Short and long logic consistency

The empty position is a holiday surprise for the USDT to the currency circle. According to the general counsel of the USDT Stabilizing Coin: as of April 30, only about 74% of the USDT stable currency is supported by legal equivalents.

What is the risk aversion attribute?

Therefore, in order to avoid risks, the trading investors have bought the USDT in their hands to avoid the risk. Originally thought that the market is not good, the USDT is a safe currency, and it has never been thought to become a disturbing time. Bomb, may detonate at any time.

It is foreseeable that over time, the USDT problem will return to calm, as if nothing has happened. The only change is that in the volatility of a wave of investors, the USDT is so volatile that it can not help but doubt the USDT. What is the nature of risk aversion?

The competition for stable currencies is becoming increasingly fierce, but usdt cannot be replaced at least in the short term, even if the doubts about fraud have been there.

Short-selling news is endless, what might you ask about the underlying logic of the short-selling market?

What I want to say is that the short-selling power is the driving force for the rise. The air force in the market is hated. I once thought so, and later changed my opinion, and then went on to see a short story in the US securities market.

a short seller

James Chanos is the president of the New York Knicks Fund Company, the world's largest short-term fund company, managing $3.3 billion in funds, not doing anything else, only looking for bad companies to go short.

He also often speaks everywhere, and every time he talks about "the power of reverse thinking" and "the social value of the short", the students are particularly excited. Chanos said: "Group thinking requires that you only have a positive thinking, you can only look at listed companies from a good perspective, buy stocks to make their stock prices rise, think that is positive energy. And if you use reverse thinking, Everyone thinks that you are not gregarious. If you further short stocks, you are even more negative energy.

Therefore, reverse thinking and reverse investment are not something that everyone can do.

Of course, if shorting is forbidden, there are more people with reverse thinking, and there is no way to play an active role in the market. Therefore, allowing short selling is a prerequisite.

He firmly believes that short-selling is a tool for counterfeiting if used properly.

Chanos was born in Wisconsin in 1957 and is far from Wall Street.

He is the boss of the three brothers, his father opened a dry cleaning chain, and his mother worked in a steel factory. When he was in the fifth grade of elementary school, his father let him touch the stock market, and he was fascinated. He went to Yale University to study economics.

In 1980, he graduated from Yale University and joined a securities company as an analyst to study various listed companies.

He soon discovered that what he is best at is not the reason to invest in listed companies, but to find out whether they have financial fraud, exaggerated prospects and even suspected fraudulent investors, which is his excitement.

Earlier, Chanos explored the inside of the unknown scandal, mainly through the media to influence the market and expose falsehood.

In 1982, when Baldwin's joint insurance company was sought after by Wall Street investors, the stock price had been rising, which made Chanos doubtful. Then he wrote a research report suggesting to sell the stock of the insurance company. His analysis immediately angered the public, not only offended the Wall Street seller who only sang much, but a lawyer also called to help the boss in North, saying that he would sue him.

Just as Chanos had an argument with the insurance company, a Contributor in Forbes magazine learned about the incident and began a follow-up investigation. He visited Chanos and obtained the research materials provided by Chanos. At the same time, ask the CEO of the insurance company.

After several months of investigation, in December 1982, Forbes published an article that pulled out the problem of the insurance company, and the conclusion was consistent with the previous analysis by Chanos. A few months later, the insurance company's share price went to the front and officially filed for bankruptcy. This was the biggest corporate failure in history.

In 1984, Chanos began to trace the wasteland kingdom of Wall Street, De Chong Securities Co., the company that was the "junk bond king" Michael Milken. During that time, due to his sharp questions and analytical conclusions, the other party hired a special private detective to track him and even searched for trash cans outside his house. Later, the securities company collapsed and Milken also went to jail for insider trading. This is another big record of Chanos.

With these experiences, Chanos thought that the role of investment banking analysts really is not suitable for him, because seller analysts must sing more, only then, investment banks can get the financing business of listed companies, in order to have trading commissions. And the investment bank analyst report is published publicly. Every time he releases the bearish report, he will encounter a lot of troubles and even be threatened by security. Why not set up a hedge fund, go short according to your own analysis, and make money directly?

Thus, in 1985, Chanos invested $16 million in the principal to set up the Knicks Fund Company, which specializes in short selling, that is, borrowing stocks from securities companies, selling them first, and then buying back the stocks when the stock price falls to a certain point. other side. Chanos’s fund is notorious for his fame, especially his short-selling deal.

In October 2000, he began to study Enron stocks and found that Enron’s financial problems were serious, exaggerating revenue and profits. The following year, he began to short the Enron stock. After Enron’s exposure to the media, Chanos continued to increase. The big short position; when Enron went bankrupt, he bought back the Enron stock at a negligible price, and the fund made a big profit, and his reputation also rose.

Another success of Chanos is that in 2006 he judged that the US real estate market was in a serious bubble and began to short the real estate developers and banks with large loans. After the subprime mortgage crisis continued to deepen in 2007, he believed that the crisis would spread to many economic sectors, and his fund extended the short-selling to many other industries.

In Chanos's view, the bubble is a false prosperity. Shorting bubble stocks and bubble assets is equivalent to counterfeiting. It is to correct the fraudulent behavior with specific actions, forcing the market to return to economic rationality and return to financial discipline.

Short selling is a correction of the market

Shorting is constantly correcting the market, and the valueless objects will be shorted to zero, precisely because zeroing is their ultimate destination.

The same is true in the currency circle. In the bull market, various cottage garbage coins are flying in a random way. It is not a rational market in itself. In particular, marketing projects will quickly attract investors’ attention, risk increases sharply, and there are unidentified speculators. In the fire, the market will give them severe punishment.

In the encryption market, only the depth of Bitcoin is eligible for the online futures market. Before the passage of the Chicago futures, the bit price skyrocketed, the cottage flew, and the real rush of Chicago futures all the way, resulting in a bear market in 2018. Some people accuse the greedy financiers of Wall Street of harvesting bitcoin and emptying bitcoin with the air, causing the market to collapse. But is this really the case?

The fact is that in the course of the entire market downturn in 2018, countless counterfeit projects surfaced, zeroed, running and tearing constantly, USDT thunder continued, and every time a USDT parent company Tether was suspected of fraud In 2018, the bull market is the prosperity of the encryption market caused by the over-issued USDT.

Known as the 2018 Tianwang private placement, at present, the only normal level is ONT. As for other rsk generations, the orchid agreement and even the currency are not traced, let alone the GOT of a fake project from beginning to end.

It is the Chicago futures that short-selling bitcoin that makes the false projects in the market look like they are using reverse thinking.

Then the question is coming, is reverse thinking always effective?

Obviously impossible. From the point of view of dialectics, everything is extremely anti-objective. There is no short-selling and short-selling. The market is full of uncertainties. It is precisely because of uncertainty that price is extremely difficult to grasp. thing.

The process from the Air Force to the multi-military has been going on for a few years, and the short ones have turned around. The most important thing is to grasp your position. The most dangerous thing is that you always make money in a single direction. The pleasure of making money confuses you. You think you can always make money in one direction. In fact, when you have similar ideas, it is The beginning of your loss.

In essence, the investment market is a probability. The rise and fall seem to be very simple. There are countless possibilities, and only when the probability of rising is greater than the probability of falling is the opportunity to shoot.

So we understand that the logic of shorting and doing more is the same. In essence, it is optimistic about the unified market. Some people short the bitcoin to earn more bitcoin. It does not mean that he is not optimistic about the future of bitcoin. Shorting is right. One of the corrections to market fanaticism is precisely because of this correction, the bubble of cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin and other fraudulent items are squeezed out.

Today, the logic of the short market is explained and the relationship between long and short is explained. It seems to be a useless work. However, we need to establish an investment system. Concept and logic are the most important cornerstones. Otherwise, we will use a torch to pass the arsenal. I only know that I don’t know why I am confused.

As for the logic of investment market probability theory, it will be discussed in more depth in the future.