Babbitt Cloud Summit Mining Forum | Is the bull market still here? Top Mining Players Teach You Cheats

On March 16th, the "Wind Resurgence · 2020-Babbitt Global Partner Cloud Summit" hosted by Babbitt officially opened.

In the first live broadcast of the Mining Forum, we invited four mining miners, including Panda Miner and Niubi COO Yang Xiao, solemn CEO of BTC.com, Lorry, industry research director of Amber Group, and Chen Lei, founder of Bit Blue Whale. they think:

1. The outbreak of the halving market should be half a year to one year after the halving. The so-called bull market is not over.

2. Not only the bull market is over, but also a new round of bear market has begun. I don't know when it will come out. Don't rush to think about how to do a rebound, more is to save cash and prepare for the winter.

3. I think the bull market has not come yet, and it may be delayed for a long time. But it does not rule out that a violent violent rise will occur after two or three months.

4. In the new era, miners need to learn to use more financial derivatives to form protection for their own interests.

5.The story of bitcoin as digital gold can no longer be told, and most bitcoins have also been dug out. In the next 4 years, there is no way to bring bitcoin to a larger market space, and it is difficult to open a new rise Imagination space, the 17-year bull market is difficult.

6. When the mining disaster is underway, it is obvious that it is difficult to get out of a V-shaped reversal within one or two months.

7. From experience, miners can basically eat a whole period of bull market, but speculative coins often eat fish heads and run away.

8. You have to ask me to say that I think the cost of a bitcoin is equivalent to 80% -90% of the current currency price. For more details, please see the following live content, organized and released by Babbitt:

Question 1. What are you and your business busy with?

Panda Miner & Niubit Yang Xiao

Founded in 2014, Panda Mining Machine is the world's first batch of digital currency miners. At present, the business is divided into four main lines of business: mining hardware, mining infrastructure, miner services, and ecological expansion, covering the global miner community.

The halving and the high water period are coming. Recently, the mine business in the high water period has been laid out. At the same time, as one of the world's oldest cloud computing platforms, Niubibit cloud computing platform is also working hard to help more small miners to seize mining dividends.

The market slump has an impact on our half-year plan, but we believe that "crisis" and "opportunity" coexist.

BTC.com solemn

I am an old miner who has been in contact with Bitcoin at the end of 2012. The focus of BTC.com is still the mining pool. The mining pool is a channel connecting miners and upstream and downstream resources. This year, we will cooperate with all parties through this platform to eventually serve the miners.

Amber Group Lorry We are a financial services organization specializing in crypto assets, which was established in 2017.We can help our clients to realize all-round financial services such as crypto asset trading and asset risk management. Recently we are pushing a USD OTC platform www.amberotc.com.

Bit Blue Whale Chen Lei

Based on the mining industry, we provide full-process services to the entire mining industry chain. The plunge has directly affected 60,000 machines in our mine. A small number of machines have to be prepared for shutdown, and we are actively responding.

Question 2: Is the halving bull market over?

Panda Miner & Niubit Yang Xiao

The market has been beaten by those who have halved their predictions. Why did they fall? It can only be said that there are too many factors affecting the price of Bitcoin, and the black swan is too dark. Now to analyze and lay out the global economic situation, everyone needs to hold rational psychological expectations.

Looking back at the previous two halvings, it was found that the market will inevitably fluctuate within a certain range before and after the halving, and the halving of the market should be half a year to one year after the halving. The so-called bull market, I think, is not over.

However, the impact of halving on mining is very important. If there is no sharp rise in currency prices after halving, it is expected that there will be 30E-40E mining machinery in the entire network in May. If the price of currency drops, the reduction in computing power may be even greater. In the end, all miners will compete for lower electricity costs and lower power consumption, and the characteristics of the "arms race" will be further highlighted. However, in the end, a dynamic balance of mining revenue will eventually be formed.

In the medium and long term, we remain optimistic. Therefore, we will first focus on the flood season, and the availability of ultra-low electricity prices during the flood season will play a key role in mining competition. Last year we added two new mines in Sichuan, and this year we expect to add another 1-2 mines during the wet season. For users, we will launch some mining or financial properties products that are more suitable for low-threshold entry to help everyone enjoy the dividends brought by halving the mining output.

Yang Xiao

BTC.com solemn

Before we all said that Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset, it may avoid some small crises, and today we are facing a global crisis (it has failed). But the crisis will eventually pass, and it will certainly bring opportunities afterwards. Right now, everyone should ensure the stability of the current business and then live.

Before the halving, everyone felt that it was not so strong, because the industrial scale was not very large at that time, and the situation of large-scale mining machinery was not touched at that time. We must first ensure business stability, reduce all aspects of expenditure, and then increase additional revenue. Such as the machine gun pool business. For example, we cooperate with other third parties to provide digital financial products that serve miners.

Amber Group Lorry

Judging from the big market, not only the bull market is over, but also a new round of bear market has begun. It is not yet known when it will come out. Don't rush to think about how to do a rebound, more is to save cash and prepare for the winter.

Bit Blue Whale Chen Lei

We often talk about the halving cycle may bring a bull market, I think it has not come yet, and it may be delayed for a long time.

At present, European and American countries are very weak in responding to the epidemic situation. This is beyond everyone's expectation. At present, the capital market's judgment on epidemic control is very pessimistic. If the traditional capital market continues to dive, it will be difficult for them to allocate large funds to the digital currency market.

One of the fundamental reasons for the current plunge is that the traditional financial markets are seriously lacking in liquidity due to the epidemic, and they need to use bitcoin to cash in. It will also bring panic in the digital currency market, which will cause a chain reaction.

If the European and American capital markets continue to replenish liquidity, Bitcoin's most dangerous situation may not be able to hold $ 3,000. We estimate that the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is relatively optimistic. It may reach its peak in about one month and there will be hope in about two months. From this point of view, the time when the epidemic situation was most pessimistic happened to have encountered a halving of Bitcoin's computing power and a change in abundance. Therefore, my judgment is that the bull market may be delayed for a long time.

Of course, it can't be ruled out that retaliatory sharp rise will occur after two or three months. But it is more likely that the bull market will be delayed for a long time.

This is a big challenge for the industry, but our expectation for the future is that the plunge will also create some space. I think there are market expectations of two to three times the increase.

Today, first, you need to manage your cash flow. Second, hold the chips. Third, make good preparations. There must be a chance for a bottom-sweep this year.

Question 3: What do you think of the mining development trend?

Panda Miner & Niubit Yang Xiao

From the perspective of the mining industry as a whole, the global financial black swan has indeed brought too much uncertainty to the mining industry, and the pace of halving the market has been disrupted. However, if the logic of the currency standard shows that the old machine is shut down, it may make more money for the miners who are still mining. The nature of mining as an "arms race" is further highlighted.

Compared to Bitcoin, this year's graphics card has some advantages. For example, in the second half of the year, the size of the DAG file of ETH will soon reach 4g. At that time, the graphics card with 4g will be eliminated, and the graphics card with 4G or more will get excess revenue. We have seen that some miners are gradually increasing the layout of the graphics card. In addition, FPGA and IPFS miners are also very hot, and we are also making layouts to respond to the more diverse demands of miners.

We believe that the three core factors that determine whether mining is profitable—currency price, computing power, and electricity costs.

In terms of electricity costs: When the price goes down, electricity costs will become the key factor for the survival of the mining machine. Whoever has the lower electricity price resources has the advantage. Computing power: It is necessary to choose a machine with a lower power consumption ratio in order to form a stronger competitiveness in the dynamic competition of mining revenue. Bull market speculation and bear market mining, finding a suitable entry point for the mining machine will gain double benefits of coin growth and mining machine premium in the future market. In terms of currency price: at a relatively high currency price, or calculate a price point that you can accept, form hedging through tools such as option futures to hedge risks. In the new era, miners are no longer dead investors, or they need to learn to use more financial derivatives to form their own interests.

We believe that mining is still a medium-to-long-term issue and cannot be faced with a too short-term perspective. More patience is needed for the market.

Question 4: How do you see this year's development trend from the perspective of the mining pool? How to invest in small coins?

BTC.com solemn

From last year or the previous year, possibly earlier, competition in mining pools has become increasingly fierce, and fees and revenues have become increasingly transparent. The mining pool must have a certain scale to ensure the security of its own business. This fall may lead to the mining pool wanting to operate normally, which will require a higher proportion of network computing. Then, many people will worry that the computing power may tend to be concentrated again.

Now, users have more and more requirements for the services provided by mining pools. We must develop in the direction of scale, formalization, and even business diversification.

Therefore, we will first polish the product to provide miners with more key data. Second, we will support more currencies. In addition, there are many service providers upstream and downstream of the mining pool. We may cooperate with them to provide a more complete and one-stop service for miners.

In the future, ore will certainly not be a stand-alone state. The mining pool business will usually rely on a larger business. It may be a mining machine manufacturer, it may be an exchange, it may be a financial service platform, etc. Big products provide more basic services for miners. In the future, whoever can help users connect more resources, solve more problems, provide more revenue, and develop in a more diversified and community-oriented direction, and help users to manage coins, will have an advantage.

Because the larger businesses behind the mining pools are all different, there will be some differences in products and operation methods. At present, the connection of the mining industry to downstream industries has not yet reached a very mature level, such as docking with international manufacturers, maintenance, and second-hand sales. This also requires us to cooperate with the three parties.

solemn

Question 5: Financial derivatives are the main theme of 2019. What are the opportunities in 2020? Where is the risk?

Amber Group Lorry

Prior to this plunge, the industry's trend was to increase leverage, and expect funds from outside the circle to come in to lift cars and make a fortune together. As a result, after violent deleveraging, I think the industry will be more rational. BTC will be treated as a risk asset, and asset allocation and cash flow management issues need to be considered. There will also be financial consulting needs. Previously, our financial service providers were providing these services for free, and it may develop into new businesses in the future.

In 2020, there is a huge amount of uncertainty in the industry. As a risk asset, Bitcoin's trend is certainly inevitable from the impact of global financial markets. We should first pay attention to the situation of external financial markets. Then we reflect on it. We always think that Bitcoin is digital gold and can resist inflation. Today, this story should not be told. So how do we position Bitcoin next? Then let more people join this ecology?

In addition, most of Bitcoin has been mined, so this year's halving is the last cycle. If there is no way to bring Bitcoin to a larger market space in the next 4 years, it will still stay in small payments. Or asset storage, I think it will be difficult to open up new imagination space. Like the 17-year bull market, it is difficult to have that kind of opportunity.

Bit Blue Whale Chen Lei

We said that bitcoin is no longer like digital gold, it is more and more like a commodity, and this intermediate derivative has played a big role.

Today, I think a big opportunity is the integration of online and offline. For example, the combination of online exchanges, traffic platforms, and offline mines, and this combination may bring some new opportunities for derivatives, such as the full life cycle or a package of financial services for the online shopping industry. .

The second is the mining machine mortgage loan, which is to mortgage the mining machine to borrow money. With the standardization of risk control and business processes and the increase of upstream service providers, it will develop greatly.

Third, the financial services required by the mining industry are cyclical and fragmented. Traditional financial services cannot meet demand. Although it is difficult to do, there will be opportunities. For example, cloud computing power may bring some new financial services opportunities.

But the risks are always there. All financial derivatives and financial services are essentially leveraged, and leveraged must bear the risk of deleveraging then.

Chen Lei

Question 6: How do you serve miners when using financial derivatives to preserve and increase wealth?

Amber Group Lorry

Let's take pig farming as an example. The pork has risen. More people go to pig farming. After the quantity increases, the price drops. Its periodicity is obvious. Bitcoin is different. No matter how the price rises, its supply is always the same and very abnormal.

If you want to gain more share, you only have to participate in an arms race or you will be eliminated. and. Many bitcoin miners are believers. He digs coins and stores them. This caused him to have a tight cash flow, but to participate in an arms race. As a result, he could only go to mortgage and borrow, and this time there was a situation of tying. Our mortgage lending business has some advantages, such as good prices. For example, we can implement some other financial solutions, such as put options, to hedge against the risk of plunge. For example, we have an OTC trading platform (www.amberotc.com), which can help miners open long or short positions with collateral and have more options.

Question 7: Is Xiaobai investor better at buying cloud computing power or buying coins? Or buy a miner directly?

Panda Miner & Niubit Yang Xiao

Is it better to mine or buy coins directly? This requires asset allocation and product selection based on their own circumstances. Mining is a low-cost way to obtain Bitcoin, but the process is relatively long. Buying coins is a direct and simple way to store coins, but chasing gains and losses is not conducive to maintaining a rational state every day. From experience, miners can basically eat a whole period of bull market, but speculative coins often eat fish heads and run away.

If you are a user with a large amount of funds and seeking stable returns, the mining foundation is your best option. They will customize the investment scheme for you based on your investment preferences and risk acceptance.

Compared with mining, this off-line form of cloud computing power will appear simpler and more convenient. As long as you subscribe online, you can mine. Cloud computing users are mostly people who cannot directly purchase mining machines and deploy them to the mine. They are like "newborns" who have just come into contact with mining. They need to carefully educate the platform and try their best to maintain their assets. If you want to obtain mining profits directly, it is similar to just one financial investment, and you don't want to deal with the complex operation and maintenance risks in the middle. Then I suggest you choose cloud computing power products.

Cloud computing power is our business direction for vigorous development in 2020.

We also find that too many cloud computing platforms have fluctuated over the past few years. There are two types of elimination: one is a pseudo-cloud computing platform, there is no physical backing behind the shell that covers the cloud computing power, and the subsequent fund chain breaks the platform to run; the other is an insufficient evaluation of the operational risk of the cloud computing platform In the end, the platform was destroyed due to various risk outbreaks. At present, the market has re-entered a period of rapid growth, and investors need to discern carefully to avoid stepping into the pit.

Question 8. What is the current mining cost? Is the so-called "mine disaster" coming? Can I still mine now?

Panda Miner & Niubit Yang Xiao

Starting from the nature and characteristics of mining. In the long run, the old machine will be eliminated every time period. This is a normal metabolism. It holds stable new models and strengthens its competitive advantage in computing power. In the short term, due to the current downturn, mining will have certain risks.

Mining looks at the long-term, don't just focus on short-term benefits, so at the moment when the machine is oversold, a low bottom will be a good opportunity. Choose reliable service providers to provide you with one-stop services, such as us.

Bit Blue Whale Chen Lei

In fact, mining does not consider the problem from the perspective of mining costs, because mining involves many different dynamic factors, entry costs, methods, different operating strategies, cash reserves, etc., and it is difficult to calculate the cost. But you have to ask me, so I think the cost of a bitcoin is equivalent to 80% -90% of the current price of the currency.

At present, I think it is already a mining disaster, and there are two important time nodes. First, Bitcoin is halved. Second, the price of Bitcoin has shown no signs of stabilizing. I think it is a bit difficult for Bitcoin to hold the 3000 line, and we need to pay attention to the response of traditional capital markets.

But this year there must be opportunities for layout mining. Whether this time point is after one month or two or three months later, we cannot easily estimate it.

Amber Group Lorry

I also think it is a mine disaster now. Obviously, it is difficult to get out of a V-shaped reversal within one or two months.

Lorry

BTC.com solemn

I made a rough calculation, about 29,000 RMB (about 4000 USD). If it is said that S19 may be below 20,000. Now must be the time of the mine disaster. But I think the arms race can still be played, as long as there is no extreme market. Mine disasters will definitely squeeze some people out, and "critical" and "opportunities" coexist, and we must still do a good job in the layout of mining.

Question 9: What advice do you have for cryptocurrency participants now? What is your expectation of halving?

Panda Miner & Niubit Yang Xiao

Mining has passed the era of absolute riches, and "risks" and "opportunities" coexist.

BTC.com solemn

It is recommended to control your own leverage, and any investment needs to control your own leverage risk.

Everyone must usually have a sense of risk and do hedging of mining profits. Take advantage of it. For investors, I think we still have to improve our cognitive level as much as possible. For example, you need to understand what the investment is, what are their development directions, and where are their future values ​​and space?

The bear market will not pass so quickly. At least a few months are needed. We must be prepared. If there is already leverage, then we must find a way to reduce it as much as possible. There is always a chance of rebound and live safely. Wait for new trends to come out before making profits.

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