On February 3, A shares ushered in the first trading day after the Lunar New Year. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened unexpectedly and opened lower. The Shanghai index opened at 2716.67, plunging 8.73%; the Shenzhen component index opened at 9706.58, plunging 9.13%; Of the more than 3,700 stocks available in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, nearly 3,000 stocks opened and stopped.
As a result, the SSE Index also recorded its largest opening drop in nearly 23 years. According to statistics, in the history of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the opening drop of more than 8.73% has occurred only 4 times, the most recent of which was February 20, 1997, and the opening day fell 9.61%.
However, at the time of the "crash" of A shares, the Bitcoin market changed. At 9:30 in the morning, Bitcoin rose rapidly, rising from $ 9,400 to $ 9,600, a new high of nearly 90 days .
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(Data source: QKL123 )
Since today is the first working day after the Spring Festival, some people in the currency circle have ridiculed the rise of Bitcoin as " starting profit ".
Regarding the rise of Bitcoin, some people in the currency circle attribute it to the global safe-haven asset properties of Bitcoin, which is even better than gold. In addition, the halving date of Bitcoin is approaching, and it is expected that the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise.
Although the nature of Bitcoin's safe-haven assets is still controversial, recent uncertain events at home and abroad seem to be giving answers.
For example, since 2020, a number of armed conflicts between the United States and Iran have caused Bitcoin to soar. Among them, on January 3, after the United States launched an air strike to kill the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's elite holy city brigade commander Suleimani, Bitcoin rose by more than 5%. During the Spring Festival of 2020, the epidemic of new coronavirus infection spread rapidly across the country. In order to fight the epidemic as soon as possible, China began to restrict the large-scale movement of personnel. Wuhan, which had a severe epidemic, even adopted an unprecedented "cities closure" on January 23. Since then, Bitcoin has started to rise steadily, and has since risen by 11%.
In fact, in recent years, the world has fallen into a three-phase superposition of long-term low interest rates, low economic growth, and high uncertainty. Traditional stock portfolios such as stock markets, bond markets, and property markets that investors are familiar with are being impacted. The rise of the representative new type of blockchain digital assets has brought new ideas to the traditional combination configuration .
In response, Cao Yin, the former chief blockchain expert of Cinda Securities, pointed out that today, with the global linkage of global economic and monetary policies, the systemic risk positions of traditional investment portfolios are essentially the same. Bitcoin is an excellent tool for decentralized investment. The risk aversion of Bitcoin is not because Bitcoin is low risk, but because Bitcoin has nothing to do with this world, and the source of risk does not belong to this world.
But this does not mean that we have to abandon this world . In fact, taking China as an example, whether it is SARS in 2003, Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, H7N9 in 2013, or the Sino-US trade war in 2019, these short-term uncertain events cannot stop China's economic development. At present, China has grown to be the second largest economy in the world, with a GDP of 998.6 trillion yuan in 2019 and a breakthrough of 100 trillion yuan in 2020. At the same time, China's GDP per capita exceeded USD 10,000 for the first time in 2019. In the capital market, Alibaba, Tencent, Guizhou Moutai, Ping An of China, Hengrui Medicine, China Merchants Bank and other core assets representing the new economy and the real industry were born, which are enough to prove China's excellence.
There are reasons to believe that the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on China's real economy and capital market will be short-term and controllable.
At present, there is good news in China's fight against the epidemic . According to the data released by the National Health and Medical Commission, the increase in confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the new crown virus infection has been declining, and it has begun to decline since it reached a 64.54% increase on January 27. The increase in the past 3 days has dropped to 20% the following.
(Data source: official website of National Health Commission )
The research and development of new coronavirus vaccines has also achieved staged results. The State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Diagnosis and Treatment of Zhejiang University led by Academician Li Lanjuan has isolated 8 new coronavirus strains, plus 2 new coronavirus strains successfully isolated by the Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention on January 24. Currently, a total of 10 virus strains have been isolated, which will provide positive help for accelerating the research on the screening of antiviral drugs and the pathogenesis.
In addition, Wuhan Vulcan Mountain Hospital, which has been under construction since New Year's Eve, was delivered to the military on February 2. Today, patients will be admitted and can accommodate 1,000 beds.
With the end of the epidemic, the Chinese economy will once again have a new life. By that time (around May 13, 2020), Bitcoin will also be halved, and the 2020 bitcoin bull market, which is eagerly awaited by the currency circle , will also be verified .
As of press time, more than 3,000 A-shares had their daily limit lowered , and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed at a 7.72% decline. This is the largest decline in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index since August 24, 2015. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated around $ 9,400.
So, in the face of short-term plummeting A-shares and bitcoin that started to rise, from the perspective of asset allocation, what choices will you make?