Is the halving market over? "Wolf Coming" staged again

A few days ago, I said that there must be monsters in A shares. Sure enough, these days, the friends who shouted for a bull market to buy funds have lost their sand sculptures. I usually like to shake the vibrato. In the past few days, I often get videos showing off the fund's income. When I check the data, the fund has been bought, so don't make fun of everything, otherwise you can't catch the shit.

This epidemic has caused severe damage to the economy. It is not to say that it is good for medical care, e-commerce, and live broadcast. This is a fallacy, because the rise of these industries comes at the expense of more industries. The global stock market is almost collectively diving, of course, the currency circle is not very comfortable. The sharp drop in Bitcoin makes people wonder whether this halving of the market is over. At the same time, it also introduces a menstrual problem in the currency circle. Assets? Why is it more disgusting than the stock market.

So here are two questions to discuss:

1. Is Bitcoin a safe-haven asset?

2. Why did the halving market suddenly end?

First, is Bitcoin a safe-haven asset?

First look at the definition of safe-haven assets:

Safe-haven assets refer to a class of relatively stable assets whose prices will not fluctuate too much as the market changes. Common safe-haven assets are the US dollar, gold, and the often overlooked Swiss franc and yen.

As far as Bitcoin's high volatility is concerned, the classification of safe-haven assets is excluded. From this point of view, Bitcoin is a risky asset. Maybe you ask, after the US-Iraq conflict at the beginning of the year, after the Iranian second child Sulaymani was assassinated by the US military, isn't bitcoin going up?

It is true that the market price has skyrocketed, but I still think that the kinetic energy of the funds that propelled Bitcoin's skyrocketing comes from the interpretation of the Iranian incident. There are really few Mao people in Iran who bought bitcoin because of that incident. To put it bluntly, it is the borrowing of capital, because people in the currency industry really have the expectation that "the cannon will ring, and the bit will skyrocket."

In addition, is it a safe-haven asset? If I think about it briefly, I also think that Bitcoin is indeed not very reliable as a safe-haven asset. Everyone in the currency circle is chasing ultra-high yields. but. . .

Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but has the potential to become a safe-haven asset.

Everyone always likes to tie bitcoin and gold together. The two characteristics are really too similar. They have the characteristics of scarcity, global consensus, decentralization, and mining. Therefore, Bitcoin is known as the "digital gold" in the Internet era .

Both of these are against the fiat currency, because after the abolition of the gold standard, the world has entered the era of credit currency, and the credit currency can expand infinitely, the fiat currency continues to depreciate, and gold continues to increase in value. Greenspan said at a congressional hearing in 1999: "Gold represents the ultimate means of payment for world currencies."

Under extreme circumstances, after the collapse of the fiat currency system, no one accepted fiat currency, because there was no purchasing power and a rapid depreciation, gold would never be rejected. However, in this extreme environment, gold has become ZF's strategic reserve, and it will inevitably limit the use of gold by the people. At this time, because Bitcoin is not controlled by any organization, it can be used as a safe-haven asset to replace some of the functions of the local fiat currency system.

The events in Argentina and Venezuela are a good test of the safe-haven nature of Bitcoin, but this is far from enough. Bitcoin also needs to undergo a test of the collapse of the fiat currency of the larger economy. Only consensus on safe-haven assets can be formed. Of course, once Bitcoin becomes a globally recognized safe-haven asset, it means that the value of Bitcoin's investment will be greatly reduced.

Why did the halving market suddenly end?

I think there are two main reasons:

1. deleveraging

2. Basic market laws

Due to strong expectations of halving the market, capital is full of leverage, and leverage requires borrowing USDT. Recently, we have seen that the over-the-counter USDT has risen very high. Although the USDT price is linked to the US dollar exchange rate in the long term, it will still suffer Supply and demand impact. This means that a large number of people are borrowing or buying USDT during this period, so there is a short-term premium.

Even many platforms have no money to borrow, and those who are long will not be able to leverage more funds, and the price increase will be interrupted into the downward channel.

Here comes the key point.

The market cannot continue to rise, and the big bull market has to go back in three steps. This is the basic market law. In fact, it is also good to explode the person who opened the lever, and provide more fuel for the next market start. After all, the car is too heavy to pull.

Any so-called big and small market is the story of "the reality version of the wolf is coming" . Now you need to understand the concept of "Pavlov's dog" .

The famous psychologist Pavlov performed such an experiment with dogs:

Turn on the red light and ring the bell before each dog's food. After a certain period of time, even if the food is not given, the bell starts to spit as soon as the bell rings or the red light comes on.

We are this "Pavlov dog" in the currency circle.

The market before the market must be desperate, and the specific manifestation is that everyone does not want to buy it. This is also in line with the characteristics of the market, they will not accept retail orders. As soon as you chase up, you plunge, chase up, and plunge until you are trained to be "Pavlov's dog." When retail investors do not buy when they are killed, the market will quickly form a joint force to push the market higher.

When the market enters a big market stage, every time it pulls back, it slaps, and then it rises to sugar candy. Over time, people forget the risks. When the "bull" suddenly comes to an end, ordinary retail investors will only think that it is just a slap, and there will be sugar behind it, and the bull market will end.

3. "Ming Pai" becomes "Dark Arrow"

The halving is a Zhang Ming card. Everyone knows the benefits. Everyone is waiting for the halving to make a fortune. So who will pay the money for everyone? Only when the expectation of halving is broken, so that most people no longer believe in the so-called halving market, can the resistance of the market rise be reduced, and the real halving market can be ushered in.