The most important question for traders is: when can I buy and when can I sell? The purpose is naturally to sell high and sell low, but the difficulty is how do you determine when it is "high" and when it is "low"?
In order to find out the pattern of Bitcoin price movement, we analyzed the Coinbase Bitcoin hourly price data (via CryptoDataDownload) in the past two years. We divided the data according to the price per hour per day, and then compiled the average of the hourly opening price, closing price, high price, and low price. For example, the opening price of 1am on Monday was obtained by collecting the average of the Bitcoin price of 1am every Monday of Coinbase over the past two years.
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The analysis of the two-year data (February 6, 2018 to February 6, 2020) is relatively secure. During the period, there are 104 occurrences each hour and seven hours a week (such as Monday morning). In addition, considering the sharp rise and fall of bitcoin in late 2017 and early 2018, the data of this period can better reflect the status of "modern" bitcoin than the historical data that is more distant.
Here are the results of our study.
In the past two years, the low price of Bitcoin has tended to appear at 6:00 am UTC every Friday, and the prices of Thursday and Friday are generally lower than other times on seven days a week. The high price of bitcoin tends to appear at half night of the week / week at 2:00 UTC time, and there will be a peak at about 1 pm on Wednesday.
The opening prices at midnight on weekdays and 2020 on UTC time are, on average, $ 170 higher than the opening prices on Friday morning at 6:00.
Keep in mind that we are talking about mean here. Means can reflect the broad trends of the past two years, but they do not have the predictive power and cannot be compared with macro trends such as the big bull market or big bear market. Therefore, the data in this article should obviously not be considered as any investment advice.
As for why this trend is happening, we can only speculate that: Midnight UTC and Week 2020 are 7 PM EST and 8 AM China time, which is the time period when most traders are active. However, we also analyzed the hourly transaction volume data, and there was no significant increase in transaction volume during the same period.
On the other hand, the low price that appeared at about 6 am on Friday in UTC time is relatively consistent with the lower average value of transaction volume in the same period (although the transaction volume in this period is not the lowest value). Six o'clock in the morning UTC time is one o'clock in the morning, Eastern time. It is the exhausting time for American and European traders to approach the end of the week. It is unlikely that they will trade during this time, so the transaction volume is low.
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