspective of subsequent factual development and logical rationality, the former formulation does not seem to be closer to the truth-it has a reality with Internet thinking The products and many real users are different. Whether it is an exchange or dAPP, it cannot be regarded as a blockchain product that can generate actual social benefits: Needless to say, exchanges naturally need to buy a hot and cold wallet to store virtual currencies. In addition, there are not many blockchain technology elements, and even the solutions are a set of former Internet financial platforms (this is why many mutual funds have entered the exchange industry in the past two years). As for dAPP, although it seems It seems to be a benchmark with a centralized APP, but looking at the various "chain games" in the market, it is not difficult to find that they are essentially replicas of DEX. And the main reason for many people to play "Chain Tour" is not because it is fun and can be pleasant to the body and mind. It is more about hoping to "wool wool" from it, that is, to increase the amount of coins. In other words, the cores of the above two products are not closely related to the blockchain, and their main products are more cryptocurrencies. It's just that the former takes the route of price and the latter takes the route of the number of tokens.
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From this point of view, the so-called "C-end route" of the blockchain industry is actually more like the "C-end route" of virtual currencies and even financial products. Individual investors are not concerned about the blockchain technology itself, but whether the development of this technology can add value to their assets through cryptocurrencies. For a simple example, about two years ago, a technical upgrade of EOS had the opportunity to be on the hot search of social media. However, the majority of ordinary Internet users do n’t actually know the technical details of them. They are concerned about technical changes. Mainly because of the fear that the price of the token in his hand will be affected. Just as many people have recently paid attention to whether Microsoft will continue to support win7. Today, two years later, Ethereum, known as the first public chain, is also facing a crossroads in technological upgrades. However, apart from individual B-side developers, the majority of C-side individuals have lost interest in this news. , Because the experience of the past two years tells them that the market is numb to this kind of news, and other cottage projects are more conceivable, that is, once the cryptocurrency and its derivative industries (such as trading platforms) The influence of factors and decline, the C-terminal attributes of this industry will be difficult to continue.
But the question is: Why would it be difficult for ordinary individuals to get interested in the blockchain without a cryptocurrency? This is mainly related to the characteristics of the blockchain technology. Generally speaking, the positive effects of digital technology on the application side can be divided into two types: one is that it can directly give users certain rights, such as intelligent recommendation of big data, speech-to-text by artificial intelligence, etc .; It is to cut some costs for users, such as cloud computing, which can reduce storage and migration costs. Among them, the technology that empowers people is more concerned by ordinary people than the technology that can reduce the cost (unless this technology compresses the cost, such as the iteration of 4G and 5g networks, etc.). For example, most Network users know about big data, artificial intelligence, and even nimble robots, but their interest and depth in cloud computing are often limited. Like the more popular cloud music application in recent years, although the form of cloud storage playlists is more popular, the factor that really makes it a popular application is the online review function with social core as its core. If there is no comment function and only the cloud song list, such products will definitely not become popular applications that are popular with the Internet users.
As a technology dedicated to creating a trusted environment, blockchain is a technology similar to cloud computing that is typically used to reduce the cost of trust (in fact, the emergence of the concept of BaaS has proven that between the two technologies Inextricably linked), this kind of commitment to "cost reduction" rather than "equity distribution" determines that blockchain is not a technology that can directly interest C-end users. It is no exaggeration to say that if there is no cryptocurrency as a front-end propaganda medium, this technology is likely to be circulated in the small technical circle like other difficult data technologies, and it will never enter the public's vision. And once the myth of the digital currency's richness disappears, even if the blockchain is really put into commercial use, the real concern for this cost-reducing technology is often more of an enterprise than an individual.
So, as we can see, as the digital currency market fell into depression due to various reasons, the first stage of the blockchain industry, which is the "C-side era", gradually faded and entered into what we are now. At this stage, it is the "B-side era" introduced next.
Second, the key to the development of industrial blockchain is not the enterprise, but the industry competent department that manages the enterprise
Strictly speaking, many currency institutions are not unaware of the arrival of the "B-side era" of the blockchain industry, and there are not a few of them in advance, but at present, the effect is generally general. The main reasons for this situation are: B The game on the end market is very different from the C-end market that people in the currency industry are familiar with-individuals at the C-end tend to be more impulsive, while companies at the B-end tend to be more cautious and rational. You must use a business logic that can be understood by others, and tell the other party: After adopting the blockchain technology, how much your revenue can increase, the cost can be reduced by a few percentages, and the profits can be increased by several percentage points. Customers Willing to pay for a solution. In the past few years, the industry's research in this area is generally not deep. In this way, even if the era of the industrial blockchain comes, it will be difficult for them to grasp the opportunities. More importantly: Although the blockchain technology itself is intended to reduce operating costs for enterprises, when the crisis of business trust mostly occurs between enterprises, now I want to use the blockchain technology to build between enterprises A blockchain trust platform is not something that a single enterprise can accomplish at all.
For example: When I was studying the energy blockchain in the early years, I often mentioned a scene with people-the development of distributed energy power stations requires the participation of a considerable number of stakeholders, such as environmental protection, legal affairs, auditing departments, etc. Participation has greatly increased the cost of power station development. This is a typical scenario where blockchain technology can be cut into. Through data on-chain + automatic review of smart contracts, blockchain can significantly reduce the cost of negotiations between parties in this process. However, the question is: While such a platform is good, who should invest in it? After the completion, what is the driving force for other enterprises to connect? Does the construction party have such an appeal to change the long-term habit of the enterprise? In fact, after a closer inspection, it is not difficult to find that those who have the ability to implement the blockchain evaluation program are actually only those companies that can have a fairly high flow in the industry and can respond to them, such as occupying most of China State Grid with grid share, and Tencent with nearly half of electronic payment channel share. Otherwise, few people are willing to leave the original information gathering place and change their usage habits in order to experience the so-called cutting-edge technology. In other words, although in the current business environment of the blockchain, enterprises should be mainly used as real users, but its initial leader is unlikely to be an enterprise. According to recent survey results, the B-end market is also Willing to know more about the blockchain, but less money to invest in solutions, after all, this is not something that a single company can accomplish. In this way, the blockchain industry has to Facing the third path of the development of the blockchain industry-2G.
It should be pointed out that 2G in this article is not a government department in the narrow sense, that is, government, but more refers to a government-like organization or even an enterprise, or a platform for the integration of government and enterprise. After all, in the context of simplified administration and decentralization, government agencies are now more likely to formulate game rules and frameworks, and rarely directly interfere with the operation of industries or even enterprises.
Why does it say that before the blockchain can really start 2B, it is inevitable that it needs to go through a 2G stage? In a nutshell: the current subjective initiative and objective conditions for enterprises to use blockchain technology are not strong, the cultivation of blockchain technology habits. It needs the guidance of various platforms that have traffic resources and are controlled by G institutions. After all, any technology must have an initial promotion period. Even if it is easy to use such as electronic payment, it would be difficult to enter people's lives without Internet giants vigorously burning money for activities in the spring and evening. And if you only rely on a single company, it is likely to be just a shave. The unused blockchain image projects made by major technology and financial companies in the past few years are typical cases.
And this is exactly the advantage of the current Chinese blockchain industry. In the case of the digital economy has become a hot spot, as long as the intermediary information platforms where traffic converges, they basically maintain close cooperation with the government (including some private Enterprises), that is to say, they all have a bit of "G-end" color, and it is much easier to cultivate the blockchain habit of enterprises that access the platform than other countries. The current government has great interest in blockchain technology. From this point of view, from the perspective of application scenarios, blockchain technology is likely to be guided by G-end institutions. The B-end market in China took the lead. However, if China's use of blockchain technology has a positive effect, it will inevitably serve as a benchmark, and then promote other countries to compete for imitation. Therefore, what is the future pattern of blockchain applications in the global scope, now it is actually not Good to say.
The development of the blockchain industry and market-oriented changes, what kind of impact will be unknown in the future, but one thing is certain: its related series of derivative industries will shrink-at least in the number of jobs created So so. After all, the number of enterprises must be much smaller than the number of individuals, and the number of industry authorities must be much smaller than those of enterprises. The same is true of the amount of funds and output value that these three parties can release. Now the entire currency circle is staring at the upcoming halving market.It is not an excessive hype and anxiety, because it is not an exaggeration to say that this is likely to be the C-side field of the blockchain industry (that is, people are familiar "Coin circle") the most logical one in the coming years. If it can take the market to take off, this circle may continue to flourish for a while. If not, the fate of the cryptocurrency market in the next few years is likely to be out of control.