The last predictable halving bull market in the currency circle?

Bitcoin halving is coming, but this bull market is the last one that can be clearly predicted. Jiang Zhuoer has expressed his views on the upcoming halving. He believes that this halving will bring a bull market, but this bull market may be The last halving bull market that can be clearly predicted is mainly based on the following:

1) The demographic dividend has fallen sharply, and everyone who knows bitcoin already knows it;

2) The number of Bitcoins halved has dropped significantly;

3) The proportion of Bitcoin's total market value continues to decrease, and the blockchain market will be closer to markets such as US stocks and real estate.

Are these three reasons given by Jiang Zhuoer justified? We analyze one by one:

First: Regarding the sharp decline in demographic dividend, everyone who knows Bitcoin already knows that this means that the audience of Bitcoin may reach a considerable scale after this bull market effect, and there will be an explosion in the audience in the future. Sexual growth is no longer possible.

I have reservations about this. I think that an investment product just to let people know it is not enough to explain its popularity. It must be easy for ordinary people to trade .

A typical case is gold.

In China after 1949, before 1978, the people basically had no sales channels for gold, nor did the people have the purchasing power, so ordinary people could not buy gold normally.

In these 30 years, ordinary people only knew the preciousness and rarity of gold, but they could not perceive the preciousness and rarity of gold. A total of 960 million Chinese (the population of mainland China in 1978) are absent from the global gold market.

After the reform and opening up in 1978, China gradually liberalized the sales channels of gold among the people, coupled with the booming economy, the demand for gold broke out in the people.

Now that China has become the world's largest consumer of gold, the huge consumption of gold by Chinese residents has contributed to the rise of gold to its current price.

The fundamental reasons behind this are the gold repo stores and the strong consumer power of residents everywhere in big cities. These two elements are indispensable.

The consumption level of residents in China today is fully able to invest in Bitcoin, but there is no legal and convenient channel for investment realization. It is precisely because of the lack of legal compliance channels that there are certain thresholds for the purchase and sale of Bitcoin, and once the amount of funds is large, the realization of cash will become very troublesome. This is a huge obstacle to the large-scale popularity of Bitcoin in China .

This obstacle is not removed, and it is not only difficult for large-scale private funds to enter the market, but also for ordinary people to enter the market.

So as long as this obstacle remains, Bitcoin will still have a huge potential customer base in our country.

Second: the substantial decrease in the number of halvings, which means that the halving effect will no longer be obvious.

First of all, the halving this time will make the production volume of each block of Bitcoin farewell to the double digits and enter the single digit era. An era is completely over.

The miners are the first to be affected by the halving. The miners' earnings will drop by 50% after halving. In terms of miner costs, according to the current series of data, not only the computing power of Bitcoin continues to increase, but also the probability of the price of miners will continue to rise in the future, which means that the cost of miners will continue to rise.

The sharp decline in revenue and rising costs will inevitably lead to a higher unit price of Bitcoin to maintain mining. However, it is difficult to accurately predict how much the price of Bitcoin can reach.

In addition, because miners must sell part of bitcoin in order to maintain the daily operation of the mine, the biggest daily selling pressure of bitcoin actually comes from miners.

After the halving this time, the miners' income will be reduced, the bitcoin sold will be reduced, the selling pressure on the market will be reduced, and the price fluctuation of bitcoin will be reduced. The price of Bitcoin is likely to gradually stabilize.

Third: As for the proportion of bitcoin, as of the time of writing, the price of bitcoin was $ 9,700, with a total market value of $ 176.6 billion, accounting for 63% of the market value of the entire digital currency market.

At the peak of the previous bull market, the unit price of Bitcoin rushed to nearly 20,000 US dollars, and the market value once reached 320 billion US dollars. When it reached the peak of the unit price, its market value accounted for 54%.

In the last round of bull market, the price of bitcoin could reach USD 20,000, and the total market value accounted for only 54%. Why is this the case? The root cause is that in the last bull market, the ICO driven by Ethereum caused the market value of a large number of altcoins to rise, thereby driving the market value of the entire digital currency market.

However, this time we did not see the ICO effect. So far we have not seen any project that can recreate the wonders of Ethereum. Therefore, I do not think that altcoins will explode in this market, even if the market is halved. , But the market share of Bitcoin is still very high .

We assume that in this round of bull market, Bitcoin still accounts for 54% at its peak, and boldly assume that the price of Bitcoin can reach $ 50,000, then the total market value of the entire digital currency market will be $ 910 billion. What is the current market value of US stocks? Nearly $ 50 trillion.

The total market value of the digital currency market is still far from US stocks.

The above is a personal analysis of these three reasons given by Jiang Zhuoer. In subsequent articles, I will analyze with you the possible trend of this market.