Before the halving, do you still have the opportunity to join the "Bitcoin 1% Elite Club"?

This article comes from Bitcoin.com , the original author: Jamie Redman

Translators | Moni

Currently, there are approximately 18,244,475 BTC of Bitcoins in circulation worldwide.

If nothing else, Bitcoin will halve the block reward on May 11, 2020-that is, 70 days later, which means that the supply of Bitcoin in the circulating market will not increase as much as before.

Therefore, in the past few weeks, many bitcoin industry "big coffees" have begun to discuss a topic: How much BTC is held in a wallet to become the top 1% Bitcoin holder? According to Blockworks Group analyst Jake Levison, in terms of current Bitcoin distribution and statistics, if you have 0.28 BTC, you can already be the richest 1% BTC "HODLer" in the world.

However, the debate over how much BTC it takes to reach the "1%" level has been going on for many years, and there are many other opinions in the community.

Is 0.28 BTC enough to make you one of the "Bitcoin 1% Elite Clubs"?

On February 18, 2020, Blockworks Group analyst Jake Levison posted on Twitter that if you own 0.28 BTC, then statistically you can put you in the richest 1% of the bitcoin world. Although this tweet received more than 1,500 likes, not everyone agrees with Jake Levison because they feel that the number of BTC needed to join the "Bitcoin 1% Elite Club" may be even smaller in the future.

For example, Twitter user @Haggsboson said:

"If we assume that 1 billion people will use the Bitcoin network by 2030, this means that by then the average global bitcoin holdings will be only 0.01 BTC."

The hypothesis that "the average global bitcoin holdings in 2030 is only 0.01 BTC" comes from Parker Lewis, head of business development at Unchained Capital, who recently published an article entitled "Bitcoin Obsoletes All Other Money" ) Research-Of course, Jake Levison's recent "0.28 BTC" idea is actually not very new, because others have previously discovered that 0.28 BTC may make you the richest 1% Bitcoin owner.

For example, Steve Lee, former Google product director, said the same thing back in October 2018, when he said:

"If you own 0.28 BTC and live in HODL, you can be sure that in the current world population, the proportion of people who own more bitcoins than you will not exceed 1%."

Just after Jake Levison's latest remarks, Steve Lee made some more comments on Twitter, saying:

"At the moment, you only need to make a modest investment of $ 1,830 to ensure that you will be one of the top 1% in the future bitcoin world."

However, the crypto community also has other opinions on this: because you must consider the existence of the bitcoin whale, even if you hold the number of bitcoins among the top 1%, it does not mean that your wealth can also be in the top 1%. in. The following figure is a schematic diagram of the "average holdings per user" in Parker Lewis of Unchained Capital in his "Bitcoin Elimination of All Other Currency" study, which shows that the average holdings will start to decrease from 0.20 BTC starting in 2020, to In 2030, the average currency holding will decrease from 0.02 BTC and continue to 0.01 BTC after 2057. Parker Lewis believes that the more bitcoins are allocated, the better the utility and the higher the value.

If I model Bitcoin allocation without considering wallets and addresses, can 15 BTC join the "Bitcoin 1% Elite Club"?

In fact, whether it is Blockake Group analyst Jake Levison or former Google product director Steve Lee, what they call "0.28 BTC can join the 1% Bitcoin Elite Club" is not very convincing, after all, this number is a bit small incredible.

Studies have shown that the minimum amount required to qualify as a "Bitcoin 1% Elite Club" is at least 15 BTC.

According to an analysis chart released by Blocklink.info in 2017, it takes at least 15 BTC to reach the top 1% in the Bitcoin HODLer world, and at least 89 BTC to reach the top 0.1%. In the analysis of Blocklink.info, the number of "Bitcoin 1% Elite Clubs" worldwide is approximately 225,000. In addition, Bambouclub released a similar study on September 9, 2017. They all adopted a new Bitcoin allocation evaluation model, which is a new research scheme called "completely ignore wallet and address data". The results Shows that you want to join the "Bitcoin 1% Elite Club" with more than 0.28 BTC! The evaluation model is based on the following four assumptions:

1. Power law applies to the distribution of Bitcoin wealth;

2.Bitcoin wealth distribution completely maps global wealth distribution;

3.The number of Bitcoin holders is 25 million;

4. Bitcoin holders have not lost BTC.

From the analysis results of Blocklink.info in the figure above, you will find that if you want to become the richest Bitcoin holder of 0.01%, you need 433 BTC, and to become the richest Bitcoin holder of 0.001%, you need to exceed 7,021 BTC. In addition, the study also found that in 2017, only 500 people worldwide belonged to the "Bitcoin 0.01% Elite Club", while the "Bitcoin 0.001% Elite Club" had a smaller number of only 250.

However, estimates of the number of richest Bitcoin holders are usually not too accurate, because no one really knows how many people in the world own Bitcoin, let alone the specific amount of a small number of Bitcoins. In addition, many bitcoins are still missing. It is estimated that as of January 2020, the number of bitcoins in a dormant state exceeded 10 million. In fact, since the spring of 2017, the number of lost Bitcoins has exceeded 10.7 million, and it is also one of the most lost cryptocurrencies.

The picture below is from a study by Unchained Capital on April 17, 2018, which shows the unspent transaction output (UTXO) cycle distribution of the marked price peak. The white line is the "HODL Waves" showing the holding of the coin, and it has begun to enter New cycle. According to data on January 13, 2020, nearly 11 million BTC have never been transferred.

From the number of lost bitcoins to the number of real owners, bitcoin adoption metrics are always little known

Based on the analysis above, you will find that the number of BTC required to become a “Bitcoin 1% Elite Club” may be between 0.28 BTC and 15 BTC, depending on the statistical method of a particular study.

How did Steve Lee, former Google product director, calculate the "0.28 BTC" number in 2018? He set the number of Bitcoins at 21 million (without considering the loss of Bitcoin and other factors), and then divided by the total number of people on the planet (about 7.7 billion as of April 2019) and multiplied by 1%.

So how does Blockworks Group analyst Jake Levison calculate? In fact, Jake Levison's calculations are exactly the same as Steve Lee's, he adds:

"My tweet actually says that if you own 0.28 BTC, then only 1% of the world's people have more Bitcoin than you own, so it ranks you in the top 1%."

People are always arguing about the amount of bitcoin needed to join the "Bitcoin 1% Elite Club". Since the number of bitcoins will never exceed 21 million, many speculators have guessed how much BTC they will hold in the past years. Ranked in the "Bitcoin 1% Elite Club", but because the number of global Bitcoin holders has always been "unknown", plus different calculation methods, the estimated values ​​are also different.

Other reasons for not being able to accurately calculate the amount of Bitcoin required for the "1% Bitcoin Elite Club" include:

1. There is no exact number of Bitcoin holders;

2.The approximate number of Bitcoins that have not been lost or stolen;

3. There is no global wallet number.

Not to mention there is a lot of false information on the Internet about the number of Bitcoin owners in different countries and the number of Bitcoin owners worldwide.

According to a report issued by the digital currency company Decentralised.co on January 7, 2020 (as shown in the figure above), the number of Bitcoin addresses is increasing year by year; while Spencer Bogart, a crypto venture firm Blockchain Capital, wrote in a The research report revealed that 9% of Americans own Bitcoin. He believes that 18% of Americans aged 18-34 own Bitcoin and 12% of Americans aged 35-44 own Bitcoin. The problem is that Spencer Bogart's study only surveyed 2052 U.S. adults, but the number of adults aged 18 and over in the United States is about 209 million.

So you find that many calculations about the amount of Bitcoin required by the "Bitcoin 1% Elite Club" are actually inaccurate. In the end, how much BTC do you think you need to be in the "Bitcoin 1% Elite Club"? 0.28 BTC? 15 BTC?