Bitcoin halved: revolution, scam, revolution, scam …

Since the end of February, the price of Bitcoin has dropped significantly, and the leeks have experienced another round of harvesting. According to Coin Coin data, from February 24th to 28th, the total net position of the entire network was 1.552 billion US dollars. In addition to the blood loss on the funds, the capriciousness of the currency price also made the leeks psychologically tortured. In this regard, two opposing voices have appeared in the market, one is optimistic about halving, the other is that "the best story, the one who kills the most". Of course, many people are neutral.

Look at the bad point of view:

Cash flow in the currency and mining circles will be tight

Fei Liu | CEO of Binxin Mining

16 years into the lap

Predicted price halving: $ 7000-8000

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

Before the halving, it was mainly based on a wide range of shocks, and further declines were not ruled out. There is no possibility of a substantial increase for a period of time before or even after halving. The market's trading volume will further shrink, and the cash flow of the entire currency circle and mining circle will be very tight. It has little effect on the overall computing power of the mining industry. Most of the machines that can't run (machines with power consumption above 60W / T) will go to the flood season. There may be a 30% drop in computing power, and then it will return to 100E. It doesn't matter much about the security of the Bitcoin network.

 

Mining pool, borrowing, and cloud computing power are very risky

Kai Miao | CEO of Neuralchain

Entered the circle in 18 years and have known some people in the circle in 13 years

Predicting the price in half: It's difficult to reach $ 20,000

Can you tell us what you think about this halving market?

The outbreak has affected BTC prices, mining machine manufacturers, mines, and lending platforms. This year's market, I think it will be very difficult to reach $ 20,000. According to my judgment, there will be a clear market from mid to late March, and it will still rise, but I don't think that the rise in currency prices will cover the increase in computing power and competition costs.

This year's electricity bill is almost 3 cents, which is 8 cents to 1 cent higher than last year. Someone previously revealed that Ganzi Prefecture needs to set up an industrial park and centralized management. The electricity price is definitely more expensive than that of power plants. That is, there is no abandonment of water and electricity prices this year.

In addition, the computing power is still very high. On btc.com, the entire network has a computing power of 116E. By May, these computing powers can only be divided into 6.25 BTC every 10 minutes.

Several businesses are more dangerous now:

First, it is estimated that the loan will be closed, and the large amount of liquidation may not necessarily be closed. It really is a dead letter, which is more dangerous than P2P. The funder should not promise that the leek will store BTC and wait for it to come back. It really has to close the position. Be careful when borrowing. Some people now do mortgage lending and may not even plan to repay. It is better to do lending business after May.

Second, the original plan for the mine pool was 6-8 months. The epidemic situation has now passed two months. It is estimated that the return period will be doubled. It should be more than a year and a half. You can also buy a mining machine. Do the math.

Third, I think there is a high probability that the cloud computing power business will collapse. Those who have the computing power and can get the electricity bill will mine for their own money; if they can't get the cheap electricity bill, they will pass part of the cost to the cloud computing power buyer through the cloud computing power. In the case of subsequent mining halving, the risk of changes in computing power returns is very high, and there is a high probability of losing money. Some cloud computing power has evolved into 1C0 under the hood of the mining circle. Pay attention to the risks.

Veterans of the mining circle may take advantage of this market to harvest one, and wait for new entrants in the circle to be unable to carry it, low-cost mining machines and BTC. As long as you can stock BTC, you don't have to worry too much about short-term prices. Practitioners need to have a longer-term perspective, firmly believe in the value of BTC, and do a good job in cash flow, so that they can earn money in the past.

No so-called halving market

Xia Feng | Partner, Spark Capital

16 years into the lap

Predicted halving price: 10000-12000 USD

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

I personally feel that there is no so-called halving market. There are three main reasons: First, the rise and fall depends on the general trend. If we believe that BTC is in the process of rising, then it will not fall in the medium and long term. Second, the transaction market and the mining market have actually formed two different areas. Although they are inextricably linked, the halved fundamentals can only be used as a reference, and the actual situation refers to the first one.   Third, the halving is the growth rate of supply, not the stock, and there is no change in the nature of the supply-demand relationship. Fourth, I fell irresponsible.

 

Halving coins will not break the previous high

Zhao Chen

16 years into the lap

Predicted price halving: 10500 knives are definitely halved, and it is possible to cut it to 3,000 knives.

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

There is not much market, and the halving of the coin will not break the previous high. This year's highs have already come out, BSV 450, BTC 10500.

Can you ask why it is so pessimistic?

The reason is more complicated. In short, the cattle have been killed by chickens to obtain eggs.

Now the currency market has become CFD (contracts for difference, contracts that do not actually hold spot) transactions, pure gambling, no one takes the spot, is a leveraged bull. Just say a few points.

First, from the launch of BTC in 2009 to the present, the world has been a period of easing, the starting point of the ten-year bull market for US stocks. The so-called small cycle once every four years was established under the large cycle of credit expansion. Now the global credit expansion cycle has come to an end. Such assets as BTC have never passed through such a cycle.

Second, the main role of leveraged derivatives such as option futures was to hedge the spot, and the users were mainly miners. But the low volatility of the bear market at the end of 2018 exposed many people to derivatives trading and increased their risk appetite.

Third, leveraged derivatives evolved from delivery contracts to perpetual contracts (no delivery required), and from asset valuation to USDT valuation, resulting in asset risk exposures without holding asset positions.

Fourth, the 2020 epidemic has somewhat reduced offline capital inflows. Newcomers usually buy spot, but with limited inflows, the market is full of old leeks. The spot can no longer meet the risk appetite of the transaction, and most people are going to speculate on contracts.

Fifth, CFD (Contracts for Difference) does not need to hold the underlying assets. It is like buying accident insurance for neighbors and making profits on their own. And the futures and spot contract prices are not 1: 1 anchored, so the control space is even greater.

6. In the absence of new funds, all the funds on the market are leveraged funds, so it will happen that the previous exchange could not borrow USDT. The bubbles that leveraged funds blow up burst very quickly.

If you look closely, the products launched by the exchange this year are all leveraged products, either contracts or 3x leveraged ETF products. To put it bluntly, everyone loves gambling now, and the exchange is just catering to everyone's needs.

Neutral view:

This time the halving market will be greatly advanced

Tian Jia | Cortex Chief Scientist

11 years into the lap

Predicted price halving: Should be above $ 10,000

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

History never repeats itself, just pressing the same rhyme. Now the price mover in the market will advance the price in various expectations, so after two halvings, the halving market will be significantly advanced. In addition, the previous halving occurred when BTC was not yet a climate, unlike the current market with a full set of financial instruments and entrepreneurial minds. This halving will bring more interesting and unpredictable results, and will pay more attention. However, halving is only an event that affects the relationship between supply and demand. After all, I hope that the new attention can shift more to technological innovation. The impact of halving in the future will become smaller and smaller, replaced by technical updates, and the opening of new application markets.

Bullish view:

Halving the market is not over

Lin Jiapeng | Founder of Tiger Cloud, Founder of LinkVC

13 years in the ring

Forecast price halved: $ 11,000

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

The halving market is not over and will continue to rise. There is a cost for miners to mine. If the price is still around 9,000 after halving, mining difficulties will occur.

My speculation is by intuition

Tinkerbell | Co-founder of Contract Emperor

16 years into the lap

Predicted halving price: 13333.77-13777.33

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

I am still optimistic about halving the market. Regardless of whether the flat pie is traversing or falling, I think there will still be a market from March 19 to April.

Based on your judgment?

Tell you a story. When BTC was at 14,000 last year, you saw the conference in the blockchain industry. The guests said that the price reached 20,000, 30,000, and 50,000; by the end of the year, BTC was 7,000, and you asked to halve. : The halving has nothing to do with the bull market. The halving may increase to 85,000. Then at the end of the year, the Chinese will spend the Spring Festival and the policy will be suppressed. And 50,000, now it's 85,000.

You can learn a truth from it. Many people say that it depends on the fundamentals of policy and USDT outflow, but BTC is from the whole world. Do you know what Americans think, Singaporeans think, Iranians think, and Russians think? You do not know. Therefore, the so-called news and fundamentals are for everyone to touch the elephant blindly. The fundamentals are elephants. No one can touch the entire elephant. There is no such thing as judgment.

I see trends by intuition. I shouted orders at the ETC 3.8 to 3.4, which was super long and over 7,000 super long BTC, which everyone knows. Quite simply, it's all about intuition and chives. I've seen some people who can talk about a lot of logic.

Halving has limited impact on market supply and demand pattern

Guo Xiaochuan | Founder of Muse Network Foundation, Director of Asia Blockchain Foundation

12 years into the lap

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

On the one hand, the psychology is very resistant. As a currency holder, there is a halving market, but logically, the halving market lacks a foundation. The market itself is a complicated matter. Some are positive and some are negative. Various kinds of information and emotions are constantly playing games and eventually reflected in the market price. Halving is only one of the influencing factors. Objectively speaking, halving the new supply speed of bitcoin is a good thing, but the current rate of issuance is already very low, which has limited impact on the market's supply and demand pattern. On the contrary, if prices have not risen and a large number of miners have been squeezed out by reduced production, this part of the computing power may instead be a time bomb. The recent epidemic has caused large water releases worldwide, which may lead to price increases.

There will be an unprecedented bull market before 2024

Peng Song | CZZ Project Sponsor

16 years into the lap

Predicted halving price: 10000-15000 USD

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

Judging from historical data, the halving will inevitably have a great upward shock on the market. For the miner economy, there is an inevitable logic of rising. Mining coins are halved, there are high-quality mining machines, and the price of the currency does not need to be changed; halvings of mining coins, no high-quality mining machines, and the currency price does not change. In theory, there is a 51% attack. If a conspirator collects a large number of selling miners at this time, controlling the cost of Bitcoin at that time is optimal. Something like Bitcoin can be zeroed by double spend, including instant double spend. Now Bitcoin's entire network computing power is equivalent to 2 million S17 units. It consumes 96 million kWh of electricity per day and about 30 million yuan (0.3 yuan per degree). Bitcoin now generates 144 blocks a day, and each block rewards 12.5 BTC. One dollar, rewards 14.4 million dollars per day, and Bitcoin halved rewards 7.2 million dollars per day.

This time, the problem of double spending will not occur in half of Bitcoin. With the increase of the size of miners, the price of coins will not change, and the profit will be less. At this time, various forces will cause the price of coins to rise. If the currency price is still $ 8,000 by 2024, it is very dangerous, so there will be an unprecedented bull market waiting for us before 2024.

Bitcoin's miner model can only go up. It has designed humanity, which is to trap people around the world and turn them into a community of interests.

Bitcoin trend can't just look at halving

Alex | HPool CEO

Mining started in 11 years

Predicted price halving: the peak may reach $ 200,000, and the bull market may start from the end of this year for 2 years

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

This time the halving market has a few key points with a high probability. It is similar to the previous one: before the halving, the overdraft will be halved in advance. The halving may be stepped down at that time. Over time, the real effect of the halving will slowly come Effect, forming the remaining trend. However, the macro trend of Bitcoin can not only be seen in half. The impact of mining on the price of bitcoin is indeed relatively large, but it is not absolute, it depends on whether the environment has funds flowing in. The impact of the currency price is not 100% on mining, such as the impact of the epidemic on the economy, whether Bitcoin has a hedged nature, and whether mainstream funds can enter through legal channels such as ETFs. The impact may be greater.

 

Run out of time validity analysis is fortune telling

Andy | Locomotive Capital Partner, Huobi Gold Medal Fire Partner

Entered the circle in 16 years and began to be an analyst in 17 years

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

Bottom. I think that the halving market is not over. The panic drop in the previous few days was caused by the high pressure on October 26 last year. The selling pressure or partial main funds cashed in. The retailer panic was triggered on February 25 and triggered this stampede. . Yesterday, BTC bottomed out and rebounded strongly. Friends who started to open positions in the range of 8.6 to 8.3 from 2.27 can continue to hold. Don't worry about the spot.

After halving and halving, what range do you think the price is about?

I do not know either. The analysis beyond the validity of time is fortune-telling, and the analysis beyond half a month is called blind guessing. There is no long analysis at all. If I know how much it will be in May, what am I doing every day? Time is changing and market sentiment is changing. We can only take one step at a time to see the recent changes and make corresponding strategies. The person who walked 1 step and watched 100 steps was estimated to be Mr. Feng Shui.

I feel that market changes are always not consistent with market sentiment.

The market is definitely in the hands of 20%. When you are desperate, Gouzhuang starts to operate in reverse. This is human nature, that is, market sentiment, depending on how you interpret it. If you follow the flow, then you are the meat on the Zhuang case board. These days, retail investors and market sentiment are very low. Instead, I suggest to open a position between 8600 and 8300.

Coin hoarding is a better choice

Xiong Yue | Dean of Binxin Research Institute

12 years into the lap

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

Cautiously optimistic. The halving is a change in the supply of bitcoin, and the price is determined by supply and demand. Assuming that demand is constant, halving the supply will indeed increase the price. However, the market's expectation for halving may already be included in the current price, and historical data cannot accurately predict the future, so it is difficult to say whether there will be a surge. High leverage is more risky, and coin hoarding is a better choice. Bitcoin is still hard to count as a safe-haven asset, it is more like a niche asset. For some people in the currency circle, they can only sell coins to survive after being damaged.

 

There is a possibility that the pie is high before it is broken

Tao Wang | betaponzi from media author

15 years into the lap

Predicting halving prices: the possibility of a pre-break high

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

The halving market has reached its current position. From January BSV, BCH, and ETC began to cash, and in February the futures premium weakened, and the overall digital currency asset market value began to retreat. At present, the "mainstream currency" that has been halved has less than a month to face the halving cash, and BTC has two months left. In simple terms, the halving of mainstream currencies may have already been fulfilled. The uncertainty of the pie is higher, depending on the March futures delivery situation.

Coin price is likely to start a slow bull

Tong Dong | Post-98 Crypto Analyst

16 years into the lap

Predicted price halving: May reach $ 20,000 by 2021

The currency price has not been performing well recently. Can you ask your opinion on the halving market?

In fact, the halving market still exists. As long as it is a healthy and upward market, the area of ​​each round of market will be higher than that of the market. Near $ 8,500 and $ 8,200 is a strong support area for bitcoin, which corresponds to the main area for positions opened by non-leveraged investors in mid-to-late January this year.

If Bitcoin has a V-shaped reversal this week, it can build a good box shape, which will create favorable conditions for the subsequent return to the top of $ 9,000. It should be noted that Bitcoin was born in 2009. It has not experienced the financial crisis in 2008, so it is not easy to judge the subsequent trend. If there is a large amount of capital inflow at the current price, it means that the logic of market investors has fundamentally changed, and a new era is coming. If the box shape is successfully constructed, before the halving comes, Bitcoin will likely fluctuate sharply in the range of 8,000 to 10,000 US dollars, which is very suitable for swing investors. After halving, due to changes in supply and demand, Bitcoin is likely to start a long-term slow bull.

Judging from the trading situation in the options market, most investors are long-term bullish and they are betting on halving the market.

 

Halving is a typical self-expectation

Yi Liu | Partner, Random Capital

13 years in the ring

Predicted price halving: can break through $ 20,000

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

I think the halving market is not over yet. The recent correction is due to the rapid growth in January, new funds have not entered the market, and the long leverage ratio in the market is too high. However, one possibility cannot be ruled out, that is, the pandemic of new crown pneumonia, causing a global stock market crash, rising risk aversion, and negative currency prices. Although Bitcoin is regarded as a safe-haven asset within the circle, it is still a risk asset for new funds outside the circle.

Can you ask the reason for the rise in currency prices?

The basic premise of investing in cryptocurrencies is to believe that the price of Bitcoin is long-term, and the reasons for believing this may vary from person to person. From $ 20,000 at the end of 2017 to $ 3,000 at the end of 2018, the bear market has bottomed out. If the premise is correct, the BTC price trend will only be upward in the next few years, of course, fluctuations are inevitable. Halving is a typical realization of self-expectation. As long as a considerable number of people in the market approve of the halving, the halving will occur.

 

Believe that halving the market may be the minority

Yiding Wang | BBX Partner, Tiger Cloud Partner

16 years into the lap

Predicted price halving: It may reach 20,000 USD before and after halving, and may reach 70,000-100,000 USD in the long run.

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

I still bullish on halving the market. Although many people say that halving is bullish, it is not necessarily going up. But in fact, more and more people say this, and I think this is a game process. If you do market research now and treat the proportion of retail, practitioners, and large households more evenly, the result may be that half of them are optimistic and half of them are not optimistic. So it cannot be said that most people are optimistic. In fact, I think that there are more and more people around me who have doubts about the halving market. I think that it is probably the minority who believe that the halving market. I think the current market is more like 16 years. Now it is a process of slowly rising forward. How high the currency price can be, it must be combined with the overall market sentiment at that time, including the situation of chips and the situation of new admission funds. Wait and see.

 

Halving will push up the price of the currency

Long

14 years into the lap

Can you ask what you think about this halving market?

After halving, the actual output per day is reduced, the selling pressure is reduced, and the same amount of funds will push up the currency price. The above content is compiled from the information provided by the guests, and may be deleted. Beep News here reminds readers that investment is risky, and currency speculation needs to be cautious.