The financial crisis is raging, and the bitcoin bull market is expected to fail?

The most recent week has been a week of witnessing history.

On March 3, the Federal Reserve announced an emergency rate cut, which was the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve since the 2008 financial crisis. On March 8, the Saudi stock market plummeted, and the Kuwaiti stock market melted for the first time. On March 9, Brent crude oil plummeted by 30%, the largest drop since the 1991 Gulf War. On the same day, the global market fell into a panic plunge: Kuwait's stock market melted again, US stocks melted down, Brazil's stock market melted down, and European, Australian, Thai, UAE and other multinational stock indexes hit their biggest one-day decline since the 2008 financial crisis. Japan, Russia and other countries officially entered a technical bear market.

Global financial assets have been sold off in a frenzy, and for a time, concerns about a new global financial crisis have begun to spread.

At this time, Bitcoin, which was born during the last financial crisis, affected the nerves of many people.

However, at the moment of global asset resonance, Bitcoin's performance is not satisfactory. From the early morning of March 8, Bitcoin dropped from $ 9,187 to $ 7,638, a drop of 16.86%.

Safe-haven assets and digital gold appear to have been falsified in this incident, leaving only half of the market's last line of defense left.

At present, there is only 60 days to halve. In the face of old questions such as whether Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset or digital gold, the new issues such as whether the global stock market has plummeted, and whether Bitcoin can survive alone, and whether the halving is effective are imminent. The problem occurred, Babbitt interviewed the views of the industry.

Does the plunge in global stock markets mean that the world has actually entered an economic crisis?

Johnson Xu, chief analyst of TokenInsight:

The main reason for the stock market's plunge this time was not because of the global financial crisis or global recession, but because of the sell-off caused by the market's panic that the new crown pneumonia virus has spread to the world. In fact, two years ago, the signs of the global financial recession have been revealed, and this time the global virus outbreak is only a point to start the global economic crisis.

ChaiNext CMO Li Minyu:

This round of decline, the main stock index of the US stock market has pulled back about 20%, be considered a technical bear market. But whether a new round of financial crisis will occur depends on the degree of control of the global epidemic. The sooner the virus disappears, the less likely the financial crisis will be. The longer the front is dragged, the greater the possibility of a crisis.

In fact, we can see some signs in February this year. For example, the yield on US Treasury bonds is inverted, and the increase in US net exports and government spending exceeds the increase in residents ’consumption and investment. Similar leading indicators appeared in the Internet bubble of 2000, the financial tsunami of 911 and 2008.

This epidemic is the trigger for the panic decline in global assets. Similar to the fuse in World War II, Germany struck Poland. The inevitable incident will always find the most similar and direct cause.

Is Bitcoin a safe-haven asset or digital gold?

Johnson Xu:

This is just a wishful thinking of everyone, the market reaction is not so. In the future, as the digital asset market matures, Bitcoin may slowly become a safe-haven asset. As for everyone, compare Bitcoin to digital gold, because Bitcoin is electronic and has limited production like gold. But in fact, Bitcoin's attribute of digital gold has not been seen for the time being.

With global stock markets plummeting, is Bitcoin alone?

Johnson Xu:

The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets is currently very low. There are a few reasons why Bitcoin has plummeted with traditional financial markets at the same time:

First of all, the digital asset market has risen by about 40% from January 2020 to now, exceeding the expectations of an investor. It is normal and healthy for a large correction.

Secondly, the market's overhype on bitcoin halving has caused some market participants to be afraid to miss the opportunity and enter the market. If a thing is concerned too hot, the risk will become higher and higher, resulting in more and more downside space and less and less upside space.

Once again, this time various assets such as the stock market and gold are being sold off, and Bitcoin is not immune. One reason is that the overall financial market panic caused by viruses and the global economic slowdown. People will use cash at this time. Be king, not buy these safe-haven assets. Li Minyu:

In the past 2 weeks, the trend of Bitcoin has confirmed the old saying "Under the nest, there are no eggs." For more than a decade after the birth of Bitcoin in the financial tsunami of 2008, at some point it was considered a safe-haven asset. Now, we are more inclined to position it as an alternative risk asset. I remember that on October 11, 2018, U.S. stocks crashed 4%, and the financial crisis spread. Bitcoin also fell 4.5% on the day. If the risk appetite of the investment group is consistent, the behavior will also be similar. Just as the ancients went to pawn shops to sell bracelets for rice, there is no reason not to sell other jewelry.

Du Wan, co-founder of Contract Emperor:

Affected for a while, then btc went on his own. The market is too small, and a large number of coins are concentrated in the hands of a few people unless new large funds come in.

Cryptocurrency analyst Dong Dong after 98:

The plunge of the global stock market does have some impact on cryptocurrencies that also have trading attributes. Some investors may have panic feelings, thereby closing all their financial assets and turning them into cash as a safe haven, but due to the panic nature The extreme market has occurred once on the 9th of this month, and many investment banks have issued a second bearish view. Therefore, in the future, investors will be better prepared in terms of affordability and assessment expectations, which also reduces Impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Is halving the market effective?

Johnson Xu:

The halving is an expectation that everyone in the circle knows. When everyone is crazy thinking that one thing will be achieved, it may not be achieved. Take the halving of Litecoin as an example. After halving in 2019, the price of Litecoin has plummeted, and the computing power of mining has also plummeted.

At present, the market is too hot on the topic of halving. In fact, halving is normal. The process of halving once every 4 years has been written into the Bitcoin blockchain code. This is not an unexpected surprise.

For halving, the short-term impact on the price of Bitcoin is small, and in the long-term, it will have a very positive impact on the price of Bitcoin and the ecosystem. Not every halving is the so-called good. Investors are advised to respect the market and make appropriate adjustments to their investment strategies. Li Minyu:

There are more than 2 months left until the halving, and we don't think there will be any big market before the halving. Looking back at November 2012, the two halvings in July 2016, and the four months before the halving, Bitcoin was basically sideways or rising first and then falling. From January 2020 to the present, the market has undergone a medium-sized "bull-bear conversion", which is considered to be out of similar past history. If bitcoin can consolidate at the bottom for a long time after reducing production in May this year, then it is entirely possible that a new round of big market will be opened (similar to the previous two halvings, which opened a big bull market for several years)

Chen Lei, founder of the blue whale blockchain:

My opinion on the price trend of btc is consistent. I don't think there will be a halving of the market. Without the occasional events such as Sino-US trade disputes, the conflict between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, and the world pandemic, the btc market is less likely to appear. I don't think it is a halving market now. It has nothing to do with the halving. Considering that the major economies have always been unfriendly to digital currency transactions, the restrictions on the access of institutional funds to the pipeline, and the long and short derivatives balance in the trading market, I think the currency price will continue to be around 10,000 and it will be difficult to break the historical high.

Ren DongBit founder Zhao Dong:

In my opinion, there is no such thing as a "half quotation", and the cyclical nature of finance has determined that it should be bullish this year. Moreover, whether a bull or a bear is not decisive for one up or one down, the key depends on the trend.

Winter:

In fact, from the perspective of disk data, the current bitcoin is just at the bottom of the weekly upward trend. The overall upward trend has not been disrupted. If bitcoin can always maintain a price of more than $ 7,000 in the future, this will reduce the The semi-quotation will have the effect of early accumulation.

QKL123 analyst Liu Qing:

It is time for the central banks of all countries to open and release water to really test Bitcoin. The current decline is mainly driven by the panic of the capital market. Before halving, there may still be a wave of rise; after halving, there is a high probability that there will be mad cows in one to two years in the cycle.

To make a prediction, how much will Bitcoin fall this time? How much has it risen?

Li Minyu:

If the global stock market decline does not continue to expand. Then 6000-7000 is a good point. If this year has been oscillating at this relatively low level, next year 20,000 US dollars can be expected. This time, the bottom oscillation is too short. A 6000 yuan will be pulled up to more than 1W USD. No The basis of the bull market.

Chen Lei:

BTC has now shown a tendency to deviate from gold. The entry of many derivatives has a great curbing force on unilateral rises. It is more like a commodity with a slower volatility and has not been evaluated by more people, especially institutions High-quality hedge assets are more suitable for comparison with the S & P 500 trend. It is still bullish in the long run, and I don't think it will fall too much, basically it still floats up and down around 80-10,000 US dollars.

Zhao Dong:

The lowest does not break 6000, the highest does not break 20,000.

Du Wan:

The recent 7700-8300 shock, choose after the shock, leave it alone, follow the disc away.