It is more than two months before Bitcoin halves, and the price of Bitcoin is still struggling below $ 9,000. Will halving the price really affect the price of Bitcoin?
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Let's briefly understand the halving first
Bitcoin developer Jimmy Song stated on Twitter that there are currently less than 10,000 blocks to halve Bitcoin. Most insiders expect that the halving will have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin.
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There is less than 10,000 blocks away from the halving!
The total supply of bitcoin was limited to 21 million at the beginning of the design. Every four years or every new 210,000 bitcoin is mined, the mining reward will be reduced. Since half of the newly rewarded bitcoin is lost, this event is called "halving". The halving will continue until all 21 million bitcoins are in circulation.
Because the total amount is limited, Satoshi Nakamoto has ensured that Bitcoin will not gradually lose purchasing power over time like fiat currency. In fact, the limited supply greatly increases the possibility that Bitcoin prices will rise steadily in the future.
Even if the returns to mining decrease over time, the rise in the price of the currency can still make miners profitable.
Mining rewards consist of block rewards and transaction fees. At present, the rewards received by miners are mainly from newly mined Bitcoins. The other part of the reward is composed of transaction fees paid by all transactions in the block.
Currently, the reward for newly mined blocks is 12.5 bitcoins, plus transaction fees in new blocks. After the next round of bitcoin halving, the mining reward will be halved to 6.25 bitcoins, which will continue until all bitcoins are mined. After that, the mining rewards of the entire network can only be maintained by transaction costs.
Review the first two halves
The first halving of Bitcoin occurred on November 28, 2012, when mining rewards were reduced from 50 Bitcoins to 25. The price of Bitcoin was about $ 11 when it was halved. In the following year, the price of Bitcoin rose to $ 1,135 on November 29, 2013, a nearly 100-fold increase.
The second halving of Bitcoin occurred on July 16, 2016, when the rewards were reduced to 12.5 Bitcoins per block. But after halving this time, the price of Bitcoin did not immediately respond.
After the last halving, the price of Bitcoin has been hovering between $ 500 and $ 800, and the entire coin circle has been quite dull. This situation continued until the end of the year. On December 21, 2016, after the price of Bitcoin exceeded $ 800, it was out of control. The following year, the big bull market rushed, and the price of Bitcoin reached a historical high of 19,862 USD on December 18, 2017, an increase of 28.27 times. Therefore, it is not surprising that the community is excited about the halving this year, based on the results of the previous two halvings in conjunction with the rise in the currency price.
Will halving this time cause the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket?
Many well-known analysts in the industry expect that the halving of Bitcoin will have a huge impact on the price of Bitcoin. These include Fund Lee's managing partner Thomas Lee, who believes that the price of Bitcoin will more than triple by 2020.
In addition, major V players including Morgan Creek Digital's Anthony Pompliano also frequently expressed their excitement about the upcoming halving on Twitter.
There are 195 days before the next Bitcoin halving.
There are less than 3 million Bitcoins that can be mined.
The hash rate of the Bitcoin network continues to hit record highs.
We are watching the world's most powerful computer network become more and more powerful.
This is incredible! These big V enthusiasms have also been echoed by traders and Holders, who also believe that the price of Bitcoin will soon skyrocket.
2020 will be a replica of 2016, and the good news is yet to come.
You still have two months to buy cheap bitcoin, and then the real price rise will begin!
When I saw those fools saying that the price of coins would not rise any more and no one bought them, my heart was ecstatic
However, history does not repeat itself. A Reddit user commented:
Bitcoin is actually a game of supply and demand. The halving reduces the supply of new coins, and if the original purchase demand is maintained, the price will rise.
The fall in the price of the currency in February was a very big blow for Bitcoin bulls. If the demand for coin purchases declines, the price of coins will decrease accordingly, and the block reward will be halved, which may put miners in trouble and even force them to shut down and close their businesses.
The price of bitcoin reached $ 10,000 at the beginning of the year, but by the end of February, the price of bitcoin had fallen sharply to less than $ 9,000 per piece. With the rapid decline of bitcoin prices and the upcoming reduction in May 2020, Half, everyone is paying attention to the next trend in the Bitcoin market.
Although Bitcoin believers like Max Keiser believe that the price of the currency can reach $ 400,000, it is unlikely that the price of Bitcoin this time will rise as much as the previous two times.
In fact, compared with 2012, the increase in the price of the currency after halving in 2016 decreased by 72%.
Based on this situation, it is speculated that if the rate of increase in the price of the currency after the halving is 72% lower than that in 2016, then we can expect that the price of the currency will increase by a significant 797%.
Based on the current currency price of $ 9,000, we expect that the price of Bitcoin will reach $ 71,730 within 12 to 18 months starting from May 2020.
Of course, the above data is only a prediction, and no one can accurately predict the future direction of any speculative assets. However, from the current information, 2021 may be the year of the arrival of the Bitcoin bull.