What Bitcoin will look like in 10 years, Satoshi Nakamoto says | Bitcoin Secret History

Different from the direction described by Satoshi Nakamoto in the white paper "Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System", after ten years of development and precipitation, Bitcoin has now become the digital gold among the vast majority of the population. So in another ten years, what will Bitcoin look like in 2030?

Continue to move towards the store of value, exist as a hedge against inflation, develop into a new type of financial instrument, or as Satoshi Nakamoto predicts, “the transaction volume is large or not”?

Picture from: Medium

On February 14, 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto made a conjecture about Bitcoin after 2030 when discussing transaction fees with netizens themmos. He stated, "After decades, when block rewards almost disappeared, The transaction fee will be the main source of revenue for the node. I am very sure that after 20 years, the transaction volume on the chain will either be very huge or not. "

Picture from: A conversation between Satoshi Nakamoto and netizens theymos on the Bitcointalk forum on February 14, 2010

However, according to the current development trend of Bitcoin, in another ten years, neither scenario described by Satoshi Nakamoto may happen. The latter has no trading volume. Needless to say, it is estimated that everyone is basically not convinced; the former will have a huge trading volume. It seems reasonable to listen, but it should be noted that Satoshi Nakamoto mentioned here is on-chain trading. , Not off-chain transactions. Judging from Bitcoin's current expansion path, even if the market demand is huge, the on-chain transaction throughput will still be limited by the block size.

Bitcoin's block reward halving and forecast of money supply over time (Image source: researchgate, en.bitcoin.it/wiki)

The future will never be black and white. Where Bitcoin will go in 10 years is not as simple as Satoshi Nakamoto's conjecture, "Erupt or End", it is full of various possibilities. However, it can be known that by 2030, block rewards will almost disappear as Satoshi Nakamoto said. According to the calculation that Bitcoin's block reward is halved every 4 years or so, Bitcoin mining rewards will be 1.56 BTC / block by 2028, and will be further reduced to 0.78 BTC / block by 2032. So it is easy to foresee that the mining market where transaction fees will become the main source of income for mining nodes will undergo drastic changes.