The computing power said: Tao Rongqi, the founder of X-Order and a partner of NGC Ventures, gave a special live video broadcast of the open class of the University of Hali last night as a special guest. What is the difference between the stock market and the cryptocurrency market? How is Bitcoin going this year? Will Ethereum challenge Bitcoin in the future? Tao Rongqi combed and shared his personal understanding of these important information in the form of keywords. He stated that the halving market ushered in the digital currency market will not be over for the time being. This year's bitcoin may repeat the story of high and low prices. Be careful . Tao Rongqi believes that the strengthening of domestic supervision may cause short-term negative effects, but in the long run, it is squeezing out water, which is conducive to the formal development of the market.
Today I am talking about some keywords in 2020. If it is the direction of investment in 2020, I will personally put the following three in a very important position: Long Gold, Long crypto, Long china.
Crypto market goes left
Stock market to the right
We will find that everything that is done well in crypto assets is strongly related to finance.
Finance is not the current finance, but the future finance, so it is called the future of finance. Various top-level figures, economists, government figures, including our common people, believe that crypto assets are the future of finance, which means that blockchain is the future of finance.
The second characteristic is from digital to landing. The Crypto we are looking at, the first birth product is called Bitcoin, which is a pure digital currency. By now we will find more and more Crypto can be combined with landing applications, this is from digital to landing.
The third is from niche to mass. I believe that everyone has deep feelings. I believe that 20% of many audiences have contacted Crypto a long time ago, and 80% of them have only recently contacted Crypto. This is from niche to public.
The fourth is from hedging to global entrepreneurship. In fact, hedging is a very strong attribute of Crypto. For example, when we say that fighting in a certain place, Iran and the United States are going to do it, and Bitcoin's hedging attribute is reflected.
Global entrepreneurship and risk aversion are completely different and opposite properties, but they are reflected in Crypto together.
Global entrepreneurship, we will find that when everyone mentioned Crypto in the past few years, the most mentioned word was that I was going to start a business. I have a white paper. I want to pull a team, including myself, and we are going to do something. How to do it? With Crypto, this is global entrepreneurship.
Generally speaking, entrepreneurship is a thing that you are willing to do when the market is good, and hedging is a thing that you only do when the market is very bad. It is very contradictory in crypto assets.
If the Crypto market is the future of finance, our domestic A-share market is the future of the world.
What do you mean? If there is another country that can lead the world forward when the economy is bad, it is China, the future of the world.
Secondly, China's stock market has evolved from physical to digital and is becoming more and more digital. We will find that from the beginning of this epidemic to the present, those stocks that have risen very well. Except for medical stocks, the others that have risen are online collaboration, remote, and nailing. All are digital things, so it is from Physics to numbers.
Point 3: From domestic to global , this sentence means to combine the opening up of our domestic financial markets. We will find that the launch of Chinese A shares this time is inseparable from foreign assets.
As far as I know, it was actually earlier around November of last year, but November is very clear. There are various Western, American, European, and Jewish money, billions of dollars to The reason for the domestic A shares to go into it is that they are optimistic about China's development, Long China.
We will find that in the free trade agreement, there is a very important direction in Sino-US trade enterprises. China is opening up the financial market. How can China open up the financial market? Why is it open? Have you thought about it?
In fact, it seems to me that foreigners want to make money in the Chinese financial market, or use the Chinese financial market to make money in China , so they have to open up, so it is from domestic to global.
The fourth hedge and global engine. This is the same as the previous points. When we look at China's A-shares, it is first and foremost a global market engine that can move the world forward. At the same time, it also has a hedging property.
When the world is not good, when the United States is not working, when Europe is not working, what else can be done? Therefore, the safe-haven demand for funds has caused a variety of funds to flow into China last year.
Next we look at some hot spots that need attention in 2020:
Personally, I will pay attention to the following points about the direction of crypto assets: halving, self-finance, stablecoin, and turbulence.
Two months ago, in mid-to-late December of 2019, my friends approached some of our entire crypto industry, including me, and asked me: What direction do you think will take in 2020?
Personally, I am relatively optimistic about the halving. At that time, not many people were optimistic about halving.
The focus of the stock market
The stock market corresponds to some of the keywords of the crypto market just now: epidemic situation, financial openness, US stocks and stability.
The epidemic will likely bring great pressure to our stock market or the Chinese economy. If this matter can be solved, it will go well, if it cannot be solved, it will be very difficult.
The second point is financial openness. To what extent financial opening will be opened, and to what extent our epidemic situation can be resolved, it will directly lead to how our A shares will go this year.
The third point is US stocks. If the US stocks are better, China will be a little worse. If China is better, the U.S. stocks will be a little worse. But if funds and U.S. stocks are continuously withdrawn, where does it go? From a macro perspective, it is China's A shares. The problem is that if Chinese A shares are not working, the funds will flow back. So it's a seesaw.
The fourth is stability. Stability is the overriding theme of our country.
The digital currency you chase after me
Last year's 2019 Davos Forum talked about the poor economy and the economic downturn, which may face economic pressure in 2019. Very accurate, the global economy will not work directly in 2019.
What is 2020 talking about? Talking about the digital economy, do you think it will be accurate? Very accurate. In fact, after the meeting, it exploded directly in February.
On January 1st, a big V on Twitter issued some sorts of stablecopies, including China's DCEP, EU's EUROChain, Libra, and so on.
Until now, we will find that there are more and more digital currencies in the world, and more and more. What I want to mention is such a general trend. Where is his real need?
Let ’s go back and see. Although the news is very lively, for example, the recent news of DCEP including Libra and the Federal Reserve all said that the digital currency era is coming. Japan, the European Union, Germany, China must do it, and the United States has to do it. Where is the demand that can be used?
We will find that the digital currency has been realized in China. It is realized through Alipay and UnionPay.
Where is digital currency useful? I think the real stable currency, the real digital currency demand is in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
It is actually a third world country. We know that Venezuela's inflation is quite severe. The United States has imposed sanctions on him again. He has created a petroleum coin and was used by the United States. There is really no way.
For him, demand for a stable domestic currency is very strong. Because inside Venezuela, everyone needs money for their lives. This currency can be US dollars, petroleum coins, or other currencies. In any case, a stable currency is needed.
There are many similar countries, including Iran, African countries and various third-world countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This need is actually not fully met.
I personally think that if you go to see Libar or DCEP, don't ignore these countries that really have a stable demand for stablecoins.
From staking to destruction:
Staking is a hot topic in 2019. In the end, you will find a problem: Staking still has to give interest.
After a year and a half, the corresponding supply should still be exported to the market. This is a revelation from Staking in 2019.
Two things have been hot this year. One thing is to halve the market. The second thing is that OKEX has destroyed 70% of its OK coins.
I think so about this matter. The staking thing is to quench the thirst, or to delay the current supply to the future, and the destruction is even more direct. For the future, the supply has disappeared, so you don't have to worry about Staking coming out in the future.
The best thing to do to destroy this is OKEX.
What happened on OKEX? BSV is undeniable that it is the leader in halving the market this year, and the BSV corresponds to the halving market. The BSV of the halving market happened on OK. Recently, he did 70% of the OK coin destruction.
We imagine if OK was inspired by the halving market, and then began to destroy its own future supply and utilization halving market, which is a possibility I observed.
Therefore, I think that the domestic protagonist in the first quarter of 2020 is OKEX. Will he continue to lead the trend in the coming months and even this year? I do n’t know, it may or may not be.
Opening Finance to Defi Out of the Niche
We will find that although Defi called fiercely in 2019, it is still slow to use. Including how Defi is out of the circle can be a big headache.
The word out of the circle, I think it will be a keyword in 2020, that is, from niche to the general public.
Defi has so many applications, but the impact on the entire crypto asset industry is actually relatively small, and the more important impact is still on Cefi. How can Defi compete with Cefi?
Defi Industry Map Resource Source Network
Here is an article recommended, the title is "Open Finance, Let Defi Out of the Niche Dilemma" , I recommend everyone to take a look.
Thriving but underrated DEX
DEX is the main force in Defi: a decentralized exchange.
Including kyber network and 0X are the main targets in DEX, but they performed poorly last year. What I want to say is that in the process of poor performance, the entire DEX industry is growing vigorously.
Although its growth is less than everyone's imagination in the year, it has increased by 10 times or even 100 times, but compared to an industry that has started, it has gone steadily and quickly. In particular, these two targets as the core, kyber network and 0X. It can be seen that they have frequently seen various good news since the second half of last year, and they are very solid and can be reflected in the transaction volume.
Which is the largest transaction volume in the entire Defi at present? In fact, it is the kyber network, but its ranking is relatively low. The ranking is still around 70 or 80, and the lowest is more than 100.
Just like this, it was claimed to be the last star recommended by God V. It did a good job and was solid. There were businesses in various places. The popularity of Twitter was also very high, but the price fell all the way. Until the end of last year, slowly crawled out. If you look at the weekly line of the kyber network, you will find a very comfortable bowl.
NFT application field development
Speaking of NFT (Non-Fungible Token non-homogeneous token) star company, it must be Nike that appeared in the news.
Nike actually applied for a NFT patent, that is, the patent that combined Token and shoes was earlier, but the news of the patent application was relatively late, and there was no corresponding news until the end of last year.
After the news from Nike, we will find that various companies have realized that NFT or the combination of token and physical is the future direction.
Why must the virtual blockchain be reflected on virtual things? Nike tells us that it can be bound to the real thing.
The fired shoes have been hot for some time in September of last year. In the future, the fired shoes will definitely be combined with Token. Don't worry about this shoe being true or false, because you are not buying and selling shoes, you are buying and selling Token.
As far as I know, all kinds of art industries, including the luxury goods industry, have begun to introduce the corresponding NFT into the binding of their art and luxury goods.
We can imagine that when you buy a good watch in the future, you will definitely be given a corresponding token, which is unique for you to own. When you buy art in the future, there will definitely be a corresponding token, only for this artwork.
In fact, this is the application direction of blockchain anti-counterfeiting traceability, and it is a step further than pure anti-counterfeiting traceability. There is a digital asset that can be felt.
All assets of NFT need to be combined with Defi, Big Data and AI to have applications.
We look at this picture. In fact, during the entire NFT transfer process, it needs Defi to participate in it deeply, otherwise the entire NFT is useless.
Why is Defi instead of Cefi, because NFT is naturally tightly integrated with Defi. Now most NFTs are assets on Ethernet, and when the assets on Ethereum are directly used for financial applications, the financial service is Defi. It is very easy to cut in, so NFT and Defi are very closely combined.
Impact of derivatives on the market
In our derivatives, which is the trading market, we will find that in the crypto asset market, the ratio of spot to derivatives is 1:10.
What do you mean? Trading volume. If the spot trading volume is 100 million yuan a day, the derivatives trading volume is mainly 1 billion yuan. Such a 1:10 state is the state that a mature financial market should reflect.
Let's take a look at the domestic stock market again? On February 3, the market suspended the short-selling business of securities lending, that is, the shorting mechanism. We can actually understand that the reason is that if the epidemic situation does not suspend the selling of securities, everyone will sell and then rely on securities to make money, and this market will not be able to sustain it.
But what I want to say is the industry of crypto assets, which is completely market-oriented and liberalized. In such a market-oriented and liberalized development, because derivatives are more profitable, I want to say that they are more profitable. He developed very well. At the same time, due to the very good development of derivatives, the spot price fluctuations will not be so drastic, and at the same time, the spot will not be limited.
Because after going up, someone will definitely want to use derivatives to go short and find its shortcomings. Such a mechanism has caused the rise of the spot to be very stable and solid. What I want to say is that when the ratio of derivatives to spot reaches 1:10 or more, the rise based on this is the real rise, not the nothingness.
Relationship between domestic market and regulation
The relationship between domestic regulation and the market: whether it is extremely Thai.
We often feel that regulation is a bad thing for the Crypto market. Is it really? I personally participated in the market in 14 years. Actually, there were corresponding regulations in China at the end of 13 years from 14 years. At that time, Bitcoin was a commodity, but Bitcoin was not a currency, and then various financial institutions were banned from participating. It was bad news at that time.
Then, in 15 years, 16 years, and 17 years, basically every domestic supervision and supporting relationship is not a good thing. Most people think so, but is it really the case?
In fact, every time domestic regulation pays close attention to some of the so-called chaos we see, prices do fall short-term. But it ’s very fast . I believe you already feel it. In November and December of last year, the domestic regulation of the Crypto market was very strong. Indeed, everyone felt bad at that time, but now you can see if it is clean. Is it extremely Thai? So I believe that domestic regulation, including global regulation, will not stop in the future, and it will become more and more stringent.
However, each supervision may have a short-term negative impact, which is good news in the long run. The reason is that the stricter the supervision, the cleaner the water will be squeezed, and the more standardized the market will be.
The relationship between Wuhan pneumonia and the market
Next, let's talk about the relationship between Wuhan pneumonia and the market.
It was just mentioned that regulation was not a good state for the entire market at the beginning. We can regard this negative impact as a stress test. System stress test. After this negative stress test is tested to the end, do you think you can go down? Can only go up.
No, it means that we have presented all the bad news and all the negative factors, and the whole exhibition is exposed to everyone, and there will be no worse, but only better.
We are now thinking about the possibility that various catering industries may fail, and when the tourism industry is going to fail, we are actually thinking about how we can make him evolve, iterate, and become better.
If we can deal with this matter in Wuhan pneumonia, of course, we will certainly deal with it, we will certainly resist the past. What happens when you carry it? Will develop very well. If you think about it, the whole SARS period did have a very strong pressure on the Chinese economy at that time. After that, it was extremely Thai, and it went very well. After 2003, it was a bull market for more than 10 years.
So I personally think that the Wuhan epidemic is also a stress test for the Chinese economy . It is a true bottom stress test. Once the bottom is formed, it will only be stronger than the bottom, and it will form a new high. This is my personal strong optimism about the Chinese economy.
What is the trend of Bitcoin this year?
Speaking of some of my subjective judgments, I must say before and after that, investment must be cautious and the market is risky. My subjective judgments are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
What will happen to Bitcoin this year? I am very optimistic about the trend of bitcoin this year, but it must be noted that the bull market will not be a full bull year, and it is impossible to run from January to December. Even so, I am personally very optimistic that Bitcoin will still be able to rise from beginning to end in 2020, and the rise will be very large.
I personally expect him to touch at least $ 20,000. I don't know when it happened, but I would expect him to hit 20,000 earlier this year. After that, everyone must be very careful, because according to historical experience, the first time he touches the front high, he will smash down. So first expect to reach USD 20,000, and quickly reach USD 20,000.
Is the halving market just beginning or in progress or is it almost over?
The end of the halving is in May, and now it is February. From the timeline, it should be a state that has not reached half, and it is started in January. If the end of the halving market is drawn in May, it is just the beginning, but if the end of the halving market is in March, it is half. If it's in April, it's not halfway yet.
So the optimistic estimate is that the halving is just the beginning. The pessimistic estimate is halved, and no matter how pessimistic, I think it will never end before March.
Will ETH move better than Bitcoin?
If you ask if Ethereum is trending better than Bitcoin, then you can see if the price of Ethereum's price on Bitcoin will continue to rise? If you think it will go up, it is better than Bitcoin. I personally think it will go up, but everyone should pay attention to the recent rapid increase, and be careful of the pressure of callback.
Actually, it has been rising recently. You have to ask me what I bought recently. I really do n’t know.
If 10 weeks ago, I could say a lot, but now it has started to rise, it will be difficult. Very few coins have yet been discovered. You have to wait for the callback before buying, and take a break.
So when will this round of callbacks take place? It depends on whether you are short-term, medium-term or long-term.
Anyway, there will definitely be a callback when 20,000 is reached. I am 100% sure about this , and there will be a terrible callback. Whenever there will be a deep pullback before 20,000, take care of yourself. Anyway, if you go short in the recent period, be careful. I personally do not recommend going short in a bull market. But everyone must be careful when 20,000, it will be crazy at that time. Because there will be an expectation called high-breaking high.
If you look at history, including the recent A-shares, many stocks are close to the previous high, or when they are about to break through the previous high, it slammed down.
Therefore, including the last time Bitcoin's RMB denomination in 2016 was to break through 7000 ~ 8000, it was also very fierce, so 20,000 should be very careful.
What's new about Ethereum's valuation system?
In fact, I want to say that A shares or US stocks can also be used, and in recent years, they have become more and more inclined to fund trading.
What do you mean? This is the conclusion of our internal discussion. Trump, he will regard U.S. stocks as a part of his political achievements. You see that U.S. stocks have performed very well, but are the targets of U.S. stocks really still developing at an index level?
We all know that this is not the case, but why do US stocks perform so well? Because the Federal Reserve is constantly printing money, everyone tries to do a repo. For example, Apple has a lot of money. Everyone knows that his way to support the past is to use the money to buy back his own stock and let the stock go up.
Is it particularly familiar? So we will find that whether it is A shares, U.S. stocks, or Tokens, it actually has its own rules.
The good point is his own law, and the unpleasant point is that a Ponzi rule is included.
Of course, we would think that the word Ponzi is hard to hear. If you look carefully at any secondary market, it does have its support side, and it also has its Ponzi or bubble side. The fundamental layer has been sustained. When the market money comes, the bubble can enlarge its valuation.
Ethereum is actually the same, when the fundamentals of Ethereum can hold it.
What are the fundamentals of Ethereum? What are its strongest fundamentals? It is beginning to challenge Bitcoin.
I recently discovered that many people have begun to compare Ethereum with Bitcoin. Everyone said that Ethereum is not only a smart contract, but also currency, and currency can do better than Bitcoin.
why? You have to increase its valuation space in order to be able to challenge Bitcoin's valuation . In order to approach the valuation of Bitcoin, we must break its imagination into Bitcoin's imagination, and it must be made into a currency.
At this time you will need a new valuation system to tell a new story. Because the story of smart contracts is not sexy enough, you have to tell the story of currency, and then the story of Defi. Adding a few stories together, you will feel pretty good, both Defi, NFT, and Bitcoin.
When everyone thinks the story is OK, and its infrastructure fundamentals are OK, it will become a reality. It's just that I haven't reached that position yet.
A typical example is in various exchanges. We look at Binance's currency exchange. Although the USDT trading volume is now large, the larger trading volume still comes from the Bitcoin trading pair . So when Bitcoin's position has not been replaced by Ethereum, it is useless to call it a currency call. This is my opinion.
Anyway, it's a new story. This story, in conjunction with the NFT, Defi, and self-finance we just mentioned, has a chance to raise the valuation of Ethereum.
If exchanges usher in strong supervision, the impact on Bitcoin
Strong supervision is not to suppress or eliminate it . Strong supervision definitely allows you to deposit and withdraw funds, except that deposits and withdrawals will require more standardization.
I think tax collection is a more annoying thing than deposits and withdrawals. Of course, hate is temporary, because taxation means compliance and legalization.
Collecting taxes is everyone sharing the cake together. Now that you have the cake, of course you want to make it better and better, just like the tobacco industry, one of the country's pillar industries. So when it will be possible to collect taxes, it will be great news.
Strong supervision is actually the same. Strong supervision means that this thing is very big and you have to go to strong supervision, which shows that it is good news. As I just said, is there any domestic regulation?
So after the formalization, if large funds come in, will Bitcoin still fluctuate significantly in the future?
The answer is yes, and the fluctuations will become more and more irregular.
When you look at an asset and big money comes in, the first stage is definitely to drive it up because you are going to enter the market and buy it. Until a certain stage of purchase, large funds will use derivatives to make money. You don't know what direction to make money from derivatives. Last year, we must have felt deeply, and Bitcoin is now more and more going in this direction.
Do you think that after 20,000, it will go all the way to 50,000? what you do not know. After 20,000, he may enter the stage of making money with large-capital derivatives, even now. It's just that it's in a state of mad cow, and you might as well go in one direction with derivatives and make money easier.
After 20,000, you do n’t know that it goes up and down, because he can make money in both directions, and he can make money with derivatives. So there will be fluctuations and you don't know the direction.
Digital currency is moving from niche to the general public. Is there still a chance of a small market value currency breaking out?
I think so. And it will be a new opportunity.
Last year, I personally was very disappointed in the process of exploring the outbreak of many small currencies, and the market did not give good results.
The reason is that there was no good target last year, not that there were no good points for the outbreak, so there were no good targets for many outbreaks last year, so after they went up, they came down, even worse than before.
In this year, we will find a new situation emerged. If this year rose to 20,000, we all know that once it hits the previous high and broke through the previous high, it is really a bull market. And this real bull market will bring some new events. If it is only bitcoin, I think it will be a bitcoin hedging demand of about 20,000.
Of course, I do not hope that this will cause Bitcoin to rise to 20,000. I even hope that the number of Tokens in full bloom will exceed 10,000 or even 100,000, and even a future such as 1 million Tokens will emerge. Coming closer and closer.
This is why I will talk about NFT, DEX, Socil money. In this direction, I have the opportunity to bring a variety of alternative assets and self-finance to everyone, including many game assets. The number of these assets can be very large.
It is worth noting that the huge number does not mean that you can make money in it. These are two different things. For example, if there are 1 million targets in the market, do you think you can make money by buying one randomly?
Because it is long tailed, you do have something explosive in the long tail. How do you find it? Very difficult and getting harder.