Opinion: Bitcoin breaks $5,000, not a bull market but in a rational regression period

According to data from qkl123.com , the market price of Bitcoin broke through $5,000 shortly today and has now fallen back to $ 4,870 .


(Data from: qlk123.com )

At this time, can we think that the bull market has come?

It can be said that it may or may not be said, depending on how you define the bull market and the bear market.

For example, DGroup founder Zhao Dong’s view is:


"Important things say three times: not a bull market! Not a bull market! Not a bull market! The bull market is ground out. The bear market tortures people bit by bit, grinding away the patience of the people, cutting the flesh of the meat, the solution of the solution, When the people who are walking are gone, the cows can come."

This argument is defined as the bull market is defined as the market driven by external funds, the actual market value is greater than the reasonable valuation stage, also known as the bubble stage, the market growth performance at this time will be very amazing, far beyond the current market performance, and continue The time will be very long.

In Zhao Dong’s view, such a bull market needs us to stay on it for a long time, and his judgment is about two years later.

So, for most new investors, is the 20%-50% daily increase that is common in the market today, can it be considered a bull market? Of course, we can think so, but the cycle is very short, and the market duration is not too long, because according to the current indicators, it is more like the funds in the market are pulling this wave .

What is the more accurate definition? We should define the continuous pull-up phase of the big cycle as a bull market, the continuous decline phase as a bear market, and the intermediate callback and consolidation phase as a rational regression period .

For example, in the previous cycle from January 2015 to November 2015, the market value of Bitcoin increased from 2.5 billion US dollars to 4.58 billion US dollars. This stage is defined by the bear market. Obviously, it is not appropriate. We should define it as Rational regression period (composed of the rebound period and the consolidation period ).


(Data from:woobull.com)

From November 2015 to the end of December 2017, the market value of Bitcoin rose from US$4.58 billion to a maximum of US$323 billion. At this stage, we can define it as a bull market.

In the period from 2018 to mid-December 2018, the market value of Bitcoin fell from a maximum of $323 billion to a minimum of $56.2 billion. We can think that this is a true bear market.

Since then, we have entered the rational regression period, which has rebounded from the bottom of 56.2 billion US dollars to the current 88.3 billion US dollars, an increase of about 57.1% , close to 83.2% of the previous cycle.

According to this cycle logic, Bitcoin has been separated from the bear market. It is now a period of rational return. Therefore, there will be a slight increase in this period, and there will be a slight decline. In general, it will remain in one. Within the scope, and this situation will last for a long time.

According to the previous analysis article , this rational regression period may last for another 6-12 months, but it may be longer as Zhao Dong thinks.

In this rational regression period, the holders of the money are the short-term earning coins or the patience to hold the coins. This is the problem that the benevolent sees the wise and sees the wisdom. In addition, the fixed investment is still a very good choice at present. As for the clearance or shorting at the low point, this will It will be the worst choice.

(Note: The above conclusions are based on cycle theory and related data)