Author: Jiang Chelsea
Core wanted to issue additional BTC. I predicted this one year ago. Weibo "After successfully preventing block expansion, guess what is Core ’s next goal, you ca n’t even guess" and the article "About Core stopped halving it, I'll add it. "
Recently Core came out again:
- Legal tender, gold and bitcoin: Three PKs in the form of three currencies, which is the most ideal?
- Babbitt column | Bitcoin: the power of life without borders
- Getting started with blockchain | How much does it cost for Nakamoto to dig bitcoin for the first time?
- Twitter Featured: Ethereum loyalty said ETH will become increasingly scarce; Bitcoin core developers talk about forked lessons
- On-chain data February scan: Coin price roller coaster, boosting on-chain data, is there a relationship between the two?
- Big talk BTC soaring logic Xu Kun believes that BTC rose to 10,000 dollars just around the corner
I send a full version of the above report and explain (prophecy):
1. Why does Core persevere in issuing additional (more than 21 million) BTC seemingly ridiculous?
Because Core believes that the BTC system requirements must be very low, so low that it can run on a microcomputer such as a Raspberry Pi , and can run on Tor (the onion anonymous network), so that the government cannot kill BTC. It is the highest goal not to be killed by the government, so the block must be locked at 1M and cannot be expanded .
Of course, taking the extreme anti-audit as the solemn purpose and making profits for Core's own Blockstream company ( the weaker the BTC main chain, the more valuable the sidechains such as Liquid developed by Blockstream ) are also one of Core's goals.
2. The BCH community believes that Bitcoin can only run on ordinary computers , so the block can now be expanded to the level of tens of MB, and the performance of ordinary computers has been improved year by year, and can continue to expand in the future.
3. Core locked 1M violated Satoshi's plan. Satoshi Nakamoto has set up a block expansion plan, and even the code has written examples . In this way, after the new coin is mined, the “very huge number of transactions on the chain (Satoshi Nakamoto)” can provide the fee to maintain the miners. (POW) The system is running .
4. Now that the BTC lock-up fee after 1M has surged due to congestion for a short time, it is an overdraft and a return to light. Under the ceiling of 1M, the maximum fee is ceiling (under the limit of 1M, the total number of transactions has a ceiling, and each transaction income also has a ceiling, such as a few hundred pieces. The highest users will choose off-chain transactions, the second layer network, etc alternative plan).
Therefore, in the future, the total market value of BTC may be 10 trillion U.S. dollars, and the total market value of mining is only 10 billion U.S. dollars (or even less). Spending one thousandth of the total market value can attack 51% of shorts and even kill BTC .
In contrast, although BCH's fees now seem small, there is no ceiling limit. In the future, according to Satoshi Nakamoto's plan, the number of users will continue to increase healthily . The story that 1.3 billion people across the country gave me a dollar each is obviously more reasonable.
5. The previous point can be calculated in detail: the transaction fee of 618 BTC in the last month, calculated based on the 3 years return of the mining machine, the total market value of the mining industry is 618 BTC * 12 months * 3 years = 22.248 million BTC, which is almost 21 million BTC One thousandth of the total , that is, after the SGD reward fee is halved to a small value, as long as one thousandth of the total market value of the mining machine can attack BTC.
6. After the 1M lockup, the only logical path is to issue additional BTC (stop halving) , so as to maintain the operation of the POW system. Core is a logic programmer. After their internal exchanges and discussions, they can expect to reach a basic consensus .
In fact, Grin, which is supported and anonymously developed by Core, is the experimental product of Core's halving policy. Grin and BTC both start at 50 coins per block in 10 minutes. The only difference is that Grin is not halved like BTC . Why doesn't Core's new Grin halve like BTC? You fine 🙂
Everyone has to make sense. If you don't expand the capacity or increase the issue, do you give a solution to the low income of miners? 🙂
7. When does Core want to stop halving? Just calculate it according to Peter Todd
Peter Todd believes that the 0.5% inflation rate is almost the same as 0%. 0.5% * 21 million total = annual output of 105,000 BTC = 2BTC per block of output. After halving in May 2020, the output per block will be 6.25 BTC and 3.125 BTC in 2024, which means that Core hopes to stop halving after 2024 (up to 2028) .
So this round of halving bull market is still there, don't worry about it 🙂
8. Of course, like in the battle for expansion, there will be different opinions within Core, but don't worry, people with different opinions will be fired . In the battle for expansion, the top five elders of the Core (5 developers who have permission to submit code) have 2 insisted on expansion-Gavin Andresen (the heir designated by Satoshi Nakamoto), Jeff Garzik (except after Satoshi Nakamoto and Gavin Andresen, The third largest contributor to the Bitcoin code), both of them were eventually fired by Core.
9. Some people also said that if Core wants to issue additional shares, let them go for additional shares. Multiple fork coins are welcome, and you can also sell more BTC. Sorry, this is not a simple multiple fork coin problem. You take a closer look at the process of capacity expansion. Who defines BTC? The development team defines BTC . If you are an exchange, do you dare to call a non-Core fork as BTC? When there is an error, the user must not be killed?
The safest approach for the exchange is to call the fork of the Core BTC, and the original fork is called BCC (Bitcoin Classic) .
10. Others say, can't the BTC expansion solve the knot? Sorry, BTC really can't expand:
First, when Core chooses to expand, it means that large blocks are the correct route, which is a major blow to BTC and will cause a large number of people to join BCH.
Second, the expansion is a hard fork, and BTC has to split again. Certainly some Core members stick to 1M, and the expansionists of Core have to fork out a new coin, and then they will find out, this is not what BCH did in 2017? Still forking a fart, can't I just go to BCH? Therefore, BTC cannot expand the capacity, and the expansion capacity of Core will continue to invest in BCH. This is a very simple logic problem.
11. Do you think it is ridiculous and impossible to break the 21 million cap? In 2015, everyone also felt that it was impossible to violate the expansion plan set by Satoshi Nakamoto. It was ridiculous to think that a transaction fee of hundreds of thousands of dollars was ridiculous , but all the impossibility and absurdity happened in 2017.
In the three-year expansion battle, Core did not budge, and realized the "impossible task" to stop Nakamoto ’s expansion plan step by step. Now they have made a plan and spend a few years in 2024. Or, in 2028, increase Bitcoin's annual inflation rate from 0% to 0.5% that "sounds trivial."
The Core party hurriedly scolded Core, otherwise it is ready to use annual inflation of 0.5% and over 21 million BTC.
"Bitcoin developers: 21 million supply cap is a" religious "belief, we may implement a hard fork of inflation"