At the beginning of the new year, the halving has become a major event close to us. Currently, Bitcoin has been halved twice. After 367 days of the first halving, the BTC's historical high (ATH) was broken and the market price surged 9260% to $ 1,175. 526 days after the second halving, the new ATH reached $ 19,891 and the BTC price increased by 2976%. Can the new round of halving bring big benefits again? What do you think of halving the line? On the afternoon of January 16, 2020, Cobo co-founder and CEO Shenyu and the early evangelist of the blockchain industry, and the blockchain application development expert @ 玛雅 cndx as a guest chain node AMA, launched a community halving market and mining challenges discuss.
Fake break? Self-rising fantasy?
Halving and quotes always appear at the same time, and users always have their own interesting hopes for these four words. Regarding "halving the market", there are 1,000 definitions for 1,000 people, and no consensus has yet been reached. The more objective definition is divided by time period, and has nothing to do with the trend of currency prices. That is, the previous halving market is: the market trend from November 2012 to November 2013 and from July 2016 to July 2017, and then from May 2020 to May 2021. In this way, there is no specific formula for the market trend in the specified period of time, and now whether it is a soaring theory or a flat theory, it is just a summary of what has happened after the halving event in the past.
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(As of press time, the rising trend of currency reduction this year)
Just as William talked about the US-Iraq incident and Bitcoin's hedging properties in the live broadcast of the chain node some time ago, we always try to summarize what is applied to future major events after the major event. In fact, There are often suspicions of over-analysis in the process. Therefore, as to whether the upcoming halving will bring the highlight halving market again as before, as Godfish pointed out:
I'm not good at predicting short-term trends, and I don't think any short-term market forecast can be used as investment advice. If you have to guess, in general, there may be a good round of temptations before halving, but generally it is a false breakthrough, or it brings a fantasy of self-rising rise to everyone. Then after halving, it may be silent for a period of time, and the high-ranking suitor will stop and leave the market. This probability will be greater. Unless there are some iconic inflection points before the halving. March is the tax season, and some new large-scale funds will generally not enter the market until the end of the tax season. So it's possible that there won't be a particularly large movement before halving. Of course, the above is not as investment advice.
Of course, even if the development randomness of halving the market is rationally recognized, in this era of everyone's prediction, users will still worry about whether the market trend will be manipulated? In response, Maya pointed out that the question is whether this is a positive-sum game or a zero-sum game:
The short period can be regarded as the zero sum, but for a long period of time, look at the trend chart of BTCie.com under the logarithmic coordinate since the birth of Bitcoin. This is undoubtedly a positive sum. That is to say, it is entirely possible for everyone to earn money in the early days. Looking back at the present several decades later, this is the early stage of Bitcoin. As for manipulation, the market value of competing coins is low, and may be manipulated by the market maker. However, unlike Bitcoin, there are only big players and giant whales in the bitcoin market. There are a lot of mistakes when considering Bitcoin with the bookmaker's mind.
(BTCie.com Bitcoin Chart)
As mentioned above, the market trend is predicted by everyone, but no one can accurately predict it. As an investor, how should you choose the node for asset realization? Combining his experience of selling Bitcoin on Taobao, Shenyu gave suggestions:
(Taobao sale) Don't mention it, it's all tears. As a long-term investor, when the price reaches your own psychological level, which is where you think you will not regret, you can realise this number of assets in batches.
However, whenever you have to keep some bottom positions, that is, no matter what price you rise to, even if it exceeds your psychological price, the position of this bottom position will not be sold to prevent some extreme market conditions. For example, in 2017, everyone generally thought that it was difficult to break through 18,000 yuan, so many people chose to quickly sell and get off the car at this price, and eventually lost the market.
Year of the mine disaster? Bitcoin has also been "dead" more than 300 times in media reports!
The most direct effect of halving is the mining circle, which seems to be an issue that must be talked about when halving. For miners, when the price of the currency is unknown, a reduction in production means an increase in mining costs. According to BTC.COM data, the current difficulty of bitcoin's entire network is 15.82T, and the computing power of the entire network is 105.82EH / s. If the price of bitcoin remains the status quo after reducing production, many miners will face losses. Some media predict that a large-scale "mine disaster" is about to erupt in May, which will be the "year of life and death" of the mining industry.
It should be noted that this year's halving happens at the same time as the replacement, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for the mining circle, and whether a mining disaster will really occur, Shenyu emphasized that it is necessary to pay attention to the following two factors:
1. Will the price increase sharply after halving? If the currency price does not increase significantly, the mining machine represented by S9 at 30-40E currently has to shut down, and the computing power of the entire network will drop significantly. The cycle becomes longer.
2. Will there be substantial negatives in electricity and feng shui? If both factors are negative, the halving may cause mining difficulties. Of course, we do n’t have to be too pessimistic about the “mine disaster”, but the media ’s hype can be treated as nothing happened after slaps. Just like so far, according to incomplete statistics, the media has declared a total of more than 300 Bitcoins dead Times. Therefore, we still need to take a rational view of the rumors of "mine disasters" and "years of life and death". In response, Maya stated:
Even in the worst case scenario: because the new currency is only halving the output, so the currency price does not rise and is close to the shutdown price without buffer, at most about half of the mining industry is eliminated-losing half of the entire network computing power, bit The interval between the block generation of the coin block is about 10 minutes to 20 minutes, which is equivalent to shrinking to 0.5MB, but coupled with the nearly double soft expansion effect of SW isolation verification, it is still about 1MB. Transactions on the main chain are basically normal. As long as the Bitcoin main chain is stable without problems, it will not cause a chain reaction and the entire mining industry will be supported by new coins. At most, the scale of the mining industry will be reduced by half, and it will not be a "year of life and death." If the currency price is slightly more optimistic, then the full hedging halved will affect the mining industry. If the currency price doubles, the mining industry will grow stronger.
If we must say that the "life and death gamble" brought by the halving must be specific to the miners, the halving on the miners, especially the individual miners, is specific and serious, and the benefits are directly reduced by half. If the currency price does not support the corresponding increase at this time, it may cause the miners that currently account for about 50% of the electricity cost to be unable to continue mining. At the same time, this time is exactly the time when the 16nm mining machine is upgraded to the 7 / 8nm mining machine, which has exacerbated the risk of the previous generation of mining machine.
However, it should be noted that although the mining block reward will be halved, the mining reward is composed of two parts, namely the native block reward and the transfer fee. Godfish said:
From the perspective of transfer fees, if the entire blockchain can bring rapid development, increase a large number of on-chain transactions, and then such on-chain fees increase, then for miners or mining pools, the impact of halving will be Get a big part of the relief. This is why the mining pool has been committed to promoting the blockchain market, finding more people to use, and finding more application scenarios.
All in all, the halving will promote the iterative update of the mining industry as a whole, and accelerate the rapid development of the entire Bitcoin field. The impact of coin production will become smaller and smaller, as mentioned by Shenyu. At this time, most of the miners' income comes from transaction fees rather than rewards for discovering blocks. At present, for miners, the most important thing is to control their own risks and reduce leverage. In addition, it is imperative to find more and better targets and dig more profits.
For a detailed review of this issue of AMA: https://www.chainnode.com/ama/404275
Onlookers chat and mine: https://www.chainnode.com/forum/39