QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin plummets, contract liquidation, ETF rejected … Futures market is beyond imagination (0227)

Abstract: In the short term, after the market fell, oversold was serious, and over-the-counter capital inflows increased, and a rebound mode has now begun. Follow-up observations continue to see if the rebound can be completed. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's futures turnover was more than double the spot turnover, indicating that the futures market dominated the market price in the short term. Last night, the "whole village hope" Wilshire Phoenix Bitcoin ETF was rejected or contributed to the decline.

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At 15:00 on February 27, 2020, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 13,143.85 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -5.57%, reflecting a rapid decline in the broad market. The total turnover was 1,408.487 billion yuan, a 24-hour change of + 19.19%, and market activity increased significantly. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 86.52 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 2.99%. The relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has clearly weakened; the Alternative sentiment index is 39 (previous value 41), and the market sentiment is expressed as fear; ChaiNext USDT OTC The discount premium index was reported at 101.80, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 0.32%, and the intensity of OTC fund inflows increased.

Analyst perspective:

Bitcoin started to fall from a high of $ 10,500 on February 13, and has experienced a continuous plunge in the past three days. It has now reached about $ 8,600, a drop of nearly 20%. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's turnover (excluding false transactions) was 753.129 billion yuan. Among them, Bitcoin's futures turnover was 518.604 billion yuan, more than double the spot turnover (234.811 billion yuan). Although the actual situation may be different, this is enough to show that the futures market dominates the market price for a short time.

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According to QKL123 data, in the past 24 hours, the turnover of OKEx BTC quarterly contracts was 16.726 billion yuan, with 24-hour closed positions of up to 349 million, nearly half of the 7-day closed positions. The 24-hour turnover of Huobi BTC's quarterly contracts was 56.286 billion yuan. The 24-hour liquidation volume was as high as 169 million yuan, while the short-term volume of nearly seven days was as high as 415 million yuan. At present, the average long and short position holdings of elites are seriously different on OKEx and Huobi. The former is 28.07% vs. 16.19% (the long position is dominant), while the latter is 39.60% vs. 60.40% (the short position is dominant). Short-term market may appear Transit.

Today's news, the Bitcoin ETF submitted by Wilshire Phoenix has been rejected and has been postponed more than four times. The reasons for rejection are similar to the past: "The applicant did not meet the necessary requirements, especially those related to market manipulation and illegal activities. Claim". The Bitcoin ETF has been a hot topic in the industry in recent years. However, since the first Bitcoin ETF application was rejected in 2014, the number of rejections has been close to 20 (excluding voluntary withdrawals), and the reason for the rejection is basically: there is fraud or price manipulation in the Bitcoin market. Its erratic prices and lack of regulated transaction volume will increase regulatory difficulty.

The market has been expected: the adoption of bitcoin ETFs will happen sooner or later, but the way to go is slower than most people think. However, the short-term market has fallen sharply. Could the "whole village hope" really be pinned on Wilshire Phoenix? Maybe, "the greater the hope, the greater the disappointment": The hope of using ETFs to fuel a bull market has become more remote. It is reported that the first application for the Bitcoin ETF was the brother of Winklevoss, the founder of Gemini trading platform (rejected twice), and will apply for a proposal again this year, which may rekindle the hope of hope.

First, the spot BTC market

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BTC broke the support level yesterday, the market panic continues to increase, the trend is not optimistic, or it will repeatedly test support near this position. In the short term, the RSI indicator shows that oversold is serious, and a hammer pattern appears on the four-hour K-line, and the market is likely to rebound.

Second, the spot ETH market

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There is also a hammer line in ETH, and the amount of energy released is also relatively obvious, indicating that the bulls have a strong counterattack momentum and mainly rebound in a short time. On the trend, Ethereum may quickly repair the upward trend on the 30th, and may follow the lead in counterattack.

Third, the spot LTC market

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LTC has fallen sharply today, and is currently returning to the vicinity of last month's turbulence range, and it has temporarily linked with Bitcoin.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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The volume of EOS this time was as high as that of January when it rose sharply, indicating that the main force has received a large number of chips, and the short-term linkage of ETH rebounded.

Five, analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC has improved, and it is expected to usher in the crazy bull market in the next one to two years. Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS can be configured at dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

BTC is approaching the 200-day moving average, which is expected to increase by halving, and there is still some room for improvement. Those who do not have heavy positions will increase their positions on dips.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Oversold and rebounded, selling low and selling high.

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Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin's competition in the market. It is used to measure the relative change in the relative price of Bitcoin to a package of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39. %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.