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Everyone has never seriously considered whether Bitcoin will one day usher in a real crash and what it will look like. Naturally, the bulls holding the eternal bull market banner have never thought of it, and the bears who have no multi-thinking thinking and no brains have not thought about it carefully.
BlockBeats The purpose of writing this article is not simply to sing more or empty bitcoin, but to discuss an interesting and serious topic: What are the crises that bitcoin will inevitably encounter under the current bright development prospects? Since many financial forces are not optimistic about Bitcoin, why have they not been aggressively short? If one day the Soros are really on the field, what will they do?
Let's imagine a scenario that might appear after 4N years.
The price of Bitcoin is hovering at $ 50,000 at this time, and the market value of circulation has finally reached the threshold of $ 1 trillion.
The market's understanding of bitcoin has almost assimilated into digital gold and stored-value means. With the announcement of Bitcoin as an asset reserve by some small third-world countries, Musk's rocket has moved to the pipeline, and the propaganda slogans of bitcoin supporters have even become more fashionable Transparency-Bitcoin is the foreign exchange reserve of the new century and an interstellar currency of the 22nd century.
Those who used to sing bitcoin-whether they are investors in intellectual analysis or passers-by who slap their heads-have been ridiculed by every coin holder as "people who cannot understand the times."
What time? The era of western economic downturn requires asset hedging, the era of hyperinflation in some countries requires stored value, the era of geopolitical tension requires hedging, and the era of buying and making money.
As if everything had been concluded, there was no room for manoeuvre.
In the heyday, the crisis was pervading.
The miners are very happy. Everyone uses advanced machines and financial tools to leisurely calculate their daily and monthly income. They are skilled in using forward contracts for hedging. Some of them have also hoarded some bitcoin. Looking forward to the day when Bitcoin will cost $ 1 million each.
Investors are also happy, and no asset in the world has been able to grow so quickly and sustainably. During this period, Bitcoin's financial derivatives market also developed rapidly. Many speculators took advantage of the high leverage of futures and options and greedily enjoyed the thrill of volatility. No other large asset can bring such a large opportunity.
The happiest people are those who control the money upstream of the industry chain. Some of them rely on the short-term daily transactions of traders to kill millions of dollars each day, and some rely on the industry's growing borrowing needs to return. At this time, the bitcoin market is approaching maturity. Compared with mining and trading in 2020, more and more combined products have become the first choice for the general public.
The taste of money fascinates everyone, and no one cares that the industry's data is moving towards the abyss . After all, the bearish people are fools, at least they don't make money, do they?
At that time, it became normal for miners to borrow and mine and purchase mining machines in installments, and those who paid the full price were fools who would not use leverage.
At this time, the global bitcoin mining's comprehensive debt ratio has reached more than 70%, which means that a large number of miners are borrowing money to use leverage for mining, as long as the interest rate of the borrowing is less than the mining rate of return, this is a cost-effective business.
Soros is here, and the sniper with international hot money is here.
Soros first bought X billion US dollars in the spot market. Not only did Soros enter the market, but more Soros also entered the market. They are Soros's international hot money allies, all kinds of Such investment funds supported the long operation. At that time, Bitcoin coincided with the Nth halving of the hype and formed the most turbulent buying at the time of the hype. Blockchain investment institutions and the media shouted: The regular army Come on! Let's embrace the Bitcoin era!
After completing the position establishment on the spot side and the market sentiment further climaxed, Soros began to add weight to the long futures positions in Bitcoin in recent months.
After a Changyang, the bulls in the derivatives market roared like a mighty army, and the shorts in the market became less and less. It seemed that only the bulls could close their own positions.
Soros has a lot of books, so Soros has secretly ordered the assistant to do an operation-buy forward short-value put options.
At that time, option trading had become as popular and mature as the currency trading in 2020, and the level of liquidity had increased significantly. Soros's process of establishing a position seemed very easy.
At that time, no one thought that Bitcoin would fall below $ 20,000 again. After all, Bitcoin has been spiraling up. What's more, now that Bitcoin has risen to nearly 100,000 US dollars due to Soros's spot buying, the seller of the option is pleased to sell put options exercised at 20,000 US dollars, calculating how much premium will be available next year. Risk accounting.
They don't know that the buyer's counterparty of these ill-valued put options is Soros, and the options are the only way Soros kills. When you are staring at the abyss, the abyss is staring at you.
After Bitcoin officially broke through $ 100,000, Twitter boiled.
McCafee reiterated that the $ 500,000 prediction of the year was not a joke, but a true thought in his heart. Musk said that it is irrelevant whether Bitcoin is a safe word or not. What is important is that space travel will only support Bitcoin payments. A well-known trader, Xiao K, talked about his experience of becoming a bitcoin rich overnight in a trading forum. Miner B saw that the price of mining machines rose, and he had to increase leverage-continue to do it!
At this point, Soros was ready to shoot. He secretly arranged for his assistant to start shorting bitcoin's futures. As the market is in a strong bull trend, the first short orders were quickly assembled. Soros did not continue to short, but stopped to watch the developments.
Soros knows that it is not enough to short-live the short sterling and baht.
At that time, 80% of the Bitcoin mining machine had been transferred to country M, and the computing power of country M was mostly concentrated in state N. Soros contacted local officials in State N, expounded his overvaluation of Bitcoin overheating, the leverage of mining industry was deformed, and he wanted to short Bitcoin, and stated that he had assembled a well-known international hot money P this time, strategically. Almost foolproof. If the other party can "help on the news", Soros is willing to give 10% of the profit share after the success.
In order to get accurate data on the Bitcoin circulation disk and ratio in the market, after exporting the block browser data for accurate analysis, Soros knew that he had to take down the black box of the trading platform. He found the largest trading platform in country M at the time. Person in charge of H. Soros told the other party that charging a ten-year transaction fee is worse than doing this ticket with me, and that well-known local officials in states P and N have joined the Air Force Alliance. He said that as long as he knows the position of the long positions of the futures of H, and the amount of funds in the remaining margin of the account, he can achieve a precise strike with less funds. Responsible person.
Soros understands that the market is already a precarious tall building. He will be the one who ignites, but still needs more institutions to fuel the fire.
Therefore, he began to contact the well-known international hot money P mentioned above, explaining in detail the logic of his short selling: the mining industry is equivalent to the primary market of Bitcoin, and now the mining of Bitcoin is very disordered, which is a precursor of decline. . The fund lending company no longer carefully reviews the customer's credit qualifications as before, but in order to make money faster and lend freely. A large number of miners have obtained loans to buy more mining machines. With these mining machines, they try to get more loans. Data show that the debt ratio of the entire mining industry has far exceeded 70%. Some savvy cloud computing companies have started touting computing power for the next 100 years.
At the same time, the hedging needs of retail investors in the secondary market have spawned bitcoin price insurance products. Crypto-asset financial companies no longer pay attention to risk control as in the past. Instead, they are accustomed to simply being a seller in the options market. "Rent".
Soros smiled sideways, as if excited to see the prey was about to be arrested, he continued: You know, the mining cost of Bitcoin is $ 85,000, and the current price is $ 110,000. Now it is exactly at the time of halving, the miner's block reward income will plummet. As long as the price breaks through $ 70,000, it will definitely trigger the death spiral of highly leveraged mining. Now the bulls in the market will become our most gorgeous. Fuel, their serial closeouts will leave option sellers at a loss. Moreover, short bitcoin is the correct thing in this world politics. Whether it is the stock market or commodities, there may be force majeure to obstruct our plan, and bitcoin is almost the ultimate slaughterhouse.
Seeing the other side is still a little hesitant, Soros added: In order to ensure foolproof, I have won the local officials of State N and the person in charge of H. Whether it is news or data, we have no chance to miss. I have laid out these position strategies, and I am waiting for you to join. The head of Hot Money P nodded.
The curtain opened.
(2020 + 4N) On December 24, Soros decided to strike hard on everyone's Christmas Eve.
That night, Soros suddenly sold a number of USD 1 billion in bitcoin short orders in the far month contract, which caused Bitcoin to fall from a maximum of US $ 120,000. Due to the position data held by H, Soros at each point The operations were exquisite, and eventually the bulls stepped in succession, and the price plummeted to around 95,000 US dollars.
The next day, when some brave spot counterfeit chassis flooded in, Soros began to sell the previously purchased X billion US dollars of spot Bitcoin, and there was no sleep in the crypto circle on Christmas Eve. Investment institutions and the media smelled the wind and started writing Soros sold bitcoin, suspected of being short.
On December 26, short sentiment began to spread in the market, with well-known international hot money P overweight short orders, and the market began to panic. Soros immediately contacted local officials in state M and state N, and the other party immediately issued a notice in N state regarding the thorough investigation of bitcoin's illegal electricity use, as well as the "state N boycott of Bitcoin speculation initiative", and called on the state's parliament to pay attention to bitcoin. Unreasonable speculation and wasted electricity. Bitcoin dropped to $ 75,000 without a doubt.
On December 27, the original bitcoin futures originally held by Soros went into physical delivery, and once again received a spot value of USD 5 billion in bitcoin at a unit price of US $ 7.5.
On December 28, Soros dumped the bitcoin spot from the delivery, and the market entered the abyss. Twitter's "Bitcoin MLM, Blockchain Scam" became a hot search keyword.
McCafee tweeted again that his $ 500,000 prediction was obviously a joke, so you don't need to take it seriously. Musk also said that Bitcoin is no longer suitable as a payment currency for interstellar travel due to excessive price fluctuations. The famous trader Xiao K left a sentence "Goodbye!" In the forum and never appeared again. As for Miner B? No one knows where he went. Because Bitcoin has already fallen below $ 40,000, the price of mining machines has plunged, and he cannot afford to repay high loans at the same time that he cannot make ends meet with mining. For the sake of his wife and children, he can only remain anonymous.
On December 29, Black Friday, historically known as Bitcoin, has fallen below the $ 20,000 mark as the bulls have been declining and the dominoes of the industry chain have collapsed. Q, the world's largest "bank" in the crypto world, declared bankruptcy and was unable to repay user funds and related insurance policies; while S, the largest mining machine manufacturer in country M, announced that it would permanently suspend the mining business line and instead move into the development of space travel machine chips.
In the sorrow of the market, Soros's early-purchase put options began to become real-value options, and that night he made $ 50 billion.
This story cannot happen at all because …
I believe many readers will read the above sentence after reading the story of BlockBeats.
It is true that the above story has been exaggerated in the description of the numbers, but it has to be admitted that all this holds true from a macro-logical perspective-or that the current objective conditions do not hold for the time being, but it does not mean that it will not Established.
The reason why Soros do not do this now is that the circulation of bitcoin is not large enough to satisfy the appetite of predators, and the second is that the mining leverage of bitcoin is not high enough, and the derivatives market such as options is flowing Sex is still poor. The current crypto world's head companies still have a bottom line and original intention, but if these precious things are lost in the rapid development of the future, the consequences will be interpreted into the above story.
Blockbeats really want to convey in this article, not to sing bad or bearish, but hope to give the industry some inspiration and warning.