SheKnows opens new year's debate | Crypto prophets, show you clearly 2020
On February 14th, the SheKnows New Year's New Year's Debate was too exciting. The theme of this issue is "Crypto Prophets, show you 2020", and talked about 4 topics that are most interesting to people in the circle: What do you think of the Bitcoin market? Can Ethereum rise? Who should pay attention to on the public chain circuit? How about investment and financing and market heat?
This edition of SheKnows is hosted by Babbitt senior editor Nobita, and invited 4 guests. They are one of the most active content creators in the crypto circle, and they are also on the list of Babbitt's 2019 annual author list. They are:
Chen Haonan, Wantang Road: Babbitt columnist, working at Pancheng Capital, responsible for equity investment in the blockchain field.
Johnson: Babbitt columnist, chief analyst of TokenInsight, dual master's degree in finance and computer, once listed on the head of the overseas branch of a global head exchange, doing small currency and mining research.
- DeFi P / E: Valuation of DeFi Tokens
- CT detection of new coronary pneumonia with AI
- How to become a Bitcoin Core contributor? The most complete Bitcoin developer guide is here
Cai Kailong: Babbitt columnist, financial commentator, senior researcher at the Institute of Financial Technology of Renmin University of China.
Old Man Suo: Babbitt column author from the Satoshi community. RealSatoshi is a media active in the Chinese crypto community.
On the journey of digital currency, we are all night vision, sometimes full of hope, sometimes self-doubt. Fortunately, I was accompanied by you on the way to the starry sky. Here is a quote from Dickens, thanks to all the authors of Babbitt!
"In the days when carriages were still popular, it took a night. There were only two of us in the carriage, so I didn't find it annoying at night. I spent the night, and I think many people also have the same situation. It will be the same as me. My trip seems to be full of hope for a while, and hopeless for a while. Sometimes I feel that I will do something good for others, and sometimes I wonder why I have such thoughts. I suddenly feel that I went there for granted, and suddenly felt unreasonable. I thought about what happened to Richard, what I would tell him, and what he would tell me; these thoughts took turns with the mood just now Tossing in my heart. "— Dickens
Topic 1: Bitcoin market trend
SheKnows: Let's talk about the topic that is currently most concerned-Bitcoin, what do you think is the reason behind Bitcoin's breakthrough of $ 10,000?
Old man: Bitcoin has captured 99% of the value of the industry, and $ 10,000 is just the beginning.
I think of the industry-famous fat protocol theory proposed by Joel Monegro. The main theory of the Fat Protocol article is that most of the value in the blockchain field will be captured at the protocol layer. This theory is usually applied to public chains. But in fact, Bitcoin is indeed the biggest example of a fat protocol paper.
Regarding Bitcoin, you need to ask yourself two questions. First, is the current value of Bitcoin itself overvalued or undervalued. Second, what is the ecology of Bitcoin. At present, whether it is Lightning Network, Blocksteam Liquid, or other businesses built on Bitcoin, it is difficult to see any success today.
Bitcoin eats the value of everything above it, and everything else fails to capture value without exception. So the question becomes, are we just investing in Bitcoin or are we investing in a company built on it. Our answer is that we look very much at Bitcoin itself.
Bitcoin enthusiasts often joke that all the rise and fall of altcoins (Pump and Dump) will be the fuel that fuels Bitcoin. There are many fundamental factors behind Bitcoin's breakthrough of $ 10,000, but above many fundamentals, it is because Bitcoin has captured 99% of the value of the industry. The main theory of bitcoin value capture remains unchanged, so bitcoin has been rising. $ 10,000 is just the beginning. For long-term Bitcoin investors, patience is enough. Chen Haonan of Wantang Road: Analysis from three aspects: Bitcoin itself, external environment, and historical performance.
I talked about this topic in a recent column, and I will add and summarize it today:
1. From the perspective of Bitcoin itself, the computing power is at a new high. The price and computing power of Bitcoin are in a positive correlation. The price and computing power will lead each other and catch up with each other. More
2. Looking at the external environment, the era of low global interest rates is approaching, and scarce assets are ushered in funding opportunities; the advantages of international tax havens are no longer, and the "physical offshore financial center" caused by the hidden needs of assets is forced to move to the "virtual "Onshore financial center" transfer; conflicts in the international situation, such as the US-Iraq conflict, and many other factors have made Bitcoin's "hiding" phenomenon more and more obvious;
3． From the historical performance, according to the market performance of Bitcoin halving in the past two times, there will be a good market before and after Bitcoin halving; history will not simply repeat, but it will never be absent. Cai Kailong: The recent market can be analyzed from three aspects: macro, industry and micro.
From a macro perspective, the global economy has not changed much in the last two months. The only change is the positive impact of the easing of the Sino-US trade war on the global economy and the negative impact of the epidemic on the world economy. It is currently difficult to assess. The macroeconomic environment cannot explain the Bitcoin rush to $ 10,000.
Industry, the first half is mainly halving the market. The main BTC is expected to be halved, and the secondary factor: BSV \ BCH \ BEAM and other popular currencies are halved, and there is an upward expectation.
At the micro level, the most important reason for this rush to 10,000 yuan is that the destruction of the platform currency led to the rise of the platform currency. Previously, the mainstream currency driven the platform currency. This time, when the bitcoin was trading sideways, the platform's breakthrough generated linkage. The second reason is that the epidemic triggered everyone's risk aversion. Although Bitcoin is not the best risk aversion tool, the public still holds such a psychology, so objectively it will cause the price of coins to rise. Johnson: This is a manifestation of value. I personally think that Bitcoin is "infinitely" bullish for a long time.
From the bear market in 2018 to the market recovery in 2019, the ecosystem of the entire market has changed a lot in the past two years, such as the entry of institutions, the listing of Canaan, and the development of the derivatives market.
More and more investors are interested in the market of Bitcoin or digital assets. Bitcoin's breakthrough of $ 10,000 again is a reflection of the value of the entire ecosystem and has injected confidence into the market.
This time, I am also observing some important data, such as some data in the options futures market, which can reflect what the market expects of the future price of Bitcoin. The futures options market can well reflect whether the market's future will be bearish or bullish. SheKnows: Try to use this as a starting point to describe the prospects of the crypto market in 2020. Do you think we are in a bull market, and if so, where are we? Compared with your judgment at the end of 19, has it changed?
Johnson: I think it's early in the bull market.
There is not much difference from the judgment at the end of 2019. It was predicted that it had gradually entered a bull market.
Old Man Suo: I also think it is in the early stages of a bull market.
The market often starts unknowingly, rises in hesitation, and ends at the time of faith. I think we are already in the beginning of the bull, but we do n’t even know it. After two years of the bear market, everyone's risk appetite has been minimized, and they have doubts about everything in the market. The bear market has educated investors in the market with no temper. I think we are at this stage at the moment, imagination is minimized, and we are pessimistic about everything. It is under such a situation that the market starts slowly and unknowingly.
Cai Kailong: Look cautiously.
The definition of a bull market is a steady and continuous increase in the general direction. At present, it can be said that a bull market has emerged, but the volume is not very large. The future trend will continue to look for directions, and other indicators need to be confirmed. In 3 months, this expectation is a positive and slow super strong release. But don't forget that the economic impact of the epidemic will inevitably spread to the currency circle. If the epidemic severely affects the economy and finance, then the tight flow of funds will cause blood loss in the currency circle, and the possibility of a sharp correction will not be ruled out.
Chen Haonan, Wantang Road: At present, there is a high probability that the rally is in the primary stage.
In my early 2019 column, the judgment of the market in 2019 was "recovery and recovery." Now talking about 2020, I think it is more appropriate to use the word "small orgasm"; I have not seen the latest Garter curve, but I It is believed that the blockchain has come out of the "trough period" of foaming, and is advancing on the road of "bright period" that is growing steadily. At present, there is a high probability that it is in the initial stage of the rally.
SheKnows: In this round of halving, is it possible to see the almost crazy state like 17 years? How is it different from that year?
Chen Haonan of Wantang Road: Compared with 2017, it is not crazy, and now there are more platform coins and derivatives.
Compared with 2017 now, crazy is still out of the question. Before the "94" in 2017, the ICO was very crazy, it was basically a second light, it couldn't be grabbed at all, and it was almost stable and not lost. When it ’s crazy, friends circle all kinds of currency gods, and the news of altcoins can rise 100% that day;
Early 2017–Before "94", mainstream currencies such as Ethereum and Bitcoin have all experienced very large gains. Everyone is optimistic. After "94", altcoins fell to the bottom, and Bitcoin and Ethereum ran wildly, and then It was the turn of the altcoin group, and the madness of many altcoins continued into the first half of 2018.
Therefore, from the perspective of market evolution, it should still follow the rhythm of the mainstream leader hitting new highs-second-line followers-the magic dance of the cottage group. This is a process of capital allocation from large to small, not only in the currency circle, but also in other markets. .
Compared with 2017, now, 1. There are more platform currencies, and the trend of platform currencies is very relevant to the market, just like index funds; 2. There are more and more derivatives on the market, and investors can be very convenient. The above are different; the same I think, in the old saying of Wall Street: "Speculation is as old as mountains and rivers!"
Topic 2: Ethereum and DeFi
SheKnows: 2020 is not only a half year for Bitcoin, but also a key year for Ethereum 2.0 upgrade. ETH futures may also be approved by the CFTC this year. Do you think this year will be the year of the rise of Ethereum?
Johnson: Of course, ETH is currently undervalued by the market.
The ecology on ETH has undergone a blood exchange after the baptism in 2018 and 2019. The bull market of Ethereum in 2017 is due to ICO, so our bull market of Ethereum may be due to the implementation of ETH 2.0 technology, DeFi, Dapps, Some application values of Non fungible tokens have been tapped. Although DeFi in 2019 is very small and its value is not reflected, we think that in 2020, some of the value of DeFi will be reflected in the market. At TokenInsight's internal team meeting in January, we concluded that ETH is currently undervalued by the market.
Chen Haonan of Wantang Road: I am also optimistic about the upgrade of Ethereum.
Ethereum's sharp decline in the past was mainly because the ICO flood could no longer be sustained, the financing function was replaced by the exchange-led IEO; and the daily activity of DAPP was lower than expected. In fact, the fundamentals of Ethereum are still relatively good. As the king of the public chain, no project has the strength to surpass Ethereum.
Moreover, Ethereum itself has been evolving iteratively. If the upgrade of Ethereum 2.0 is successful, the performance can be greatly improved and it can support unlimited expansion. Web3.0 is still worth looking forward to. Only Ethereum is able to challenge the Internet giants. ICO is not the original intention of Ethereum. Ethereum tokens as "digital oil" depend on the development of the Ethereum ecology. Everyone pays more attention to the development of the ecology after the performance of Ethereum is improved, such as Defi, DAPP and so on. Mr. Suo: I believe we understand more than 6 months ago why Ethereum is still far ahead. And how difficult it is to defeat Ethereum.
Speaking of Ethereum, we have to talk about the public chain war and the Ethereum killers. With Tezos, Algorand, Hashgraph, these new public chains have been launched, the public chain war has begun 6 months ago. So far, every Ethereum killer who reached the front has been beheaded. I believe we understand more than 6 months ago why Ethereum is still far ahead. We also know how difficult it is to defeat Ethereum.
We clearly see that one of the most important applications in the cryptocurrency world is DeFi. This trend is very obvious today, even though it was just emerging a year ago. The fact about DeFi is that it works only on Ethereum. DeFi has a strong network effect, which means that it is difficult to migrate a DeFi ecosystem to a chain with no other assets, no interoperability, and no high-quality collateral.
Almost everyone is built on Ethereum because it is the only game in town and it is where the money is. People build on Ethereum because it's where the money is. If you want to build a product that will bring you money, you have to choose Ethereum. It's really hard to imagine, for example, that Telegram can gain a strong developer ecosystem when it enters the cryptocurrency field.
There are many platforms coming soon, they have better designs, better architectures, and more scalable products to market, but the most important thing they need to prove is how they can win developers.
On the other hand, Ethereum is developing a more robust and reliable layer2 solution. Companies like Matter Labs are actively exploring technologies such as ZK Rollups and Optimistic Rollups.
In 18 and 19 years, we heard too many negative voices of emptying Ethereum: the delay of ETH2.0, the team sold ETH chips, the old bank Layer2 technology was completely bankrupt, the ecological contributors left, and the DeFi ecosystem flourished and There is no promotion of the price of ETH. After Ethereum lost its ICO function, it looked like a castrated eunuch. Everyone is surprisingly singing empty. But Ethereum still has a strong advantage. All this leads me to believe that now is the opportunity to buy Ethereum. Cai Kailong: There are many uncertainties in ETH futures and Ethereum 2.0. It is too early to talk about the rise of Ethereum.
I specially poured cold water on everyone. I am not short on Ethereum. I agree with many facts about the Ethereum mentioned by the guests above, but if I consider Ethereum this year as a rising year, it is based on 2.0 and CFTC approval of ETH futures. .
Let's start with ETH futures. The uncertainty is very high. Although CFTC's support for digital currencies has always been very high, 2 months ago, CFTC also stated that it depends on the positioning of ETH. If ETH is positioned as a commodity, the corresponding commodity futures can be issued by the CFTC, but if ETH is positioned as an equity or a security, it is regulated by the SEC.
In other words, the positioning of ETH will become the key. Previous discussions generally believed that ETH is a commodity, but due to the emergence of issues such as staking in Ethereum 2.0, ETH is likely to be positioned as equity. Therefore, the issue of ETH futures is not a high probability event. On the other hand, assuming that ETH is positioned as a commodity, there is still a very big obstacle before CFTC launches ETH futures, which is V god. CFTC will definitely consider the possibility that V god may manipulate ETH futures. A few months ago, V God deleted a lot of Twitter, which may be the reason. Once in the evaluation stage, V God's Twitter may affect the price of ETH futures.
Let's talk about ETH2.0. The launch time was originally set for January 2020, and then changed to an undisclosed date in the second quarter of 2020. Developers now set their sights on the network's fifth anniversary, July 30, 2020. The slow extension of the upgrade caused by Ethereum's architecture is widely acknowledged, so it is not ruled out that it may be delayed.
It is certain that 2020 will be a key year for Ethereum, but it is too early to say the year of the rise of Ethereum. Moreover, the rise in the ETH price does not mean that Ethereum is necessarily good, depending on whether the value of Ethereum itself is reflected or because of the linkage caused by the rise of Bitcoin and other exchange platform currencies. SheKnows: The most watched dark horse in 2019 is DeFi. What do you think of the development prospects of DeFi in 2020?
Cai Kailong: Defi is gradually improving overall, the ecology is becoming more and more mature, and the body is growing healthily. There are the following points.
Maker launched multi-collateral Dai (MCD) at the end of 2019, introducing collateral other than ETH and increasing the Dai Deposit Rate (DSR). This "risk-free interest rate" for Dai gives users a better mechanism to maintain Dai The price is stable, maintaining its status as the king of DeFi stablecoins. These new features will attract more capital inflows, add new collateral, and stimulate growth. Of course, the recent general rise in currency prices is also one of the important driving forces.
Don't underestimate DSR, the risk-free interest rate. Its role is similar to Libor (not Libra) / US Treasury / Bank of China's benchmark interest rate. It becomes the benchmark interest rate for the currency circle and the link between the digital asset industry and traditional financial relations.
The total transaction volume of DEX in 2019 exceeds US $ 2.3 billion. The top three are IDEX (US $ 845 million), Oasis (US $ 491 million), and Kyber Network (US $ 375 million), which together account for 74% of DEX's total transaction volume. . It is estimated that DEX will grow at a faster rate in 2020, and liquidity is assisted by aggregating liquidity providers (Kyber). Johnson: From the initial concept to the realization of basic functions, DeFi will accelerate construction in 2020.
From the beginning of the concept, DeFi gradually realized some basic functions, such as deposit accounts, decentralized exchanges, and oracles, by 2019. By 2020, we believe that DeFI will be built more quickly and continuously, and the value will gradually be reflected in the market. There will be many dark horses of the year. For example, the development of DAO in 2020 will be very rapid. Privacy protocols on Ethereum such as aztec protocol, DEX, financial derivatives on DeFi, and standard benchmark interest rates will gradually appear in the market.
Mr. Suo: Generally speaking, DeFi has been doing that for so long and has not brought Buy Pressure.
Just a few days ago, the value of ETH locked into the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem reached $ 1 billion. The trend of Ethereum as a decentralized financial platform is already very obvious. But at the same time, Ethereum's DeFi has some problems.
Overall, DeFi has been around for so long and has not brought Buy Pressure.
From a different perspective, if the ether is now $ 1,000, DeFi is not needed at all. Because the ETH that is locked in is active or passive "tethered". Active = Believe in the long-term value of Ethereum and actively hold it; Passive = Buy at a high point, really quilted. If the price of ETH is high, the choice for both will be to sell coins.
But what DeFi does is not to open working capital for locked-up users, he wants to Banking the unbanked. DeFi must seek an inflow of incremental funds, not a left-handed right-handed game in the original ecology. The first is that the value of ETH currently locked in the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem is only $ 1 billion, which is not worth mentioning compared to the ETH demand during the ICO crazy period. In this respect, Ethereum's DeFi road still has a long way to go. Chen Haonan, Wantang Road: DeFi is a very promising circuit, but it must be connected to the real economy.
DeFi is a very promising circuit, but if it is to become a big circuit, it must go out of the circle and have a connection with the real economy; otherwise, Defi only provides a liquidity protocol or platform for speculators of digital currencies. The pattern is small, and not much. Compared with centralized finance, Defi has a great advantage in the cost of trust. Nowadays, P2P development is not good, it has its own defects, and there are external environmental factors. How can Defi develop to inclusive finance? The economic connection requires practitioners to explore and work harder. It also requires the improvement of cross-chain technology, blockchain identity and credit reporting system.
Topic 3: The Most Potential Stocks to Watch
SheKnows: Please share 1-2 projects you are following recently, and why did it impress you?
Johnson: I share two projects, Handshake and Ravencoin.
A new project, Handshake, I have been paying attention for half a year to a year. The mainnet has been online for more than a week and is a mining coin. I focus on this project because there isn't any 1CO / 1EO, and then it's mainly community projects. The concept of Handshake is to build decentralized network domain names such as decentralized .com, .org. Because I am a miner myself, I pay more attention to new coins. The concept of handshake is very new and there are no well-known projects doing it. This is the main reason it moved me.
Another project is Ravencoin (RVN), which has been listed on head exchanges such as Binance. The reason it moved me was to use the technology of the Bitcoin network and develop a platform for Tokenised security, similar to the fact that ETH is the main platform of 1CO / 1EO, because of technical and architectural issues, Security tokens cannot directly look like ordinary 1CO / 1EO is posted on ETH. RVN solves the problems of technology and architecture. Of course, it is also developed by the community without any 1CO / 1EO. Mr. Suo: What I want to share is the Tezos project, and I have several advantages:
1. Among the major Staking currencies, the market value and daily transaction volume of XTZ are at the forefront, and the recent transaction volume broke a new high. Coinbase is the first currency to support pledges;
2. In the August 2019 financial report, the Tezos Foundation reported mixed assets of $ 652 million (August 19), which is a lot! BTC accounts for 61%, XTZ accounts for 15%, bonds in Swiss banks, ETFs and commodities 15%, fiat currency 6%, and other assets 3%;
3． Tezos' current annual inflation rate is 5.38%. Nearly 78% of the supply on the chain participates in Staking ("baking"). Currently, only over 15% of XTZ's circulating supply is held by exchange nodes. Of the proportion of the seven exchange nodes (that is, 15%), Coinbase has the largest share of 44.7%, Krakan 22.5%, and Binance 19%.
4. On the Internet, the total number of transactions per day has continued to increase slowly over the past year. It was 31,000 in January 19 and slowly climbed to 40,000 in 2020. Since January 2019, the monthly active address (MAA) has continued to increase, from 3,000 in January 19, to 8,000 in January 2020. SheKnows: Maybe you can predict the dark horse in 2020, on which track will the probability be born?
Old cable: Cosmos and Polkadot cross-chain double male.
The cross-chain track is a general investment direction in the next 2-3 years. One of the hotspots is the cross-chain battle between two males. The battle between Polkadot and Cosmos seems fierce, but in the fierce battle, they have achieved each other. In the battle, they gave each other a greater consensus. The two cross-chain tracks have occupied the mind of the entire track. Cross-chain depends on these two, which has formed a huge gap with all other cross-chain projects.
In fact, the relationship between Cosmos and Polkadot is good. Instead, members of the community are comparing which one is better, Cosmos or Polkadot. I personally don't think it's necessary to compare and discuss whether the real opponent of Polkadot is Cosmos or not. It doesn't make sense.
The theme of cross-chain is the two of them, regardless of which one you really want to kill, what you are doing is also in line with a better theme hype. Don't be fooled by the technical design and brand image that everyone spreads (the so-called strong Boca is easier to capture short-term value, and Cosmos freedom is easier to build long-term value). A strong consensus between Polkadot and Cosmos has been reached. As long as the time comes and the subject matter is matched, the great cause is ready.
The investment on this track is also very simple. Cosmos and Polkadot are both of them. If you are not sure which one of them can run or whether both can run, then it is best to layout them. Don't bother with anything, once one party starts running out to establish a monopoly position, and constantly raise the monopoly to get the maximum benefit of the winner-take-all. Chen Haonan, Wantang Road: The domestic public chain on the head has rare development opportunities.
Regarding the prediction of the dark horse in 2020, I am still conservative, and I think it is more about breakthroughs in high-quality, head stock projects, such as the evolution of Bitcoin, Ethereum, innovation of head exchanges, and the increase of users outside the circle. Expansion; and the expansion of the head domestic public chain in the to G field. After all, our country emphasizes the need to be autonomous and controllable in the field of science and technology. The head domestic public chain has rare development opportunities.
SheKnows: Voice Beta is online today. What do you think of it and EOS? Chance to meet blockchain's first killer app in 2020?
Johnson: Voice is generally an interesting social experiment.
I remember when I was attending an event in Melbourne, Australia last year, I met someone who invested in the domain name behind Voice. He discussed with us the development of Voice in the future, how to govern, and expand influence. I think Voice is generally a very interesting social experiment. Our data from social software such as WeChat, Facebook and Twitter will be used for big data analysis by these companies. Voice redefines the data use rights of social software, returns these rights to users, and challenges the existing system. In terms of EOS, it has its own advantages and uses. What we want to see is that each blockchain project has its own targeted market. To find its own market, there should not be great competition between infrastructures. Reflect the true value of the blockchain.
2020 will be a year in which the blockchain industry is developing rapidly and realizing part of the value. Looking back on 2019, we have seen many applications, infrastructure, etc. being developed one after another. We think the real killer app (accepted and used by the public) is still a long way off. There are still some "fundamental" issues that need to be addressed in the entire blockchain field, such as user experience, connectivity issues in various applications / software, and current technology limitations.
Topic 4: Investment and Financing and Market Heat
SheKnows: Since the beginning of the year, there have been continuous news on blockchain financing at home and abroad, and more than 20 global financing information reported by Babbitt's "Chain Venture Capital" from January to February. What do you think of the blockchain investment and financing situation this year?
Chen Haonan, Wantang Road: The recovery of the primary market requires two conditions, the advancement of blockchain technology and the optimism of the secondary market.
On the whole, the secondary market and the primary market are very closely linked. I myself have personal experience. I believe many of my colleagues are also. If the secondary market recovers, investors in the primary market will also be optimistic; of course, this is not completely blind optimism. Many times the valuation of the secondary market and the primary market will be inverted, which will affect the investor's mentality and shots.
I think two conditions are needed for the recovery of the primary market in the future: 1. Blockchain technology progress and continuous application, and the quality of industry practitioners as a whole improves; 2. The recovery of the secondary market market is driving optimism; I have also recently talked with us Many project CEOs talked about seizing the next financing opportunity and maintaining a leading edge. Friends who are interested in investment are also welcome to contact me. We still have some very good projects ready for the next round of financing. Mr. Suo: The proportion of equity financing will continue to increase, and token financing will continue to decrease.
We will find that, in fact, the giant projects in the blockchain industry are often equity financing, such as Bitmain and Coinbase. These third-party service providers who sell water often do not have tokens but only equity. So institutional investment tokens are only a part, and a large part is equity investment. With the ICO's demise, a more obvious trend in the future is that the proportion of equity financing will continue to increase, and the financing of tokens will continue to decrease. For most ordinary investors, in fact, there are not many high-quality tokens that can be selected, which is a great test for investors.
Johnson: Blockchain investment and financing will change according to the changes in the digital asset market. According to statistics, 2018 and 2019, blockchain investment and financing is relatively cold. If compared with 2017, the amount of financing is not particularly high. If the entire digital asset market is very positive in 2020, we expect that blockchain investment and financing will gradually follow the entire market. Cai Kailong: Currently not optimistic about the primary market.
The total amount of cryptocurrency financing in January was US $ 20 million. Compared with the data of US $ 302 million in January 2019 and US $ 1.289 billion in January 2018, cryptocurrency financing remains sluggish. Among them, the financing of ICO and IEO is almost cool, and the amount of STO financing has been zero for 5 consecutive months. The only chance is that the rise in the price of the currency can be resolved. The rise in the price of the currency brings wealth effects, and the secondary market drives the first level, otherwise the primary market is still severe.
The most worrying thing is that the impact of financing on the epidemic has yet to be evaluated, uncertainty, financing exchange (meeting) roadshows have stopped, and staff resumption is also affected. The key is that investor confidence is also affected, especially the funds that may be generated problem. Fcoin has been a blow to confidence these days. In short, the primary market is currently not optimistic. SheKnows: Will the "blockchain fever" continue in 2020? What are the risks or detours that newcomers to 2020 need to know in advance and be cautious about?
Mr. Suo: In the long run, I think the blockchain boom will continue in the next 10-20 years.
Blockchain is the future trend, and we are greeted by an entire era of encryption.
Regarding risks and detours, I would like to share with you a passage that is widely circulated in the currency circle.
"Four avenues of the peak of life: 1, solid work; 2, spare money investment; 3, buy a long-term hold at the bottom; 4, eat and sleep on time." ——This is the survival rule of the currency industry, non-peerless masters must not ignore. (Ten days in the currency industry, ten years in the world, the cruelty is rare in ancient and modern times, keeping in mind that the law of survival can guarantee immortality)
Some people may think these four rules are too simple, but in fact, few people can abide by them. The so-called Avenue to Jane may be the case. Chen Haonan, Wantang Road: As a senior leek, I don't think it is necessary to re-stack altcoins.
The continuation is affirmative. After all, although the separation of blockchain technology is not a new technology, it is a cross-generation innovation combined. It is no less than Apple's redefinition of mobile phones, Tesla's redefinition of cars, electronics The redefinition of cigarettes by cigarettes … If we find common ground, that is, electronic and intelligent are already the general trend, then we return to Bitcoin, then Bitcoin also redefines gold?
In terms of risks and detours, as a senior leek, I do n’t think it is necessary to re-stock altcoins. The currency circle is a market that is looser than the overseas registered capital market. In the long run, it must follow good standards and get better and worse. Zero delisting. The investment still chooses the leader and has the core competitiveness; Johnson: The hotspots will continue. For friends who are new to the industry in 2020, I have five suggestions.
1. See more, understand more, analyze more, form a learning habit, pay more attention to Tokeninsight's industry research reports, analysis, rating, etc., can provide you with a lot of knowledge;
2. Financial markets are highly complex, and digital asset financial markets are more complex. Not only do you have to understand finance, you also need to understand some computer fundamentals, psychology, economics, and so on. I hope that everyone will not be confused by the so-called manifestations of some projects, and do more research and understanding;
3． Try to trade as little as possible, unless you are a professional trader. Many people who have experienced the bull-bear market in 2017-2019 or earlier should have a profound experience. It may be that the speculation of coins and the speculation of BTC / ETH in their hands are becoming less and less;
4. Ordinary users who have just entered the market may prefer the Buy & Hold strategy, because the digital asset industry is a highly volatile and high-risk financial market, and not everyone can become a trader. After getting familiar with the market, you can try some new games;
5． Don't try financial products such as the derivatives market and leverage. Learn more and study more to better understand how these complex financial products are played. Cai Kailong: I'm pouring cold water again. I don't see more potential hot spots with energy at present in 2020.
The recovery of the currency circle in 2019 is due to Libra, central bank digital currency, IEO, and model currency. It seems that this year, the market is halved, and the expected consumption of Eth2.0 is similar. No potential hotspots or sporadic ones are seen, but there is not enough energy.
But the beginning of 2020, as the year of Gengzi, was a disaster. In history, the Opium War of 1840, the Boxer Rebellion of 1900, the invasion of the Allied Powers of the Eight Kingdoms, and the Gengzi clause. The famine broke out in 1960. The United States and Iran almost went to war, Australian wildfires, African locust disaster, and China's outbreak. Newcomers should be careful this year. The black swan has frequent years, pay attention to risks, don't make money from luck in the past few years, and this year you lost money by strength.
SheKnows: The last open question, predict the annual headline of blockchain in 2020. Let's set up a special flag on this special day ~
Old man with cable:
In 2020, Cosmos and Polkadot both entered the top 10 market capitalization.
Chen Haonan, Wantang Road:
One year is too short. If 3-5 years, Bitcoin's market value exceeds gold is still worth looking forward to.
1. The altcoin mining will gain strong market attention, and the mining pool will begin to support altcoin's PoW and PoS mining. I am a miner of altcoins myself. From the early research of altcoins to today, I have realized a huge change in the market. More and more people have become more and more interested in valuable altcoins. The exchange also provides a variety of rich currencies for users to choose from. I still remember that only two major exchanges in the world supported altcoins, one Bittrex and one Cryptopia. Of course, Cryptopia has now closed down, and Bittrex's market share has been occupied by the current market's top exchanges.
2. More national central banks will launch digital currency projects that have explored the potential of blockchain technology. China will be a leader in this regard. The realization of China's DCEP and future exploration will bring great guidance to other countries and regions. Other countries or regions such as Australia have just recently released a white paper on blockchain national strategies, and Singapore is also gradually promoting its own national level blockchain projects.
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