Why doesn't Bitcoin look like a bull market?

Foreword: In a highly volatile crypto asset market, the short-term surge in prices will make people doubt life. There are two ways to solve the problem: first, switch to a macro perspective, and Bitcoin's more than ten years of history can give people a greater perspective and a longer-term thinking mode; second, find the basic logic of the value of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies . Is it the direction of currency evolution? Is it the direction of financial evolution? Is it more advanced technology? Everyone has different answers to these questions. Once you think about it, many problems are solved. The writer is Mark Helfman, translated by "JT" from the "Blue Fox Notes" community.

Imagine if someone told you that there is a technology that could revolutionize finance and governance. In a $ 100 trillion market, it is the leading contender and it has a huge first mover advantage. Thousands of developers are using this technology, and multiple billionaires have invested in venture capital to give it greater value, practicality, and active attention. Some countries are even using this technology to implement their monetary policies.

For many years, the adoption of this technology has been steadily increasing, but still less than 5% of the total population. Facebook, Microsoft, Ernst & Young, IBM, Walmart, JP Morgan and many other companies have also used this technology to develop new products and services for their customers.

You can buy a minority stake in this technology in exchange for some tokens that can be traded instantly with anyone, anytime, anywhere. Well, I forgot to say that the price of this coin has risen for five years in the past six years. Since its birth, its value has grown by more than 1,000,000%. Its price has also doubled in the past 12 months.

What's your reaction after listening to the introduction?

Do not. Thank you. It's too risky. It will return to zero.

This is Bitcoin today.

When you look back and see last year's price drop from 14,000 to $ 6,500, it makes people more skeptical about it.

It's dropped a lot from $ 14,000. Over the past six months, prices have been difficult to keep up with, and even collapsed before reaching $ 10,000.

Far from reaching the goal.

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin has fallen to $ 8,500. Now, some analysts predict that it will fall even lower. Some people think it will be around $ 7,900, and some people think it will be as low as $ 6,500 or even lower. (Blue Fox Notes: now around $ 7,900)

If we fall to $ 7,900, or even lower $ 6,500, then the price chart of Bitcoin is as follows: 1

Bitcoin price trend from 2010 to 2020

Does this look like a bad asset in a bear market?

If we zoom in to 15 months after the last bear market …

Suppose we did fall to $ 7,900. The chart is as follows: (Blue Fox Note: The price was about 8,500 two days ago, and we have indeed fallen to $ 7,900)

2 Bitcoin price since December 2018

Even if the price of Bitcoin drops to $ 7,900, the trend is clear. Prices are on the rise.

Of course not straight up. Does anyone see a bull market when looking at this picture?

However, people don't feel like a bull market at all …

But the bull market always opens like this. Do you remember when the US stock market rose by 40% in one year? Can not remember?

This is normal. It happened in 2009, at the end of the Great Depression.

At the time, few realized that it would kick off an 11-year bull market. Expert analysis predicts further collapse.

Sometimes it takes time for the good news to disappear, especially what is happening in traditional markets today. It seems everything is crashing.

Contrary to news reports, Bitcoin price has nothing to do with the stock market or any other asset type. We have a lot of data to prove it. However, prices may fluctuate for a week or two, but this short-term trend will disintegrate over time.

Not calling for "flying to heaven"!

To be sure, I am not saying that we will enter the bull market of the Bitcoin market. It is simply pointed out that the price of Bitcoin is still in an upward channel.

As I said before, we might fall to $ 5,400 but still be in a bull market.

But when you see the price drop from $ 14,000 to $ 6,500 and now again from $ 10,500, it's no surprise that people still fear.

People remember the big crash of 2018. These smaller, newer declines will only increase fear.

Are we now in another bitcoin bear market?

of course. However, unless there is sufficient evidence, do not easily identify it as a bear market.

Volatility does not mean that the outlook is bleak.

If you want to have the million-dollar bitcoin that everyone dreams of, then you have to endure its massive crash along the way.

Some crashes are setbacks, and some lead to actual bear markets. We have suffered setbacks, but that doesn't mean the bull market is over. —— Risk Warning: All articles of Blue Fox Note cannot be used as investment advice or recommendations. Investment is risky. Investment should consider personal risk tolerance. It is recommended to conduct in-depth inspection of the project and make good investment decisions.