Long sentiment skyrocketed, major exchanges USDT rushed

Recently, USDT "shortage" has become a hot topic in the market.

Some investors have reported that they cannot borrow enough USDT on Huobi, Binance and other trading platforms for long transactions. However, the major exchanges have not issued a USDT shortage announcement.

WX20200214-195300 @ 2x

(Huobi Lending Page)

At the same time, Odaily Planet Daily noticed that many exchanges converted the USDT borrowing interest rate from daily interest rate to one-hour borrowing interest rate, which seemed to intentionally reduce the interest paid by users.

In fact, the USDT shortage is related to the recent market boom. In the past two months, bitcoin has climbed from $ 7,000 all the way through, and broke through the $ 10,000 mark last weekend, which further stimulated the enthusiasm of trading in the market and investors have been long.

WX20200214-195343 @ 2x

(RenrenBit Asset Reserve Chart)

RenrenBit CMO Zi Cen told Odaily Planet Daily that starting on January 3, their start-up reserves have skyrocketed. "In the past month, more than 3,000 new BTC collaterals that users deposited into the RenrenBit platform for lending have been added." This also means that more investors are willing to hold BTC rather than sell BTC, and the market is strongly bullish. .

OKEx contract data also shows that the current long position is very emotional. In the past two months, the BTC L / L ratio increased from 1.82 on January 1 to 18.64, an increase of more than 900%; of which, the BTC L / L ratio reached a peak of 23.58 on 29 January.

WX20200214-195653 @ 2x

Under the strong demand for long positions, many people have chosen to borrow USDT for long BTC and other cryptocurrencies. Supply less than demand has also caused the USDT price to rise, and the over-the-counter premium continues to rise: from 97.04% on January 15 to the current 101.64%, an increase of 4.7%.

Here, we also need to explain one question: Why do users choose to trade with leverage, that is, borrow USDT to go long? Beware of changing disks.

First, compared to spot trading, leveraged trading will expand users' gains (or losses) and more meet the needs of risky users. Second, compared to delivery contracts, leveraged trading has no delivery time limit. As long as the position is not closed and the borrowing rate can be paid, the user can always hold the position. Moreover, compared to perpetual contracts, the rate of leveraged borrowing is lower.

We created USDT lending rates for several trading platforms and compared them with perpetual contract rates. It should be noted that, at present, Huobi, OKEx, Binance and other platforms, the borrowing rate is calculated based on 1 hour, we converted it into the daily rate; In addition, the perpetual contract fund rate is calculated once every 8 hours, And it changes in real time, we simplified it and converted it into daily interest rate. In the end, it looks like this:

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As can be seen from the above figure, the perpetual contract rate does exceed the borrowing rate, which is also the most fundamental reason why most people choose to borrow USDT to go long.

In addition, the above figure also shows that currently, OKEx borrows USDT at the highest rate, with a daily interest rate of 0.23% (annual interest rate of 84%), and Gate's perpetual contract rate, which can reach 0.1937%.

Although the USDT market has grown, Odaily's Daily News inquiry found that Tether has not issued a large-scale USDT. The latest issuance was on February 10th, when Tether issued an additional 25 million TRC20-USDT on TRON.

(USDT issuance / destruction, data from Dapptotal )

In the interview, Zi Cen also said: "RenrenBit still maintains an annualized borrowing rate of 12% to ensure that the market is not out of stock."

At present, BTC has been consolidating for five days near $ 10,000. How will the market outlook change? Kang Kang, a special analyst at Odaily Planet Daily, believes that there is a strong sentiment in the market, and investors should beware of changes.

At present, the market is more bullish, and the sentiment indicator has changed from neutral to greedy. According to OKex's contract big data, the basis of the quarterly contract has reached 4.39%, and the previous day's high reached 5%. At the end of the 17-year bull market, the base spread of the BTC quarterly contract at that time was up to 6%, indicating that the current bullish sentiment in the market is similar to the end of the 17-year bull market; from the point of view of the spot trading volume; although there has been a considerable amount of rising prices, However, since the beginning of January, it has been in a downward contraction, indicating that the upward momentum of the market has been weakening, and the pressure of more than $ 10,500 is expected to be difficult to break through in the short term. In the past bull markets of BTC, 10% to 40% have often appeared. Callback. At present, BTC has been rising for 6 weeks. Pay attention to the risk of callback.

The mainstream currencies represented by ETH have performed strongly recently, and most of them have risen higher than BTC. There is a considerable amount of money that can be released, and there is a phenomenon of price rotation. One is that mainstream currency assets have good liquidity and are favored by funds. On the one hand, it shows that the current lack of incremental funds in the virtual asset field, and the recent rise in mainstream currencies has gradually accelerated, and there is a possibility of a callback.

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