Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan talked about CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) and the events that may push up the price of Bitcoin in 2020 in an interview. He said that halving Bitcoin would be an important event, adding that while halving Bitcoin has affected its price in the past, it may not be one of the key factors driving asset valuations.
Greenspan also believes that the halving of Bitcoin will put more pressure on the central government to force them to launch their own CBDC. However, he believes that with the exception of China, most central banks do not have the resources and technical strength to launch their own CBDC in the short term. He also believes that the future CBDC may not completely replace Bitcoin.
The halving of BTC will cause a substantial increase in the computing power of the entire network, that is, the mining cost will further increase, which may cause the price of Bitcoin to continue to rise again. But why does Grennspan think that the halving of BTC is related to the issuance of CBDC by central banks? Here we analyze some possible reasons?
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- The market changed as expected, and the market ushered in key support
First, let's revisit what is Bitcoin? Bitcoin was originally an online virtual currency. It is characterized by decentralization, anonymity, can only be used in the digital world, a limited number, does not belong to any country and financial institution, and is not subject to geographical restrictions. You can exchange it anywhere in the world, you can exchange it into the currency of most countries, you can also use Bitcoin to buy some virtual items, such as equipment in online games, etc. As long as someone accepts, you can also use Bitcoin Buy items in real life.
So here comes the problem! Since its launch in 2008, bitcoin has appreciated from the earliest value of less than 1 cent to the current value of more than 10,000 US dollars, and the highest value during the period has reached more than 20,000 US dollars. In addition to speculative factors such as speculation, the real value behind it is further Stand out.
On the one hand, as a network virtual currency that can be circulated globally, it is truly completely decentralized, that is, the entire network is composed of users and there is no issuing institution, so it is impossible to manipulate the number of issuances. Because it uses a peer-to-peer network transmission mechanism and no issuer, Bitcoin transfers are tax-free, regulatory-free, borderless, cross-border, time-consuming, high-efficiency, and can also meet users' anonymity needs in the transaction process.
Not only that, bitcoin can be used for payment transactions and can be converted into the currencies of most countries. Compared to traditional fiat currencies in cross-border transactions, the process is complicated, the fees are high, and the time-consuming process is more convenient. And flexible.
On the other hand, with the further increase of global instability factors, the frequent occurrence of "black swan" events such as the escalation of the US-Iraq conflict, Brexit, and China ’s new crown epidemic, will have a significant impact on our history and society, making A series of chain negative reactions and even subversion in the market may result in stock market crashes, economic decline, unemployment tide, government bankruptcy, etc.
Because the total amount is fixed, the mining is difficult, and it can be traded in the market. The characteristics of non-states, individuals, and institutions are equivalent to gold. Bitcoin, which is called "digital gold", is a global issue and has a long history. In the context of moving the whole body, bitcoin, as a virtual digital currency, has greater advantages than gold, such as portability and divisibility, and is increasingly considered by many people to be a safe-haven asset investment. The attributes of "digital gold" are beginning to be recognized by more people.
Not only that, with the further highlighting of the value of bitcoin, more and more people are paying attention to bitcoin, investing in bitcoin, and using bitcoin, which may lead to further increase in bitcoin value. According to CoinMarketCap statistics, the current global market value of digital currencies is about 276 billion U.S. dollars, and the market value of Bitcoin accounts for over 64%, which is about 180 billion U.S. dollars. The global money supply has become the 11th largest currency in the world, but don't forget that Bitcoin has only been 11 years since its introduction.
With the approach of the Bitcoin halving market, its price may further increase, and then the value and influence of Bitcoin may further expand. In addition to digital currency trading platforms, more and more platforms and merchants have also started accepting bitcoin payments, such as German domestic energy giant Enercity, Russian Burger King stores, British computer sales giant SCAN, and Japan's large department store marui. American game giant Zynga, retail giant overstock, global computer giant Dell, global IT giant Microsoft and many more. So, when more and more ordinary people start to recognize and recognize Bitcoin, will the sovereign currencies of countries be affected? The answer is certainly possible!
Just in the context of the central banks of various countries beginning to actively develop and test their own central bank digital currency CBDC, Bitcoin also ushered in its third halving of the market, and the strength and influence of Bitcoin can not be underestimated. Bitcoin precedes Libra, followed by Libra. During this period, there were also the issuance of various virtual digital currencies. The authority and status of central banks and their sovereign currencies in various countries ushered in unprecedented challenges and opportunities in this digital era. Still able to maintain its uniqueness and leadership, it depends on the performance of the CBDC!
The last thing to say is that Bitcoin, as the first product born of blockchain technology, is controversial and has disadvantages, such as the fragile trading platform, long transaction confirmation time, large price fluctuations, and easy to provide a hotbed for illegal activities such as money laundering. Wait, but the technical value behind it and the positive significance of leading the entire world monetary system reform are beyond doubt, and its value trend is ultimately determined by market demand.
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