Source: Securities Daily
Reporter: Xing Meng
For the Bitcoin industry chain, mid-March is the most "dark" period in recent years when people's "faith" is facing collapse. In the course of the global capital market shock, the myth of Bitcoin's "hedging assets" also lapsed, plunging from nearly $ 8,000 on March 12 to the $ 4,000 line, and then repeatedly fluctuating between $ 4,000 and $ 6,000. It was not until March 20 that the Bitcoin price struggled to return above $ 6,000 and was locked at $ 6200 as of press time.
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This sudden plunge has brought a huge disaster to the mining circle, which is heavily dependent on the price of coins. "Securities Daily" reporter found that in the current round of digital currency "mine circle" investigation, found that more than 40 mining machines have hit the shutdown price, many small and medium-sized miners have been "persuaded", the tide of mining machine sales has emerged.
Although the price of bitcoin has picked up over the weekend, miners can only expect this to be "the beginning of good luck" rather than "the intermission of bad luck".
Bitcoin goes dark for 8 days
2.3 million ants S9 forced to shut down
In mid-March, Bitcoin experienced 8 days of the lowest price in recent years.
On March 12, Bitcoin fell on a cliff, and the price of the whole day dropped from nearly 8,000 US dollars to below 4,200 US dollars. One of the most horrible periods fell 16.78% in one hour. The following week, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $ 4,000 and $ 6,000. According to CoinMarketCap data, from March 12th to 19th, the lowest price of bitcoin was $ 4,185 (March 12), and the highest price was $ 5,773 (March 16).
These 8 days are almost the hardest 8 days for people in the mining industry. Digital currency mining pool F2pool Yuchi online data show that as of March 19, based on electricity costs of 0.38 yuan per kilowatt-hour, 45 mainstream Bitcoin mining machines have reached the shutdown price. If it is turned on and running, each miner will lose 0.49 yuan to 28.72 yuan per day, including "machine emperor" miners such as Ant S9 miner. "According to F2pool's calculation data of the entire network, roughly 2.3 million ants S9 have been shut down from March 10 to now." An industry insider told the Securities Daily reporter.
"Securities Daily" reporter investigated the mining circle and found that the sluggish currency price has triggered the emergence of mining machine selling tide. "Under the influence of the epidemic, the difficulty of maintaining, renewing and continuing production of mining machines has further increased, and the '3 · 12' plunge has put many mines on sale. The tide of mining machine selling has already occurred, and the average selling price of each mining machine It is 30% -50% lower than before the Spring Festival. "Wu Tong, deputy director of the CECBC Blockchain Commission of the Ministry of Commerce and dean of the Digital Economy Business School, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter.
After this round of slump, small and medium-sized miners in the mining circle began to "persuade". Many small and medium-sized miners hold relatively old, cost-effective models such as the Ant S9 miner, with less investment and a long payback period. Because the equipment is relatively backward, coupled with higher electricity costs, the ability to resist risks is weak. In this situation, this group of people is the most vulnerable.
It is understood that the miners that reach the shutdown price are mostly older models with poor performance, and the holders are mostly small and medium-sized miners. For "All in" miners, most of their personal assets are cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Under the plunge, miners are not only facing shutdown, but their net worth is also shrinking.
In fact, not only the miners, but the slump of bitcoin have also caused a great impact on the owners. OKEx Research researchers analyzed the "Securities Daily" reporter that on the one hand, many mines are still using the Ant S9 mining machine for mining, and now the price of bitcoin has plummeted, and the bitcoin revenue obtained by mining is far lower than the lost electricity bill. Older models like Ant S9 basically need to be shut down, but the costs of plant rent and depreciation of mining equipment still exist, so the loss of the mine owner is quite large. "On the other hand, a while ago, affected by the industry's" halving market ", many mine owners expected that the price of bitcoin would rise, so some mine owners would increase leverage to buy cash. After the price of Bitcoin collapsed, increase leverage Mine owners will lose even more. "
Bitcoin drops to $ 2,600
Will be in shock or death
In the shutdown list, the leading products of the three major mining machine manufacturers in the world frequently appear. "Securities Daily" reporter found F2pool Yuchi online data statistics found that out of the 45 mainstream Bitcoin mining machines, 27 are from the three major mining machine manufacturers, accounting for more than half. Among them, Bitmain has the most ant series miners, including 11 models including the Ant S9 model; Canaan's Avalon series miners have 10 models; Yibang International's wing bit series miners have 6 models.
Because highly volatile cryptocurrencies can hardly sustain sustainable profits, the regulators are particularly cautious in applying for listing of mining machine manufacturers. Jia Nan Yunzhi started to prepare for listing in 2016, but it has successively switched to the GEM and the New Third Board, and then turned to Hong Kong for listing in 2018. Finally, at the end of 2019, the company listed on the US stocks with Jianan Technology as the main body, but it was not optimistic for investors. The stock was broken on the first day of listing. After a few months, the stock price per share fell to US $ 3, which is already lower than the issue price of US $ 9. Very different. In addition, Bitmain and Ebang International have also submitted listing applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but they have never heard of them.
The drop in the price of bitcoin has also had a significant negative impact on the three major mining machine manufacturers. "For the listed mining machine maker Jianan Technology, the bitcoin plunge will seriously affect its first quarter 2020 financial statements, and it will also affect the stock price to a certain extent. For unlisted mining machine makers, the difficulty of listing will increase. A level, because the uncertainty of its future expected income has greatly increased. "Wu Tong said.
If Bitcoin falls further, it will have a disastrous impact on the mining circle. Guosheng Securities analyzed in the research report that if the current price range is maintained, all individual miners using backward machines and high electricity prices will have to shut down; if the currency price drops another 25% to 30%, there will be about one-third of the entire network. Lagging machines will not be profitable during periods of high electricity prices, and their computing power will be reduced by about one-third accordingly. At this time, only advanced machines with low energy consumption can continue to mine, and the income measured by these people in terms of the currency standard will be greatly improved due to the decline in the computing power of the entire network.
"If the price of the currency continues to fall below the shutdown price of the current best performing Ant S17 (approximately $ 2,600), then the Bitcoin network will come to a standstill. Technically, Bitcoin will enter a state of shock or death." OKEx Research Researchers emphasize that although bitcoin is now becoming widely known, it is still a niche, high-risk alternative investment product. Its market value is not even as large as that of many technology companies, but its volatility is several times higher than that of normal stocks. Therefore, the best advice for ordinary investors is not to invest in Bitcoin.