According to a Bitcoinist report on March 6, Willy Woo, a partner and on-chain analyst at Adaptive Capital, said that according to his model, the reasonable forecast price of Bitcoin will reach $ 135,000. However, if there is a major trend reversal in the price of Bitcoin, such as falling to $ 1,000, he can also test who is "a hardcore Bitcoin miner who can continue to operate and stay in the end."
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Testing hardcore bitcoin miners
In the latest issue of "The Keiser Report", Bitcoin believer and show host Max Keiser welcomed new guest Willy Woo. In addition to making extremely optimistic predictions for the price of the currency, Willy Woo also gave an opinion on the worst case scenario we could encounter. Willy Woo reminded his fans to think of the prediction of the price of the currency as a "guess" rather than a deterministic event.
My area of expertise is on-chain analysis, such as predicting the price movements in the medium term.
Although everyone wants the predicted currency price to become a reality, we'd better take it as a guess. Models that previously predicted success may not work again.
-Willy Woo March 5, 2020 He said that if the price of bitcoin drops to $ 1,000 per coin, "we will start testing the last hardest core miner that can continue to operate." He also said that by then, the bitcoin network will be very fragile and easy being attacked.
If the price of the coin drops to a terrible level, there are only a few miners left on the Bitcoin network. When Bitcoin does not have enough hash rate to support it, then a country or institution will be very cheap to attack it. When the price of a coin is too low, Bitcoin cannot resist the attack of a strong opponent.
However, Willy Woo is still bullish on Bitcoin
In addition to talking about this unimaginable pessimistic outlook, Keiser, an eternal bull marketer and analyst Willy Woo, believe that Bitcoin will win. Willy Woo explains how he uses capital flows on the ledger to determine where the market is heading.
He also said that through on-chain analysis, he can observe whether miners are selling coins, the movement of funds in the market, and other indicators, so as to understand the currency price trend. Keiser said Willy Woo has made many accurate judgments.
In fact, Willy Woo's tweet was very optimistic that he believes that the adjustment period for Bitcoin has ended and that it is now a bull market.
This rise is a real breakthrough. Fundamental analysis shows that active investment activities support this breakthrough of $ 10,000.
-Willy Woo February 9, 2020 So, what does Willy Woo think of Bitcoin's price trend in the next 6 months, 9 months to a year? He told Keiser that he didn't know how much the price could get, but he could judge the direction. He says:
We can use many methods to predict the top of the price. For example, you can multiply 35 by the average price of bitcoin during the accumulation stage to predict the highest price. In the 10-year history of bitcoin, this is the case for each top price. .
When Keiser asked Willy Woo to make a prediction for the top currency price, the latter stated:
Keep in mind that the bull market may last about four years, and the best guess is that the price of the coin will be above $ 100,000. I think a reasonable forecast is $ 135,000.
Bitcoin's digital scarcity determines it is "more perfect than gold"
In addition, the two also discussed the upcoming halving of Bitcoin, which will cut mining rewards in half. Willy Woo says:
This halving is important, as Bitcoin's inflation rate will be lower than that of gold. Bitcoin will reflect a more perfect digital scarcity. Gold is actually not scarce. We can launch a few more rockets and mine on asteroids to get a lot of gold. From the perspective of mathematical game theory, Bitcoin is absolutely scarce. Some people will find ways to mine more gold, and by then the price of gold will plummet.
Keiser asked, as people start to consume bitcoin, will we see bitcoin transform from a means of value storage to a medium of exchange in the future? Willy Woo replied:
If I could buy a house with a bitcoin, I would definitely buy it.
Willy Woo believes that the wish of one coin and one villa will be realized. However, he reiterated that this vision will not be realized in the short term. Before it can be realized, Bitcoin's market value needs to be large enough.
At present, the market value of Bitcoin is less than one sixth of 1 trillion. The total value of fiat currency in circulation is 90 trillion US dollars, and real estate has reached 220 trillion US dollars.
Keiser added that the total market value of gold is $ 7-8 trillion, and once the market value of bitcoin exceeds gold, the price of each bitcoin will be in the $ 400,000 price range. Willy Woo says:
To achieve this, I think we need to wait 7 to 10 years.
Willy Woo reiterated that accurate price predictions for any speculative asset are impossible, and his analysis should not be considered investment advice.
The price of Bitcoin may soar to $ 135,000, but it may also fall to $ 1,000. If you want to buy Bitcoin, you still have to make your own judgment.