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Before and after the Spring Festival, should investors choose to "buy in peace" or "hold money for the holiday"? A veteran cryptocurrency investor told PAData that the prevailing view in the currency circle this year is that it is bearish before the holiday and bullish after the holiday. "Everyone has to take money for the New Year before the holiday. There is a need to withdraw funds. After the holiday, there is a need to put money in. After the holiday, we are optimistic about the rebound." Then how likely is Bitcoin to come out of this "script" ? Based on data corrected by Coin Metrics, PAData analyzes the currency price trends of Bitcoin during the week before the holiday, the Spring Festival (referring to the statutory holiday year from 30 to the new year) and the week after the holiday from 2011 to 2019. From the historical data, Bitcoin's "Spring Festival market" rose seven and fell two days, with a 7-day average return of approximately 6.02%.
From the historical data of the past ten years, the market during the Spring Festival is likely to be a continuation of the market a week before the holiday. Similarly, the market a week after the holiday is a continuation of the Spring Festival market.
In the past ten years, except for 2018, the market during the Bitcoin Spring Festival has been more consistent with the market trends before and after the festival, and there are almost no gaps in gaps and reversals.
In the past ten years, if you hold a holiday, the highest gain you can get is 26.54% (2011), but the fluctuation of Bitcoin has eased in the past five years, and the highest gain you can get is 9.48% (2017). The average return of holding currency in the past ten years is 6.02%.
In the past ten years, before the holiday, bitcoin rose by six and fell by three. During the Spring Festival, bitcoin rose by seven and fell by two. After the holiday, bitcoin rose by five and fell. From a probabilistic perspective, the probability of gaining money by holding too much energy is 77.78%, which is higher than the week before and after the holiday.
The Spring Festival in the last two years of production reduction has risen and fallen, and Bitcoin's halving market has not started. The Spring Festival trend is still closely related to the time before and after. The concept of production reduction is a long-term advantage, and the impact on the market in a specific local time range may be limited.
2011: rose from pre-holiday to post-holiday, the Spring Festival rose 26%
In 2011, bitcoin was born less than three years ago, at which time the price of bitcoin had just exceeded $ 1. During the Spring Festival, the price of Bitcoin rose from about 0.73 US dollars to 0.92 US dollars, a 7-day increase of 26.54%
The rising trend of the Spring Festival has been obvious since the beginning of the festival. The week before the Spring Festival (7 days), the price of Bitcoin rose from 0.42 USD to 0.71 USD, an increase of about 69.05%. Although the rapid rise was moderated during the Spring Festival, it continued to the week after the festival. According to statistics, the price of bitcoin rose from US $ 1.02 to US $ 1.05 in the week after the holiday. Although the increase was only 2.94%, it has stood firm at the US $ 1 mark.
2012: Fall before the holiday, pick up after the holiday, fall by 10% during the Spring Festival
Bitcoin in 2012 is still on its way to $ 10. During the Spring Festival, Bitcoin dropped from around $ 6.30 to $ 5.66, a drop of 10.20%.
The decline in the Spring Festival of 2012 is actually a continuation of the downward trend before the festival. The week before the holiday, Bitcoin dropped from $ 7.05 to $ 6.18, a decrease of approximately 14.08%. Although it is still in a downward trend during the Spring Festival, from the perspective of the trend, when the Spring Festival holiday is approaching the end, the currency price has shown a downward trend. One week after the holiday, Bitcoin rebounded moderately, rising from $ 5.39 to $ 5.90, an increase of about 9.46%.
2012 was the year of bitcoin production reduction, but under the blessing of the "Chinese New Year" and "halving" concepts, Bitcoin still fell by about 10% during the 2012 Chinese New Year.
2013: Continue to rise, 14% in Spring Festival
In 2013, the price of Bitcoin has stabilized above $ 10. From pre-holiday to post-holiday, Bitcoin has been rising moderately. The week before the holiday, Bitcoin rose from $ 19.64 to $ 22.79, an increase of approximately 16.04%. During the Spring Festival, Bitcoin rose from $ 23.73 to $ 27.17, an increase of approximately 14.50%. One week after the holiday, Bitcoin rose from $ 27.35 to $ 30.47, an increase of about 11.41%.
It is interesting that in the Chinese New Year, the fifth day is the day of "welcoming the God of Wealth". On this day in 2013, bitcoin rose from 24.64 US dollars to 27.28 US dollars, a single-day increase of 10.71%.
2014: both before and after the holiday, the Chinese New Year fell slightly by 2%
In 2014, bitcoin already had the momentum to hit the $ 1,000 mark. During the Spring Festival, the bitcoin market out of the sideways downward trend, fell slightly from 799.5 US dollars to 784.5 US dollars, a decline of about 1.88%.
In fact, from the week before the holiday, Bitcoin has started to fall. Before the holiday, Bitcoin dropped from $ 810.9 to $ 793.4, a drop of approximately 2.16%. After the Chinese New Year sideways, Bitcoin continued to decline after the holiday. One week after the holiday, Bitcoin dropped from $ 763.6 to $ 653.8, a decline that expanded to 14.38%.
2015: Before and after the festival, it is rising, and the Spring Festival is up by 1.6%
The price of bitcoin in 2015 was lower than in 2014 as a whole. In 2014, Bitcoin was still hovering around $ 1,000. By 2015, Bitcoin had fallen below $ 300. During the Spring Festival, Bitcoin adjusted sideways, rising from $ 236.00 to $ 239.87, an increase of only 1.64%.
The Chinese New Year's sideways adjustment is a slight increase before the holiday. The week before the holiday, Bitcoin rose from US $ 219.5 to US $ 243.91, an increase of approximately 11.12%, and the highest increase was approximately 17.37%. After the adjustment during the Spring Festival, Bitcoin rose rapidly after the holiday, rising from $ 238.24 to $ 282.71, an increase of approximately 18.67%. From the overall trend point of view, around 2015 Chinese New Year, bitcoin rose moderately.
2016: Chinese New Year rose slightly by 4%
Bitcoin was still hovering below $ 500 in early 2016. During the Spring Festival, Bitcoin rose slightly from $ 375.15 to $ 389.60, an increase of about 3.85%.
The currency price during the 2016 Spring Festival continued the pre-holiday adjustment. The week before the holiday, the price of Bitcoin rose from US $ 366.34 to US $ 374.63, an increase of approximately 2.26%. After two weeks of adjustment, after the holiday, Bitcoin has a significant wave of rising prices, the currency price rose from 406.15 US dollars to 440.20 US dollars, an increase of 8.38%.
2016 is also a year of production reduction, but judging from the trend of the Spring Festival market, the Bitcoin production reduction market has not yet started during the Spring Festival.
2017: Chinese New Year rose 9%, fell after the holiday
During the 2017 Spring Festival, Bitcoin broke the $ 1,000 mark, rising from $ 920.5 to $ 1007.7, an increase of 9.48%.
In fact, before the Spring Festival rally, Bitcoin had already shown an upward adjustment trend. The week before the holiday, Bitcoin surged from USD 895.2 to USD 916.7, an increase of about 2.40%. However, after the Spring Festival broke through the $ 1,000 mark, Bitcoin after the holiday began to pull back to confirm support. One week after the holiday, Bitcoin fluctuated from 1015.3 US dollars to 982.8 US dollars, a decrease of about 3.20%. But from the overall trend point of view, Bitcoin is still rising in the 2017 Spring Festival.
2018: High level shock during the Spring Festival, adjusted down after the festival
Just one year later, in the Spring Festival of 2018, the price of bitcoin has reached the $ 10,000 mark, but the $ 1,000 at this time is back from the high of nearly $ 20,000 at the end of 2017. During the Spring Festival, Bitcoin rose slightly from $ 10,107 to $ 10,459, an increase of about 3.48%.
In fact, around the Spring Festival in 2018, Bitcoin was in shock and fluctuating frequently, and the price trend of the currency was more “zigzag”. The week before the holiday, Bitcoin surged from $ 8,219 to $ 9,467, an increase of approximately 15.18%. One week after the holiday, Bitcoin oscillated from $ 10,459 to $ 10,307, a slight drop of 1.45%. Since then, Bitcoin's upside has been weak, it has continued to fall, and it turned into a bear market by the middle of the year.
2019: During the Spring Festival, it will fall first and then rise before the festival.
At the beginning of 2019, the industry is still in the cold winter. During the Spring Festival, Bitcoin out of the band market, the first half fell slightly, the second half rose slightly, the turning point is the New Year's Day (February 8, 2019). On this day, Bitcoin rose by 7.55% in a single day. During the Spring Festival, Bitcoin rose from $ 3411.4 to $ 3642.0, an increase of only 6.767%.
For the market around the Spring Festival in 2019, eating a single-day market on February 8 is equivalent to eating the entire Spring Festival market, because one week before and after the Spring Festival, Bitcoin is in a sideways shock, and both have created the Spring Festival for nearly a decade. The lowest market volatility. One week before the holiday, Bitcoin dropped slightly from US $ 3435.1 to US $ 3411.4, a decrease of 0.69%. One week after the holiday, bitcoin rose slightly from $ 3590.6 to $ 3622.8, an increase of 0.90%.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is made by the author based on data analysis and his own observation of the industry, and does not constitute any investment advice. The company will not be held liable if readers suffer financial losses as a result of investing in the information in this article.