The currency circle is a casino. Is technical analysis useful?

Let's start with a recent little story:

Today a friend asked me how the stock market has been recently? Then I said that I bought an index fund in Alipay. I looked at the fund and it has been rising continuously. I do n’t recommend that he rush in without having a basic understanding of the capital market. Think again, the amount of investment is not large, and I also need to contact this age to understand investment and financial management. Did you know the situation entered the currency circle?

This reminds me of another problem. Now that everyone is trapped in their homes, their income has plummeted, and the economy is expected to be bad after the epidemic. According to common sense, shouldn't you save money at this time, why should you invest? Now that I ’m back, I ca n’t make any money by staying at home with 100%, but I have a chance to make money when I invest. So at this time, many people are even novices entering the capital market.

Thinking back to the month when I was at home, I invested more than 10,000 yuan in the currency circle this month, more than the normal months in the past. Therefore, the impact of this epidemic on the currency circle funds needs to be dialectically identified. Today only network workers can make money, and investment also falls into this category. The current market trend of Bitcoin is pretty good. Once a new round of rally starts, I think the attractiveness of new funds may be greater than the normal month.

Back to the topic, the current currency circle is mainly divided into two schools, one is the dead school value school, and the other is the K-line technology school. When I first entered the currency circle, I was very obsessed with blockchain technology. I bought and bought promising projects. How can the blockchain revolution be shipped? When coupled with the operating community, I often encounter the technical analysis number of advertising, and I hate technical analysis.

After reading The Memoirs of Stock Masterpieces , I found that many people in this world really started off on the K-line, and later learned some related knowledge. In fact, most people's understanding of technical analysis is wrong, so it is necessary Break through this barrier.

I. Technical Analysis Uselessness

Since entering the currency circle, there has been controversy about the effectiveness of technical analysis, which has almost become a menstrual issue. Considering nothing worthwhile, he is regarded as the Bible. Many successful big Vs in the currency circle have devalued technical analysis and considered that there is no essential difference between technical analysis and coin toss.

The main thesis of the useless theory of technical analysis is that historical data is only a subset of market conditions, and it is logically impossible for a subset (past) to launch other subsets (future) or even the entire market condition.

At first glance, there was nothing wrong with the logic, because the future is unpredictable, but after I learned some technical analysis knowledge myself, I found that the argument is that the donkey's lips are wrong.

Review how the originator of the technical analysis, Dow , explained the relationship between the market's past and the future: history will always repeat itself, and what happened in the past will happen again in the future. However, Dow did not say that the future is a reenactment of the past, and Dow ’s technical analysts did not use past historical data to deduce the future market direction.

In essence, technical analysis is a methodology that addresses "what to do" rather than explaining "why." At this point you may still feel confused, so give an example to illustrate the nature of technical analysis.

Example of mother and baby:

A half year old baby. I froze, frowned, kicked, and waved my hands. You don't know what he is going to do. But his mother knows.

My mother said that she didn't like you with her lips, frowning when she was hungry, and wanted to go out. Alas, it's actually talking.

My mother figured out the meaning of the doll's kicking and frowning. This is the technical analysis.

In fact, technical analysis is a translator. There are too many factors that affect the price of currency in the market. You do n’t know which factor weighs the most. Technical analysis is to describe what is happening in the market by price. This is the value of technical analysis. Understandable language.

Technical analysis is not the same as predicting the future

Many people think that if they learn technical analysis, they can predict the trend in the next second. Sooner or later, they will dispel this idea. You have misunderstood the nature of technical analysis. It is not to predict the future, nor can it predict the future. Technical analysis is a description of the current trading status, used to interpret the market information expressed by volume, price, time and space.

The essence of technical analysis is interpretation.

Does it make sense to read? Of course, many people compare stock speculation and speculation to gambling. I don't deny that speculation is gambling. Is gambling really pure luck? Obviously, many people's understanding of gambling is also wrong.

Let me give you a personal example. My neighbor ’s uncle spent years at the Mahjong table and the poker table. This person has a characteristic. The winning rate of playing cards is far better than other people. As a result, nearby residents are not willing to talk to him. Playing cards at the same table. I asked my dad again, wasn't gambling luck? Why does he always seem to win. My dad said that he was very good at card counting , and he was extremely good at it. In fact, gambling and speculation still have something in common.

There are three types of people who play card games: Lao Qian, good luck, and will count.

There are three types of people who always win money in speculation: Lao Qian, good luck, will calculate.

The master plays cards. Although he does not know what cards are in your hand, he calculates the probability of the size of the opponent's hole cards by calculating the cards that have been revealed. Even observe the facial expressions of the participants at the poker table to interpret the meaning behind the expressions. Finally, you calculate your winning percentage and expected value based on the size of your hole cards, so that you can make the best decisions for yourself.

of course. There is far more indicator data to be referenced in speculation than gambling, but in essence, the most favorable decisions are made based on the current reality, not what will happen in the future.

Third, the conclusion

The premise of using technical analysis is to understand technical analysis. You can correctly understand technical analysis methods from the following aspects.

1. The technical analysis method is a mirror. History repeats itself, but it is by no means a simple repetition.

2. The analysis result of technical analysis is a probabilistic event, not an absolute event. In fact, it is the discrimination of a trend, and the essence of a trend is probability. It can be said that technical analysis is probability analysis.

In the end, technical analysis is definitely not a simplification of buying and selling indicators. Don't be misled by some big v-quotes in the currency circle. 99% of the existing technical analysis media numbers in the currency circle are garbage.