My personal backpack often contains two Kevin Kelly books, one heavy one, "Out of Control", an insight into the final destiny and end of humankind, and one "Inevitable", which looks forward to the future development trend of science and technology.
After reading and thinking about these two books, I found that KK God has a pessimistic mood on the evolution and development of science and technology.
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Stringing the central ideas of the two books, KK seems to want to tell us a truth: the continuous evolution of technology is "inevitable", but the ultimate fate of humanity is "out of control".
Why do you say that?
Mankind always overestimates the power of science and technology development, and proudly believes that the current era is the best, but it is actually not the case.
Neil Bozeman warns us in "Entertainment to the Dead" that television can make people impatient; Nico Lascar reminds us in "Thin" that computers can make thinking superficial; Shirley Turk In his "solitary solitude", Erle pointedly pointed out that mobile phones will let us fall into a new type of loneliness; Daniel Levitin confessed in "orderly" that the Internet will distract us due to information overload.
Many times, "Only by jumping out of the moment can we better understand the moment."
A friend asked me why do you believe in the future of blockchain so much? I said, "I dare not talk about the future of the blockchain, but the end of the Internet now seems to be before us."
The best way to recognize blockchain is to re-examine the Internet.
The development of the Internet over the past two decades has allowed humanity to bathe in the grace of the Internet and enjoy free information, multiple channels, low-cost entrepreneurship, and the convenience of penetrating into every aspect of life. A person can enjoy the feeling of "King of Heaven" as long as he is connected to the Internet. Boring and vibrating, is it hungry to eat? Recreating the glory of the king, shopping and shopping on Taobao, singing with K song, keeping with fitness, traveling is called Didi. , Social WeChat, Alternative Social Momo.
The Internet is almost omnipotently integrated into everyone's lives, and many people have therefore become strong believers in the Internet, thinking that the Internet model can solve all problems.
If you look at it from another perspective, you will find that the Internet gives us free information, but it may be violating our privacy; the Internet gives big business winners the advantage of being all-in-one, but leaves many small and medium-sized enterprises on the verge of death; But neighbors were exiled to the end of the earth, and people and people lost the most basic trust.
To sum up, looking at the history of scientific and technological growth is the history of human civilization's continuous pursuit of "equality, openness, freedom, sharing, and collaboration." While human beings have gained "openness" and "sharing" in the development of the Internet, they are running counter to "equality" and "freedom".
In my opinion, the development of blockchain is an action to save the Internet.
At least for now, blockchain can fill some of the Internet's imperfections.
Not long ago, the community freshness platform "Staying Radish" was shut down. Only in June, it received a round A financing of 630 million yuan, which was consumed in less than half a year.
Coincidentally, including ofo bike sharing, Taojiji social e-commerce, home improvement platform Tubatu, etc., these Internet companies who have tried to burn money to burn a future Internet company have all died.
The cause of their death was apparently the lack of a business model, but the underlying reason behind it was actually "capital shackles."
Internet companies' business models are essentially "platform driven".
The platform provides "free" information flow and services to users. After the large user group comes in, it produces a scale effect that makes the marginal cost infinitely approach zero. The platform then supports the platform through the payment of advertisers or a small number of users to achieve a kind of Business closed loop.
The process of exploring this closed loop of business was originally a long one, but there is a shortcut: capital subsidies.
The involvement of capital can be described as a bad deal for ordinary users, including coupons, subsidies for newcomers, subsidies for pulling new people, rebates on consumption, and so on. In recent years, everyone has been busy fleecing wool on the Internet platform. But for companies, it becomes a nightmare. Subsidies will allow initiative to be held in the hands of capital-rich platforms, which will virtually increase the threshold and cost of the entire Internet entrepreneurship, and make more and more entrepreneurs overwhelmed.
Moreover, friends who understand finance understand that capital is essentially leveraging.
On the surface, companies that are ripened by capital can obtain faster development speed, wider channel coverage, and larger-scale traffic, but once the business model matures at a slower rate than the capitalist seeks return on investment, the Internet platform will completely Was bound by capital.
In order to accelerate the rate of return, the A round of capital parties will continue to look for larger capital parties such as B and C to take orders. In order to accelerate the listing, the subsequent capital parties may force companies to chase short-term cash flow profits in order to meet the listing conditions as soon as possible. Some companies are very smooth in the process of capital transfer and eventually successfully go public, but more companies will face a life-and-death test because of a poor capital connection.
Unlike the underlying drivers of the Internet, the company's business model in the blockchain era is essentially "community driven". The process of project 1CO is actually to implement "crowdfunding" to communities that recognize its innovation value through roadshows. the process of.
In a sense, the great innovation of the 1CO model is that it subverts the investment and financing model of the traditional Internet economy, transfers the risks originally borne by investors to the broad community of users who recognize the value of the project, and not only lowers the threshold for entrepreneurship, It also diluted investment risks.
When the capital risk of the project startup is diluted, the project party can be free from the shackles of the large capital party, maintain independent and independent innovation and development, and bind the development fate of the enterprise with the common interests of community members, which will also provide corporate development A steady stream of community growth momentum.
Such a community economy does not need to be too large. It is enough to be small and self-sufficient in the United States. Failure of everyone ’s individual interests will not be too affected. Success will result in multiple returns. This is an elegant and beautiful form of future business organization innovation.
However, due to the lack of supervision, the 1CO model has temporarily reduced to a wealth-collecting tool used by some users for speculation, which has brought greater harm to the healthy development of society.
In the longer term, however, capital risks are sinking from investment institutions to ordinary individuals, the platform economy is transitioning to the community economy, and the business body is changing from large to full to small and beautiful. It must be the trend of the times.
A few days ago, the online transmission byte beating company is today's headline. In 2019, advertising revenue was 120 billion yuan, and the average daily profit was 400 million yuan. Many people have heard this stun, is this a money printing machine?
Coincidentally, too many large-scale Internet head companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan Reviews, Baidu, and so on, make money just like printing money.
Seeing a set of data said that the top ten companies in 2019 concentrated 94.85% of China's Internet advertising.
This is another dead spot under the Internet social architecture, where the winner takes all!
The hard currency that supports the development of Internet commerce is "flow". Whoever masters the flow can quickly land a set of innovative models that have just emerged, and then gain the market first.
It is no exaggeration to say that with the development of Internet technology in the future, the living space of SMEs will become more and more aggressive.
The investment department of the Internet head company will sensitively focus on innovation attempts in every corner of the world. Once it is found that there is promising, either buy or buy, or copy, but no matter what the result, being targeted is basically equal to "death".
On the surface, the Internet is an open and equal free world. Everyone has the right to compete on the same track, but the starting lines of the same track may not be the same.
Fundamentally, "traffic" is the key to the success of Internet companies. Obviously, this game is unfair, and those Internet giants who have already received traffic will become the biggest beneficiaries.
To a certain extent, this has made the competitive situation of the Internet society stale, bloody, and cold and violent. It has also created another inequality of opportunities for social development.
New economic oligarchs such as Google, Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent, Today's Headline, and Meituan Review have established barriers that are difficult to break, inhibiting the development of many innovative small businesses. Some people may say that large enterprises will also use funds for mergers and acquisitions, flow support, and resources to attract, as if it is not bad for small enterprises.
Having said that, please compare the amount acquired with the amount killed, not to mention that after the acquisition, organizing a major exchange of blood, the enterprise or the strategic chess piece of a large company has become a dead horse.
Looking at the longer-term cycle, when the fate of technological development is completely controlled by large enterprises, when a company occupies a very strong profit barrier, the probability of innovation will be selectively delayed, and one day large enterprises will also be organized by their own Rigidity and collapse, this is what the decline of Kodak, Nokia and other giant companies tell us.
The will of the country has always been to encourage SMEs to innovate in science and technology, but now the Internet age we are in is no longer a good time for SMEs to innovate. That ’s why the country listed blockchain technology as a core technology breakthrough in the digital economy era.
Different from the “flow” competition of the Internet, the public blockchain, alliance chain and various industrial landing solutions in the blockchain ecosystem essentially let large companies hand over their rights.
The key is data rights. There is no doubt that big data is the core asset that every big Internet company regards as the lifeblood. In the old Internet organization relationship, they rely on data monopoly and data islands to obtain a series of creations such as growth hacking, market sinking, and scene penetration. The only magic weapon for business miracles.
In the blockchain organization relationship, data must be shared, shared to everyone is the public chain, and the ecological partners shared upstream and downstream of the industry is the alliance chain. In contrast, the openness and sharing of data will give many small and medium-sized enterprises an equal opportunity to start a business, and will allow the socio-economic display of unprecedented market vitality.
A few days ago, WeChat launched the public account "Paid Reading", and a friend sent a circle of friends saying that in the near future there will be an explosive article with ten million income.
I was thinking that the title of this article must be like this: "How can I earn three suites with one article".
Presumably, few of the users who spend money reading it think about the value of the article itself, but are extremely excited to participate in this feat of helping others become multi-millionaires.
Don't laugh, my friends, this may be a true psychological portrait of each of us in the Internet age.
When Li Jiaqi, a live broadcaster, said with a magical voice, "MMs, your devil is here, OMG, buy it …", you place an uncontrollable crazy order and help Li Jiaqi complete the double eleventh day sale10 Billion myths.
In the Internet era, everyone will underestimate the value of their contributions, and define all phenomenal phenomenal incidents as accidental and crazy following.
This is the group unconscious illusion produced after the Internet "free" thinking enslaves people.
There is an old saying that "free is the most expensive".
You think it's free, but "charges" are always there. On the bright side, Daxing's knowledge has paid in recent years, such as getting paid courses for apps, paid audio for Himalayan sound apps, iQiyi's pay TV videos, Yingke live broadcast reward modes, and so on.
Hiding in the dark is your "data" that you have always ignored.
We take it for granted that the Internet gives us a lot of free information, and the individual contributions of each of us are insignificant. In fact, on the contrary, without your crazy repost, you can't produce 100,000+, without your crazy purchase, you can't achieve Li Jiaqi.
You have contributed too much value data to the Internet platform, including every retweet, comment, and like on Weibo, every double-click on Douyin Express, every shopping search on JD Tmall, and even after the GPS of your smartphone is turned on Every time the location moves, with the advent of the 5G era, these data that you once thought are not so important will have great business value in the business society.
The platform can package this data for sale. If the data is sold accurately, it can also increase efficiency. For example, today ’s headlines, through your search habits, let ads that match your preferences appear on your information list first. But in fact, most of the data is often sold rudely, and has already hedged the value brought by the Internet for free. We often inexplicably receive various types of information harassment such as house sales, insurance sales, fraud and intimidation, which are basically the consequences of data being illegally traded.
Unlike the "free" of the Internet, the blockchain advertises paid cognition from the beginning, and the blockchain ultimately also assets all data.
Every token you hold is priced. Every interaction you like, share, and comment with the token in the community will be rewarded with the corresponding token. Blockchain technology builds a completely "paid" bottom layer, allowing each part of the entire business economic model to be quantified in the form of a token. In this way, the user's UGC contribution can be bundled with the platform's revenue, and the revenue obtained by the platform can be reasonably distributed according to the degree of contribution, thereby activating the vitality of the community.
The mission of the blockchain is to reduce the noise of the Internet's information by transforming the bottom layer of production relations, quantify and allocate the value of self-organized economies, confirm the rights of valuable information, and assetize it.
Although data assetization cannot be achieved overnight, it has to be said that this is the ultimate direction worthy of our efforts.
Crisis of Confidence
In the age of the Internet, we still face torture of souls.
It is important to read a valuable article about future business opportunities, or a short video of a beautiful woman shaking voice; it is more important to collectively remember the great achievements of the deceased scientist, or to watch the news of a divorce tearing by a star couple; An old friend's midnight song is important to wine, or is it more important to keep a computer and play a chicken?
Everyone has their own decent answer to this question, but it is generalized to the public, and we only see one kind of "answer" in the circle of friends.
You will find that too many social values in the Internet age are seriously distorted.
Individual values may be very "positive", but driven by the group's unconscious behavior, any false seriousness will be instantly returned to its original shape.
Watching gossip news, eating melon, watching live broadcasts of beautiful women, reposting all kinds of chicken soup and paragraphs, etc. have become the imprints of this era flowing into our blood and engraved on our skin.
The reason for this is basically the "trust" crisis caused by the Internet information explosion.
Living in the age of the information Internet, the cost of fraud is too low. Virtual vests, irresponsible remarks, induced interest traps, scammers can cast nets and fish at a low cost, and wear away the basic trust of the Internet society. Chat, socialize, and blind date. You never know if the vest hiding behind that graceful figure is an uncle, a wine caretaker, or even a fraud group. Over time, you dare not trust anyone or anything on the Internet.
There is an irrefutable theorem in economics: when the Internet is flooded with a large number of copies, they will become worthless, and those things that cannot be copied will become rare and valuable.
Let's say trust. Trust cannot be mass-produced, purchased, or forged.
We noticed that today ’s headlines turned Slogan into “information creates value” and Tencent became “technology for good.” When you are immersed in the information explosion bonus, you must be alert to what is lost.
Unlike the Internet super copier, the blockchain is still a bulky printer right now.
The way of blockchain chain value is actually to increase the cost of information transmission so that information cannot be tampered with.
To put it simply, Bitcoin is essentially a data problem that can be solved at a "high cost" and restricts everyone's "low-cost" evil system. Blockchain technology is also an economic governance model with dynamic checks and balances.
When the information on the chain cannot be tampered with, the trust relationship between people at both ends of the information naturally returns.
Others say that if the information is fake before it is chained, what's the point of not being tampered with after chaining?
This is the biggest slot where blockchain technology is currently being criticized.
Blockchain technology is still advancing. I cannot refute your doubts, but what I want to say is that the Internet or blockchain is essentially a medium that serves people.
The Internet makes the network environment untrustworthy, which does not mean that everyone can be deceived, and has been deceived, but it will only reduce everyone's dependence on the Internet;
The significance of the existence of the blockchain is precisely to make the network environment credible. At present, the cost of tampering with the information on the chain has been solved, and the threshold for the on-chain will not be low, and the nodes will not spend large costs to maintain worthless false data. And information.
It is believed that in the future development process of the blockchain, a series of solutions will emerge around the cross-validation of information before the chain. This is a process of continuous development efforts.
From the potential problems in the current Internet model, including “capital shackles, traffic monopoly, free traps, and crisis of trust”, I explained to the monarchs why the evolution of the Internet to the blockchain is a necessity. In fact, there are many more that can be extended.
Whether it can succeed or not is long and long, but this is my belief in the blockchain era.
Beyond the blockchain itself, from the perspective of the Internet, you will also have a lot of positive thinking. As a child, everyone learned Chekhov's short story "The Man in a Suit". The sad thing about Belikov in the story is that he always tried to hide himself by all means, but never thought that he would hide him instead. More prominently exposed to the crowd.
When you were still paranoid and thought that "blockchain is just a place for air currency and altcoin scammers", did you ever think whether you have been paralyzed by the current Internet dilemma?
Looking back on the entire process of technological development, from telegrams to telephones, to the Internet, and to the upcoming blockchain era in the future.
At the top of each wave, people take it for granted that the current technology is the most impeccable, but just jump out and find out:
The change of the times is essentially the inevitable development of science and technology, but most of us only perform on the stage "passively".
In this age of rapid change, the biggest offense is to stand still.
Thousands of sails raced forward.
This is the fate of your common era.
Awareness evangelist of blockchain value, a standard-bearer of new blockchain thought, and a senior blockchain practitioner. There is no concept of tallness here, nor is there a rare technical explanation, only the most popular business, the most sensitive perspective, the most unique insights. I am still a poor elementary school student in the blockchain industry. All the thoughts and thoughts in this article are broken thoughts. If you are in the circle, do n’t laugh. Welcome to discuss. Author's WeChat: tmel0328 WeChat public number: liansg01 If you need to reprint, please add me to WeChat to apply for a whitelist. If you agree with my point of view, you can also add me and pull you to join the on-chain audience communication group.