QKL123 market analysis | Crypto asset investment two measures to avoid pits-fixed investment plan + decentralized portfolio (0310)

Abstract: Bitcoin rebounded yesterday evening, but the current inflow of OTC funds is not strong, the market is still extremely panic, and the short-term uncertainty is large. For ordinary investors, fixed investment and diversification are two good ways to improve the investment risk-benefit ratio, especially when using some indicators and reference agency decisions.

At 16:00 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 11630.35 points, and the 24-hour rise and fall was -1.76%, reflecting a decline in the broader market; the total turnover was 1,059.791 billion yuan, a 24-hour change of + 8.71%, and market activity increased. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 90.44 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of + 2.25%. The relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has weakened significantly. The Alternative sentiment index is 16 (previous value 17), and the market sentiment is expressed as extreme fear. The external discount premium index was reported at 102.02, and the 24-hour price fluctuation was -0.31%, and the intensity of OTC fund inflow slightly weakened.

Analyst perspective:

Investment is an art where risks and returns go hand in hand. Compared with traditional assets such as stocks, as a relatively new asset class, crypto assets have higher investment risks, so it is more important to control investment risks. For ordinary investors, the market information they obtain is very limited, and they rarely have professional analytical capabilities. Therefore, it is more difficult to directly increase the benefit-risk ratio from these two aspects. In fact, for ordinary investors, there are two simple and practical tactics that can greatly improve the return on investment and risk ratio.

One trick is to plan for a fixed vote. This move is mainly to deal with the risk of price fluctuations, especially the risk of cyclical fluctuations. Take bitcoin as an example. Bitcoin has experienced many bulls and bears for more than ten years. The maximum fall from the peak of the bull market to the trough of the bear market is more than 80% in many cycles. The simple fixed-term investment can be used to spread the fixed investment cost; if you can cooperate with the currency storage index to achieve targeted investment, you can greatly increase the income. At present, the price of bitcoin is still in an ideal fixed investment range. No one knows where the recent bottom is. A planned fixed investment will effectively curb inner greed and will not be intimidated by yesterday's plunge.

One trick is to diversify your portfolio. A good investment target is the cornerstone of income protection. However, there are many types of assets and mixed fisheyes, and low-risk assets often have low returns, while high-risk assets may bring ultra-high returns. At this time, a trade-off needs to be made, and low-risk and high-risk assets are matched in a certain proportion in the investment portfolio. Generally, the higher the risk, the lower the proportion, and the lower the risk, the greater the proportion. In the table above, the crypto assets of several very representative institutions are sorted out. These crypto assets are usually selected through strict criteria, the investment risk is relatively low, and the investment risk-benefit ratio is high.

At present, BTC, ETH, and BCH are the underlying assets of Coinbase, the most influential trading platform in the United States, BitFlyer, the largest compliance trading platform in Japan, Grayscale, a well-known investment trust, and Amun, a Swiss compliance company. XLM, ETC, etc. were selected by at least two of them, and EOS, BNB, DASH, ZEC, etc. were selected by at least one of them. In the end, two sentences sum up: "Don't put eggs in a basket"; "Don't beat the bullet all at once."

First, the spot BTC market

Under the influence of panic in the global capital market yesterday, BTC continued its heavy volume downward, reaching a minimum of $ 7,600. Although the air force was weak, the short-term rebound was not strong, and the pressure near $ 8,100 was strong. Today, the willingness of multi-arms to attack is not strong, there is a short-term stalemate, and uncertainty is greater.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH continues to increase in volume around 200 US dollars, and there is a fierce battle between long and short. Today, the Air Force is temporarily suppressed, but many troops have not stood still at $ 200, waiting for Bitcoin to stabilize and rebound.

Third, the spot BCH market

BCH has reached as low as 250 US dollars and is currently rebounding to a region where chips are concentrated. If Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds, there will be more room for rebound, but the pressure above 300 US dollars will be greater.

Fourth, the spot LTC market

LTC hits a minimum of 46 US dollars, and the amount released in a short time can be comparable to the previous big drop. It is more likely to stabilize and rebound in a short time. The upper point is to see if it can stand at $ 53 (which can be used as a sign of short-term stabilization), and the subsequent chips near $ 58 are under pressure.

V. Spot EOS Quotes

Short-term EOS rebounded from a low of 2.8 US dollars, but many troops did not stand on the chip concentration area of ​​3.1 US dollars, the main force is not willing to intervene again, waiting for the Bitcoin shock to stabilize.

Six, spot ETC market

ETC's approach is slightly different. It fell in place earlier yesterday, and the lowest fell to $ 6. Today, the amount of rebound can be increased, but the Air Force is not weak, and it will suppress many troops again. Short and long stalemate, mainly linked with ETH, waiting for stabilization.

Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is still in the next one to two years, and it is expected to usher in the crazy bull market. It is now a good time to vote. The smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, and ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

BTC fell to the 200-day moving average, and the halving is good, and there is room for further release. The relative prices of other assets are relatively low, and they are involved in batches.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Wait for stabilization, wait and see.


Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin in the market. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39 %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.