Under the crisis of magic epidemic, Long Crypto, Long Gold, Long China
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For example: the global economy is still inevitably going down, and it is still uncertain when it bottoms out; the global central bank is still unavoidably continuously releasing water, and when it bottoms out indefinitely; digital currencies (including Bitcoin, sovereign digital currencies, business Digital currencies, etc.) are and are becoming part of the mainstream economy.
Combining macroeconomics, the risks and opportunities of the crypto market come from two aspects: greed and fear. A typical example is the shrinking of the gold and bitcoin markets due to the global stock market crash last week and its lack of liquidity. This is tricky, because according to the general understanding, when the risk aversion is high, and Bitcoin does not care, shouldn't gold rise as a safe-haven asset? On the one hand, the central bank is releasing water, and on the other hand, the entire market is short of water. My understanding is that the leverage ratio of the entire market is too high, so it affected the remaining assets during a major local crash.
But in turn, if there are any assets that can bottom out and then lead the next round of global economic development, I think it is crypto assets and China.
Many people dare not imagine what will happen once the financial crisis arrives. For the unimaginable global Ponzi, the essential problem is that there is too much money and too little assets, and the reason for too few assets is that the market itself is too expensive. I firmly believe that crypto assets will bring the future of millions and even millions of orders of magnitude assets. Crypto assets are the financial answer for the next era.
Regarding the impact of the epidemic on China's global economy, it now seems that Xiu Fu is suing, and Fu Xi is relying on it. Now that Apple has moved factories back to China, and in 2020 when masks become hard currency, China as a world factory has far more opportunities than risks. As a strategic safe-haven asset, gold is still optimistic until the next round of economic upswing.
So: Long Crypto, Long Gold, Long China.
If there is no financial crisis before halving, you can expect halving
Since last year, the influence of mining power on Bitcoin has become smaller and smaller. I think that after the halving, the mining power will completely fade out of the bitcoin pricing right competition, and Wall Street will become the real protagonist of crypto after halving.
Traditional financial giants and the crypto world are converging, focusing on the extent of crypto assets
At the same time, NFT combines DEX and big data, and it can introduce new financial concepts. It is generally called "Social Money" overseas. For example, the bond issued by Ding Weidi is also the encryption of in-game assets, and the main issue asset in the future. I translate it as "self-finance." Since the concept of finance, Yao Qian mentioned before. I personally, very, very optimistic about this direction. Only in this direction can it be possible to realize the financial state of the Internet era and achieve millions and even billions of assets.
Industrial blockchain and public blockchain may end up in different directions
- Industrial blockchain, which represents data services;
- The financial blockchain represents technology finance based on distributed books.
Financial blockchain, distributed book-based technology finance, or opening up the financial and crypto markets, have always been my focus.
When it comes to finance, things get complicated. In this half year, I feel that the concept of "blockchain" is being attributed to the industrial blockchain in China. Although I think the development direction of the financial direction is greater, will it still be called "blockchain" in China? do not know. The domestic definition of the blockchain is that it needs to serve the real economy, which puts a hat on the blockchain. The domestic blockchain should be called "industrial blockchain data service", and it will be full of things in 2016-2017.
From this perspective, the concept of "blockchain" has been narrowed. Now when we talk about the issue of coins, it seems that it should not belong to the blockchain. When something becomes more and more "clean", it cannot be called "financial".
The funny thing is, what do you think is the application of "education field" of blockchain? ——It is to chain the result of CET 4.
The information I received was at the end of last year. The situation at the end of last year was that industrial blockchain data service providers made money by taking orders. After taking the list, I want to make money for the annual maintenance fee. If there is a longer-term idea, it is money to make traffic, and what is this traffic? Traffic is the application that developers and developers will develop in the future.
What are developers and applications developed by developers? I think it is the combination of various defi, nft and internet that is already common in the crypto market. Of course, this is just a guess.
I think that the industrial blockchain and the current public chain will eventually achieve the same goal, but this inflection point needs to be promoted by important events, especially in China, which is likely to be promoted by regulation.
There are two possible directions for domestic action, one is digital currency, and the other is the application of the securities market.
I attach more importance to the application of the securities market. After the chaos is eliminated, the regular army enters the market and promotes finance in the next era. From the content of Yao Qian's speech, it can be found that Yao Qian's research on blockchain has gradually shifted from the beginning of currency to a more comprehensive field of securities. In my opinion, currency is a special kind of security. Securities are the more common form of finance.