Source: Surging News · Gold Reform Lab
Author: Yang Yaodong (Shanghai Information Technology Co., Ltd. Ding shark principal investigator)
The domestic epidemic has begun to turn to “negative growth”, and the inflection point of economic separation from the negative effects has not yet arrived.
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Some factories are still closed, shops and restaurants are closed, villages are closed, and office buildings have to be controlled. Under the effect of the lag effect, the economic damage caused by the epidemic situation is still gradually appearing. If you ignore it, it is foreseeable that the subsequent recession will hit the people in the epidemic area twice.
The suspension of work interrupted cash flow, workers were unemployed, and entrepreneurs' credit broke. The impact of the tourism industry even led tour guides to switch to live broadcasting. According to a World Bank study, losses from weaker influenza can reduce global GDP by 0.5%, while a severe pandemic can cause economic losses equivalent to 5% of global GDP or more than $ 3 trillion  . The impact of this epidemic has caused global stock markets to fall into green terror, and it is difficult to predict how much economic damage will be caused by the spread of new crown pneumonia worldwide.
The "visible hand" is the time to hit.
The multi-trillion trillion “new infrastructure” stimulus plan has entered a standby state . Different from the industrial base "iron public base" (railway, highway, airport, port), this new infrastructure is oriented towards the information age.
Currently, the mainstream view is that the new infrastructure includes seven major areas: 5G, UHV transmission, high-speed rail and intercity rail transit, charging piles, data centers, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet. Candidates also have infrastructure in the fields of integrated circuits, quantum information, the Internet of Things, intelligent driving, industrial robots, hydrogen fuels, new graphene materials, and aerospace. In addition, facing the problems exposed by the incomplete development of the medical system, the construction of public health infrastructure must be included.
After SARS, we established a national infectious disease automatic warning system to monitor infectious diseases nationwide, and this outbreak exposed some shortcomings of this system to create a more open, more efficient, more credible, more secure and intelligent outbreak The monitoring system should be the future development direction. As a set of openly trusted technical solutions, blockchain technology, if combined with multiple modules such as artificial intelligence and industrial Internet, is well qualified to become an important component of new infrastructure projects. There are breaking points in the public health early warning system and growth points that will drive the information technology industry in the future.
Blockchain technology has also received high-level attention. On October 24, 2019, during the 18th collective study of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized that "the blockchain is an important breakthrough for independent innovation of core technologies" "to accelerate the promotion of blockchain technology and industrial innovation Development ".
As a newly emerged network technology, the blockchain is essentially a shared database. The data stored in it has the characteristics of immutability, traces of processes, traceability, openness and transparency, and multi-preservation. These characteristics have laid a solid foundation of trust for blockchain technology and can create a reliable cooperation mechanism.
Combined with the problems exposed by the epidemic, the blockchain is very promising in many occasions where there is a need for trust, such as:
The blockchain can be used for public welfare and charity. The credible logistics data allows the donated materials to reach the specific hospitals and departments of the terminal, so that donors donate clearly and confidently. ; Using a mobile phone to scan the code can quickly identify fake and shoddy products and avoid the use of substandard masks to infect the virus ; blockchain is used for insurance, especially after the use of insurance smart contracts, which can greatly improve the insurance claims. Speed ; Blockchain can be used for project collaboration. During the epidemic, companies can work from home. Blockchain can help distributed organizations work. Some modeled processes can be deployed on the blockchain to execute automatically. Many messages can be transparent. Sharing, increasing the degree of automation and collaboration efficiency ; blockchain can also be used in many areas such as public opinion management, rumor removal, and epidemic data disclosure .
In detail, relying on the combination of blockchain and big data in new infrastructure, artificial intelligence and the Industrial Internet will be able to provide more possibilities for these industries.
A form research and information disclosure based on blockchain trusted data
According to a retrospective case analysis paper published by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other institutions in the New England Journal of Medicine on January 29, "Initial Transmission of New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China" "Science"  reported that interpersonal communication had occurred between close contacts in mid-December 2019, and on January 1, 2020, the local public security organs successively released "South China Fruit Seafood" to 8 people including medical staff. Seven cases of SARS diagnosed by the market were handled on the basis of "spreading rumors" . According to subsequent reports published by various parties, 7 medical staff were infected from January 1 to 11, and 8 medical staff were infected from 12 to 22 onwards. However, the relevant departments still reported to the public on January 10, 2020, "No clear evidence of human-to-human transmission was found."
If we can analyze the infectivity of pneumonia as long as we find out the patient's activity trajectory and the South China Seafood Wholesale Market, we can apply positioning technology, AI and other tools to the management and prevention of infectious diseases, and identify the key factors as early as possible. The basis of early epidemic judgment. However, the foundation of relying on data is data credibility. To ensure the reliability of data, we need to use tamper-resistant blockchain technology.
Obtaining credible data is actually not easy. When New Coronary Pneumonia began to spread from Wuhan to the whole country, many fever patients deliberately concealed Wuhan's travel history, which led to the serious consequences of the isolation of the entire hospital outpatient department. For example, a patient in Weifang, Shandong, deliberately concealed his personal travel history and personal contact history, resulting in the isolation of 68 medical staff ; a Fujian patient knew that he was from Wuhan, but lied to another person that he was from the Philippines and did not follow the rules. Isolated at home and attended banquets several times, resulting in 7 people infected with new coronary pneumonia, and nearly a thousand people were asked to observe at home .
In this situation, a method that relies solely on personal travel history to provide a reliable solution at the critical moment of the epidemic. In the face of this problem, if you use the blockchain technology to record the trajectory, the last month's air departure information, train departure and arrival information, and mobile phone positioning information of the patients who went to the fever department clinic are combined in some form, then the patient's travel data It is more credible and comprehensive, and avoids artificial memory or intentional concealment.
The main point is that airline ride information, train station check-in information, long-distance passenger transportation company data, and mobile phone positioning information all belong to different companies. There is no affiliation between these entities. Therefore, if there is no higher-level powerful entity, Coordination, then there is a problem with data call collaboration. However, with an alliance chain, when all parties join at the same time, they can effectively collaborate with each other and solve the problem of data ownership.
Blockchain-based encryption technology and permission control technology can protect private information, and patients do not have to worry about a large amount of private data being exposed. As the reader of the data, the hospital can join this alliance chain network at a special time and obtain limited permissions to read the data. The doctor enters the patient's ID number or other document number in the system. The blockchain network only needs to return whether there is a travel history of the epidemic area within 14 days. It does not need to expose the patient's travel details and other private information. After obtaining credible data and a clear judgment on the infectivity of the disease, local governments should report to the public in a timely manner, giving the public the right to know, and preventing panic caused by suspicion.
Building a new generation of disease control and early warning system
To confirm the patient activity trajectory or the relationship between patients, some machine learning tools can be used to analyze the credible on-chain data, but to confirm the infectious disease nationwide and provide early warning, a complete system is required. In December 2019, some medical institutions in Wuhan appeared pneumonia patients of unknown cause one after another, but after nearly two months, until the end of January 2020, the relevant public opinion began to spread throughout the country. This highlights the lack of automatic warning and response mechanisms for infectious diseases in the country currently in operation in China.
After SARS in 2008, China has already operated national infectious disease early warning systems in 31 provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions), established early warning and response mechanisms, and realized automatic analysis of 39 kinds of infectious disease surveillance data and real-time spatial-temporal aggregation. , The sending of early warning signals and the real-time tracking of response results, the reporting methods have gradually evolved from traditional manual reporting to information and IT reporting modes. This system is available in some cases. In May 2015, the Huizhou People's Hospital of Guangdong Province treated a tourist with a fever of nearly 40 ° C from South Korea. The hospital found that he may be infected with MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus), a severely harmful virus with a lethality of up to 40%. Only 8 days after receiving the patient, China successfully completed the virus genome sequence test of MERS cases. On June 11, domestic equipment has been able to carry out genetic testing of MERS, with a sample size of 96 person-times. Once the prevention and control systems at all levels find fever samples within two hours, they can be reported step by step in the early warning system. In the 2015 MERS incident, the medical staff involved in the treatment and the patients who were in contact with the patient were promptly isolated and observed, and no Chinese were infected with the MERS virus .
In addition to the national automatic infectious disease early warning system, China has also successively established a national infectious disease report information management system and its core subsystem, the National Infectious Diseases Network Direct Reporting System (NNDRS), to achieve the implementation of legal infectious disease cases based on medical institutions. Real-time, online and direct reporting; meanwhile, in order to improve the completeness and accuracy of the monitoring data, standardized and unified collection of data such as electronic health records (EHR) and electronic medical records (EMR) has also been conducted, and piloted and operated Level 4 population health information. Platform and its data exchange platform (district, city, province, country); in order to reduce the difficulty for physicians to fill out infectious disease report cards, the hospital's HIS system and direct reporting system were opened, and the filling out page was automatically popped up or manually opened through the medical records. Semi-automatic submission of infectious disease report cards.
In some well-established provinces, clinicians can automatically report infectious diseases through the hospital HIS system when filling in electronic medical records, and the reported infectious disease report card can pass the four-level public health data exchange platform to verify the data format and integrity. After supplementation (electronic health card and electronic medical record), it was finally collected into the National Infectious Diseases Network Direct Reporting System (NNDRS), and the National Infectious Diseases Early Warning System adopted these infectious disease reporting cards, using fixed threshold method and time model method (mobile Percentile method, cumulative and control chart method, cluster epidemic method) Calculate, monitor and analyze 39 epidemic situations on a daily basis and provide early warning to primary hospitals and disease control systems.
Why does this seemingly perfect system not be good enough for new coronary pneumonia?
The national infectious disease automatic early warning system has established an automatic early warning and response mechanism. The early warning data comes from the data reported by the national infectious disease report card step by step. The early warning model is mainly divided into two kinds of fixed threshold method and time model method. The fixed threshold method is an event model that sets the threshold of the number of occurrences of 15 major infectious diseases. : Moving percentile method, cumulative and control chart method, cluster epidemic method, is the detection of 18 infectious diseases, and its essence is to increase the historical statistical analysis of time and space dimensions. Early warning. At present, the early warning model of the infectious disease early warning system in China is not a conditional model based on big data analysis, but only a judgment model based on the result rule of the infectious disease report card. The rule judgment model must be a judgment and early warning of known infectious diseases, so it has basically no effect on new types of major infectious diseases.
In addition, in the existing national infectious disease reporting system, there are very high requirements for the completeness and accuracy of the data, so the current infectious disease report card is reported to the national infectious disease network direct reporting system after the clinician completes the report. Three additional manual approvals are required, namely: in-hospital health care physician review, district and county CDC review, and municipal CDC review. The use of multiple agencies and personnel to verify and approve is a major shortcoming in monitoring the outbreak of major infectious diseases. Once an infectious disease appears early, stability from the local government, economic pressure, and public pressure may affect the smooth reporting process. If the reporting path is shortened and automatic reporting based on blockchain smart contracts is achieved, human intervention will be avoided and the processing efficiency of the system will be improved.
How to design a more reasonable infectious disease prevention system? In the face of bacteria and viruses, the immune system of large animals that have evolved over 10,000 years may be a very worthy object to study. We can do some understanding from the practice of the human body's own immune system. When a foot is injured, the information of the injury (pain) is not reported to the foot first, then to the leg, and finally to the head, but directly to the brain through the nervous system, and it will immediately respond ( Such as staying away from the source of injury). From the bottom up, a clearly structured prevention system may be compromised in efficiency. If it can be like the human immune system, each terminal can report directly to the central, which is conducive to rapid response.
So what is the problem of reporting directly to the central government? Perhaps the central system needs to process too much data. This can rely on new Internet technology to improve the processing capacity of the entire network. It can even use some edge computing solutions to perform some preliminary processing of data at the terminal to reduce the central computing pressure. Another possible issue is the reliability of the data. This can be achieved by relying on the characteristics of blockchain data's traceability and immutability. Even the data submitted by doctors at the grassroots level should have initial diagnostic records and test sheets. The original records are uploaded to the central system to allow the central system to review the situation directly. The central system is directly connected to the most basic terminal, which also facilitates the system to quickly collect information, quickly understand the overall situation in the early stage of the epidemic, and make deployment.
Three blockchains promote medical data sharing and results transformation
During the development of the epidemic, it is also exposed that there are serious thesis-oriented issues in current medical research, such as theoretical departure from practice, and research on isolated islands. Some successful experiences in past outbreak management have not been disseminated and promoted in a timely manner. After unexplained pneumonia occurred in Shanghai and Anhui in March 2013, relevant departments used the established experimental diagnostic platform to determine that the pathogen was H7N9 avian influenza virus within a short period of time. Subsequently, the health department took a series of emergency measures to control the disease. H7N9 infections in the Yangtze River Delta region were also quickly eliminated and there was no epidemic trend . However, these valuable experiences in dealing with major infectious diseases have not been promoted nationwide.
This has also led to the inability of basic research results to be translated into clinical diagnosis and treatment in a timely manner. Although basic research departments such as the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have achieved a series of results in this epidemic, such as quickly obtaining virus sequences and establishing RT-PCR laboratory diagnostic methods, they have not been promoted to clinical diagnosis and treatment in local hospitals in. Among them are the reasons why it is difficult to share clinical research data between centers, and it is difficult to share and integrate clinical, basic, and public health data. All parties hold their own data.
It is difficult to share data in two aspects: 1) how to determine the ownership of the data; 2) how to protect privacy and prevent infringement during the sharing process. However, blockchain can solve these problems very well. Regarding data confirmation, in a network formed by multiple participants such as hospitals, medical schools, and testing institutions, the right can be automatically determined on the chain according to who submits data on the chain first and who has the power; The data is encrypted, and every time the data is transferred and used on the chain, it will leave marks on the chain. Data that has been used multiple times will be motivated, which can effectively strengthen collaboration among multiple departments, and promote results sharing and data sharing.
Four Industrial Internet and Smart City
Industrial Internet and smart cities are also the key directions of the new infrastructure. The Industrial Internet integrates technologies such as the Internet of Things, big data, artificial intelligence and 5G communications, and deep integration with traditional manufacturing, which is expected to significantly improve manufacturing efficiency and drive the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing. Among them, blockchain technology will also play an important role. Transparent and immutable data is the basis for processing the relationship between people, people and machines, and machines and machines. Everything is open and transparent and can be shared, which is very helpful for business owners to judge the operation of the enterprise, so as to find the key issues to solve.
In addition, 5G + Internet of Things + artificial intelligence + blockchain will become the standard for future smart cities. A smart city is an advanced form of urban informatization that fully utilizes the new generation of information technology in all walks of life in cities based on the next generation of innovation in a knowledge society (Innovation 2.0). "Urban diseases", improve the quality of urbanization, achieve refined and dynamic management, and improve the effectiveness of urban management and improve the quality of life of citizens.
Specifically, the industrial Internet and smart cities have in common that both require a large amount of frequent and reliable data interaction and sharing. Production information, worker information, living information, and citizen information all require frequent interaction and invocation, and performance needs to be guaranteed on a credible basis. Blockchain, in addition to solving trusted data, combined with mainstream heterogeneous sharding technology, can not only ensure the reliability and validity of communication, but also be compatible with multiple types of data and data invocation and interoperation between non-strong central systems. Create flexible and inclusive businesses and cities.
It is only 11 years since the birth of blockchain technology, and the application of related technologies in various industries has just begun. However, relying on the possibilities provided by the above blockchain, blockchain has the ability to make new infrastructure and future public health systems more efficient. , Better compatibility, more flexible ability to open trusted information systems. It can help governments, enterprises and social institutions break the information silos, realize smart cities, smart factories and more efficient disease prevention and control systems. At present, the government, universities and enterprises have actively used the blockchain in the epidemic prevention and control process, and more blockchain applications are gradually being rolled out in all walks of life. As the epidemic changed from stormy to overcast, we saw the huge potential of large-scale application of blockchain in public events. We hope that the new infrastructure combined with blockchain technology can break through the haze and bring back the long-lost sunlight.
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