About 42% of Bitcoin has not had any on-chain transactions in the past 2 years, or has become an important driving force for the rise in the price of coins

According to Bitcoininisit's report on March 4, 42% of Bitcoins have not had any on-chain transactions for at least two years, the highest percentage since June 2017.

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Is Bitcoin preparing for the big bull market?

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As of March 1, about 42% of bitcoin has not moved on the chain (that is, transactions) for at least two years.

Since July 2017, untouched Bitcoin has accounted for about 42% of total circulation. The HODL Wave is important data that can be monitored through Bitcoin's unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs). A miner creates a UTXO every time a block is rewarded. When the user is using Bitcoin to transfer money, UTXO will become the input to receive the Bitcoin address, and the sender will also receive a corresponding UTXO.

Each bitcoin transaction consists of inputs (used bitcoins) and UTXO (unused bitcoins). When the sender makes a transfer, UTXO becomes the input of the receiver, and the receiver can use it at will.

By analyzing the UTXO time used for trading, analysts can roughly estimate how much bitcoin investors have hoarded. The longer the UTXO time, the larger the proportion, the more bitcoin that means cold storage and long-term storage.

Coinmetrics recently released a cryptocurrency valuation report. This report uses the analysis of UTXO time as an evaluation indicator. They found that as of March 1, 42% of Bitcoin UTXOs had not changed for two years or more.

This is the highest number since June 2017, and Bitcoin's bull market hit a record high in December of that year. This may be an important indicator, indicating that after the block reward is halved in May, Bitcoin is preparing to launch a shock to record highs.

Coin hoarding curve

The coin hoarding curve is obtained by calculating Bitcoin Age Days (BADs). If a Bitcoin's UTXO does not change within 30 days, then it will have 30 currency days. If it has been used within 30 days, the Bitcoin currency days will be destroyed.

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Image source: coinmetric

Bitcoin's hoarding curve is mainly composed of 3 curves. The pink curve represents the Bitcoin that UTXOs have not changed for 5 years or more. The holders of these coins should belong to the first wave of miners, bitcoin enthusiasts and early adopters. Of course, this also includes a large number of lost bitcoins (early adopters lost their private keys); this type of coin loss is very common in the early days of bitcoin development. Blockchain data analysis company Chainanalysis estimates that as many as 4 million Bitcoins are permanently lost.

The red curve represents Bitcoin with UTXOs of 3 to 5 years. This batch of Bitcoin users rushed into the market in the first and second rounds of the Bitcoin bull market. They pushed the price of the currency up to 13 years, 1200 US dollars and 17 $ 20,000 a year.

The light blue curve is composed of UTXO from 18 to 24 months. The holders of these coins left the market during the bitcoin bull market in 2017, but started to buy bitcoins in a bear market and kept hoarding coins.

With the increase of hodler, the scarcity of bitcoin becomes more and more obvious. This has increased the momentum of the rise in the price of the currency, and at the same time the upcoming halving will further reduce the supply of new bitcoins. These two points constitute important factors that promote the skyrocketing price of Bitcoin.