Behind the 20 billion monthly positions in the crypto market: who left?

"Will Bitcoin rise to $ 20,000? I believe it will. But not everyone can survive that day. A true bull, a sane coin hoarding party, should keep some cash to meet the occasional need, so They will not be forced to hand over their chips at a low price. I think this is something everyone who is optimistic about Bitcoin should know. "

Author: C14

Source: Carbon Chain Value (ID: cc-value)

"Finally out of stock."

When Xiang Tian saw that the quarterly contract with a principal of 1.2BTC was forced to close, he felt a sense of collapse. Since opening more than 5 bitcoins at $ 10,200, his heart has been hurting day by day. In order to keep abreast of the market, for a few days he even stayed until 3 or 4 in the morning every night, as if he could change his pain and suffering by staring at the disk, or the price of the currency would jump because of his scorching eyes. He was more anxious.

Several times on the way, he wanted to close his stop loss, but his companions in the speculation group told him that he could carry it again. When Bitcoin dropped to US $ 9,500, he was prepared to concede his position for the first time, but saw “the banker was washing the market, and this time he would not see US $ 10,000 of Bitcoin anymore”, he resisted.

As a result, the following day, February 26, Bitcoin fell below $ 9,000. He finally decided to close the position because it was more than he could accept, and the decline in the market was indeed too scary, and he could not predict what would happen next. However, in closing this position, he lost 50% of the principal.

In order to earn back this 50% of the principal, he had to stare at the market day and night. Although the price of Bitcoin continues to fall, Xiang Tian still believes that there is a "half-price", and he believes that it is precisely to wash off "multi-arms" like him, that the dealer violently washed the market and caused the market to plunge. All this can still come back.

Next, he watched Bitcoin fall to $ 8,400, and later began to stop falling and rebound. After eight consecutive losses, a positive line appeared, so he opened a long position again, but this time he used ten times the leverage.

"I was faint at that time, I just wanted to get back to the book quickly, and as soon as I got back to the book, I closed the position." Xiang Tian recalled. As long as it goes up by 10%, he thinks it is almost the same. The closing line he set was $ 9,300.

As can be seen from the price chart in the next few days, Bitcoin was about to rise to this position. On March 8, Bitcoin once rose to $ 9,187, and it was close to $ 123 to close the position. However, this is really beyond hope, just like you are about to fall into a cliff, someone wants to grab your hand, and you can almost touch your fingertips, but you can only miss it and fall. That is, on this day, Bitcoin opened a tragic waterfall, falling from a maximum of $ 9,187 to $ 8,398. Xiang Tian lost again.

This time, he lay down completely, losing 0.5BTC to 1.2BTC. At that time, he should close the position to withdraw the funds, but the whole person's brain is already in a state of circle. "After extreme anxiety, I became discouraged, and felt that my operation became a joke. A friend who has been doing more together tells me that since you have chosen the direction of doing more, you should do less, otherwise the principal will only increase. There are fewer and fewer. And I don't think the market will suddenly lose light. There should be a rebound after the plunge, so I chose to wait for another day. "

That is, on March 9 a day later, Bitcoin plummeted from $ 8,399 to a minimum of $ 7676, completely breaking through the Xiangtian line. The last 0.5 bitcoins were lost.

From February 14th to March 9th, in less than a month, Bitcoin was hoarded for more than half a year. Although this is not all his bitcoin (and fortunately this is not all), he still suffered heavy losses and felt the pain and ruthlessness of the contract market. In addition, his perception of Bitcoin has also undergone profound changes.

"Before, I believed that there was a halving market. Even if there is no halving market, I believe that Bitcoin can fight the global economic crisis. This is the reason why I am aggressively longing bitcoin. The epidemic is getting worse and the economic situation is getting worse. The more you swap your assets for Bitcoin. But now it looks like maybe I'm wrong. "

It is not only Xiangtian who has experienced this. In the past month, the total amount of cryptocurrency derivatives market overruns exceeded RMB 20 billion, and most of them were “multi-arms”.

01

Still bullish on the Bitcoin bull market, but I have to leave

Meng Jiu believes that he cannot be regarded as Bitcoin's dead long.

"The real dead bulls are determined to look at bitcoin to more than 20,000 US dollars, and some even 100,000 US dollars. However, I am not so optimistic. I think that this year, 13 and 14 are actually almost the same. Among the longs, I am very conservative. "

As early as Bitcoin rose to $ 8,000, Meng Jiu and a group of friends who speculated in currency speculation have determined that they can break through 10,000, and can break the previous high point to 14,000, and then end.

Unlike Xiangtian, Meng Jiu's currency speculation circle is more high-end. Their basic level of investment in the currency circle is about 1 million yuan. Although it is not a big business, they are all "old rivers and lakes."

In January, Bitcoin rose from $ 8,000 to $ 10,500, and Meng Jiu's earnings are considerable. During that time, many military blasted the Air Force, and the record was brilliant. Because ambush was done well in advance, Meng Jiu also had exceptionally rich profits. He later admitted that the gains made him more and more determined that Bitcoin could continue to rise until 14,000.

However, Meng Jiu didn't believe in halving the market at all. He said that they were all gimmicks to attract new funds to the market. However, he continued to do more, because some of the super-households he trusted told him that 14,000 was a well-planned and arranged script. After breaking the front high to attract the leek, it was necessary to gradually harvest, so it must be harvested at 5 Out a month ago.

Meng Jiu believes that the script provided by this super powerhouse is very reliable. ——If the dealer really wants to harvest more leeks, he must pull the front high and let the new leeks enter the market. But to be safe, he set his take-profit point at $ 12,000. He is also very clear that ordinary people can't grasp the opportunity to sell at the highest point, and can be profitable near $ 12,000.

People are not as good as the sky.

As a multi-army force, the recent tragic nature naturally does not need to say more, especially Meng Jiu also chose BCH as his own multi-standard. Not only have all the previous earnings been lost, they have even brought a large loss to the principal. ——In any case, this was never thought of by Meng Jiu, who claimed to be the "old river".

But Meng Jiu is not Xiangtian. He did not wait for the position to be closed, but closed the position in time on March 8 and left the market. He was unwilling to disclose the amount of his loss, but he told the value of the carbon chain, because in recent days, there have been many people who lost their homes and lost their lives. That was a loss of hundreds of thousands or even millions, enough to destroy a small middle-class family.

Considering that the economic situation is becoming increasingly severe, and there have been no small losses in the contract market, Meng Jiu can only be more cautious about subsequent operations. The layoffs are slowly coming, and he also said that the company's situation and the environment's situation will not allow him to keep the current cash flow. Therefore, Meng Jiu decided to gradually sell the bitcoin in his hand into legal currency and temporarily withdraw from the currency circle.

"This is a very difficult decision. Some friends may think that my approach is too exaggerated. I still think that Bitcoin can usher in a big bull market, but I have seen too many tragedies recently, so my heart is lightened. Big The crisis is slowly coming. Since we are alive, we should cherish the moment. Rather than making money, family, loved ones, and normal life are more important. Even if I miss the opportunity to become rich later, I do not regret it.

02

Has exchanged some coins for the house

Aran did not choose to retire. As a real big family, it is impossible to withdraw from the circle, but he has already exchanged part of Bitcoin for a house.

This part of the bitcoin is sold for around $ 9,000-10,000. At its peak, he had nearly four-digit bitcoins, and even at the current currency price, that was 500 million yuan. That number has now fallen by half. "Either you are not bullish on Bitcoin, or you are allocating assets in order to spread the risk."

Aran's way of thinking about the market is different from Xiang Tian and Meng Jiu. He is relatively indifferent. The operation strategy is also very simple, that is, if Bitcoin rises, it will sell, and if it falls, it will buy. But as for when to buy it and when to sell it, he kept taboo.

As for the sale of bitcoin to buy a house, Aran told the value of the carbon chain, which is not unusual for large households. He knew that there was a "real" mega-rich, who sold coins and bought dozens of homes in 2017-2018. "The location is a good place, and it turns out to be more valuable."

For Ran's plunge, Aran didn't react too much. In his opinion, this is normal. The leverage was too high, and no new funds entered the market. The sudden plunge was completely understandable. This incident has not changed his belief, and he is even less likely to leave the circle because of this. He also said, "I will buy a little bit back when appropriate. But I am not in a hurry right now."

Under normal circumstances, Aran does not play contracts. But if he starts, the leverage is also extremely low, twice. "Double leverage is difficult and difficult to liquidate, let alone how low my long position is. Even if I am bullish on Bitcoin, I only use this leverage. After all, such a large amount of funds, one month I think it can be a few percent. If you really want to make money, don't be too greedy.

Aran is not too worried about the coming of the big crisis. Although in general, the major crisis may devalue various assets in his hands, but he has reserved enough cash for himself, and this money can fully support him until the end of the major crisis and the asset value rises again. A large amount of cash can even support his favorite assets at some point. Perhaps in the eyes of Xiang Tian and Meng Jiu, a dangerous time is coming, but in the opinion of Aran, opportunities are coming.

"Will Bitcoin rise to $ 20,000? I believe it will. But not everyone can survive that day. A true bull, a sane coin hoarding party, should keep some cash to meet the occasional need, so I will not be forced to hand over the chips at a low price when I am down. I think this should be understood by all those who are optimistic about Bitcoin. "(At the request of the interviewee, Xiang Tian, ​​Meng Jiu, and A Ran were all Pseudonym)