After Bitcoin plummeted 50%, do you feel the bottom is true?

Original: Coin Nuggets

This week is the most tragic week for most investors in the currency industry. The broader market starts from more than 8,000 US dollars, and the two heavy volume waterfalls have lowered to a minimum of 3,500 US dollars. With us, the account funds have shrunk by more than 1/2 and the market Confidence was hit hard.

Judging from the decline, this is the largest decline in BTC in recent years. This is far from being as simple as the dealer's hitting the market. It is a systemic risk. Let's look at a few sets of data:

The first is the long-to-short ratio of BTC leverage. When the halving market broke out before, there was a potential risk of high leverage, and it was easy to cause a series of short positions due to sudden declines. From these several BTC fluctuations of more than 20% and amplitudes of more than 30-50%, even lower leverage multiples are useless and can trigger the system's mandatory liquidation risk.

The BTC L / L ratio plummeted from a high of 32.99 on February 18, to the current 0.1, a drop of 99.6%. This data, on the one hand, illustrates the cruelty of the market. After several consecutive plunges, the people who borrowed USDT leverage from the system to trade were basically all blown out. The loss of these investors could not be predicted.

On the other hand, the current market leverage is extremely low, which means that not many people play leveraged transactions. The logic behind it is that investors are generally pessimistic about the market outlook, far more pessimistic than we feel.

The second is the BTC contract positions. The downward trend is obvious. From the high point of more than 12 million contracts to the current 3.6 million contracts, it has dropped by 70%. The current BTC contract position levels have reached historical lows.

This data also reflects that the market has completely entered the bear market from the previous bull market. The cold winter is approaching and the hope of a short-term reversal is shattered.

The last is the liquidation data. The liquidation data best reflects the market situation. With reference to Coin data, the entire network has sold out 9 billion U.S. dollars in the past 30 days. Among them, many single short positions have occupied a large proportion, indicating that the market's bull power has been wiped out. How can the subsequent market rise?

Although the market can be changed short or long, we do not know whether this part of the main short will continue to stay in the market after the victory, or the funds have gradually withdrawn from the market, if it is the latter, it is even worse .

From the above data, the cryptocurrency market is currently at a low leverage and low contract holdings level, the bubble has been removed, and everything is back to the starting point, but the market is also greatly damaged, and the funds in the market are exhausted, leaving only Investors who are trapped at a high level are worried about the market outlook. At least for a long period of time, it is inevitable to recuperate.

In the general environment, the impact of the epidemic is still spreading throughout the world, and its influence on the economy cannot be underestimated. The global financial markets have also entered the darkest moment. Multinational stock markets have triggered fuses, crude oil has plummeted, and even gold has become a safe-haven asset. It is not immune. Although there are fiscal and monetary policies to rescue the market, it is unknown how effective it can be.

In the current situation, systemic risks have come. We need to consider not only the issue of a currency or a market, but a holistic thinking. We must be aware of the seriousness of the situation, and even have the core assets to support it. U.S. stocks can plummet by 30% in a short period of time. In comparison, Bitcoin, an asset supported by belief, can only worsen when the belief collapses. There is nothing impossible.

From 2020 until now, we only hope that the epidemic will end as soon as possible and that the global stock market and economy will gradually improve. In this way, only when the general environment stabilizes, can the incremental funding come in.

Back to the market, yesterday to today, BTC deep V rebounded, but has it stabilized? Not really.

At the hourly level, we can see that there is a large amount of energy near the low point, but this amount of energy is likely to be just a short liquidation. It does not mean that the market has a lot of funds. Involved, this can be seen from the subsequent quantitative energy has not been significantly enlarged, the subsequent market is still confusing.

In the short term, BTC has entered the shrinking consolidation phase. The strong pressure above is 6,000 US dollars, which is close to the finishing interval after the previous waterfall. It is also the one-hour MA60 moving average pressure position. You can see the results this weekend.

But even if it can break through, it must mean that the market will rebound again? It is not necessarily. The key is to have funds to enter the market. The longs in the market have been eliminated. There is no incremental capital to promote, no new story, how does the market go? Everything is cautious.

At the end of the article, reply to a question that everyone is most concerned about: copying the bottom.

Since the market fell in mid-February, I have been urged in the article not to rush to the bottom and wait for the market to stabilize, but now the price of BTC is indeed at a low point relative to the historical point. How can the price below 6000 US dollars not be low? After a slight rebound, it will break through. The key question is whether you can withstand the torment when the currency price continues to fall after the bottom, and whether your position can wait until the solution Time is coming.

Therefore, do not persuade the bottom line now, it is more that you have to learn to think, is it bottom line for you? What is called "bottom", when BTC falls from 10500 to 8-9K, is it bottom? Is it near 6000? The bottom that everyone thinks is actually purely based on feelings. Bitcoin has fallen to $ 6,000. Do you think: If you have fallen so much, you should rise?

In fact, it does n’t matter if it ’s more than empty, it must not be your subjective judgment, but a rigorous analytical thinking and data verification. The market has its own rules. If we only trade by feeling, losing money is a high probability event.

I hope everyone thinks about it, invest rationally, and don't bet your own lives on so-called beliefs, feelings, or blind optimism. After all, investing is your own business and you are always responsible for your investment behavior.